Official Bracketology Thread

[RondaeShimmy]

OK- we all agree that the Zags are a lock.

And teams 2-6 are all very close.

On Saturday we will find out the exact order of them. But here are 2-7 and their remaining games vs. top 25:

Auburn - @Tennessee
Arizona- @USC
Kansas- @Baylor, Texas
Kentucky- Alabama, Arkansas
Purdue- Rutgers (not ranked but had to include them) @ Mich St, @ Wisconsin
Duke - none

Based on schedule -
Auburn is a lock with a win vs Ten
Arizona- Probably needs to win every game not including USC
Kansas # 1 may rest on game vs. Baylor
Kentucky will certainly be in discussion if they finish strong
Purdue- tough schedule... don't see them winning out to move up
Duke- Can win out, but needs a lot of chaos in front of them to move up

I disagree, I think Gonzaga, Auburn, Arizona are pretty much locked in.

Auburn losing to Tennessee would still have them as a 1 seed and a couple game lead and tiebreaker over UK. Arizona losing to usc ditto. Now if those 3 lose to multiple scrubs then they're in danger of losing it. I don't see it happening.

So now you have 3 teams basically fighting for the last 1. The 3 you included minus Duke.

You guys are only taking into account the regular season.

The conference Tourney's will also factor in especially if 5 teams are all vying for 2-3 spots.

Almost every year past top 3 seeds lose a lot during the conf tournaments, losing didn't hurt them much if at all come selection Sunday.

It does help however overtake someone to put the cherry on top but only in virtual resume ties.

I wouldn't mind Arizona losing in the conf tournament, almost every past eventual champion losses there (early too).

[97cats]

27-4 or better = #1 seed 99% guaranteed

thats it - thats all there is to it for Arizona. period.

29-2 = number two overall seed (SOUTH Region)
28-3 = guaranteed #1 seed (SOUTH or EAST Region)
27- 4 = 99% chance #1 seed (SOUTH or EAST Region)
26-5 = #2 seed (i dont see AZ losing three more games)

*the above assumes Gonzaga remains undefeated through the remainder of the regular season*

I notice you are discounting the fact that tinkle has been sandbagging the entire year just for tonight’s game and a run in the pac tourney. That way he can steal another extension.

lmmfao!!! dude i in no way underestimate the Tinkle ...but if AZ has national champ aspirations handling a three win OSU team at home shouldnt be an issue.

im going out on a limb here and looking slightly ahead to sat night.

[dmjcat]

27-4 or better = #1 seed 99% guaranteed

thats it - thats all there is to it for Arizona. period.

29-2 = number two overall seed (SOUTH Region)
28-3 = guaranteed #1 seed (SOUTH or EAST Region)
27- 4 = 99% chance #1 seed (SOUTH or EAST Region)
26-5 = #2 seed (i dont see AZ losing three more games)

*the above assumes Gonzaga remains undefeated through the remainder of the regular season*

Wrong and Wrong.

Using your logic we could lose to Oregon State and Colorado.............end up 27-4 and get a #1 seed?

And you don't even factor in the PAC12 tournament. We could get upset by an asu (heaven forbid) in the 1st round.

ALieberman has the best take on this........USC is the only school we can afford to lose to before the P12 tournament and not seriously damage our chances of a #1 seed...............and we still have to do well in the PAC12 tournament.

[97cats]

Almost every year past top 3 seeds lose a lot during the conf tournaments, losing didn't hurt them much if at all come selection Sunday.

yes

It does help however overtake someone to put the cherry on top but only in virtual resume ties.

yes

I wouldn't mind Arizona losing in the conf tournament, almost every past eventual champion losses there (early too).

yes maybe perhaps but still no for me

[97cats]

27-4 or better = #1 seed 99% guaranteed

thats it - thats all there is to it for Arizona. period.

29-2 = number two overall seed (SOUTH Region)
28-3 = guaranteed #1 seed (SOUTH or EAST Region)
27- 4 = 99% chance #1 seed (SOUTH or EAST Region)
26-5 = #2 seed (i dont see AZ losing three more games)

*the above assumes Gonzaga remains undefeated through the remainder of the regular season*

Wrong and Wrong.

Using your logic we could lose to Oregon State and Colorado.............end up 27-4 and get a #1 seed?

And you don't even factor in the PAC12 tournament. We could get upset by an asu (heaven forbid) in the 1st round.

ALieberman has the best take on this........USC is the only school we can afford to lose to before the P12 tournament and not seriously damage our chances of a #1 seed...............and we still have to do well in the PAC12 tournament.

you have been wrong on every take you have made in this thread for two months, this one is weak ass sauce again.

of course im assuming AZ doesnt lose to Oregon State just like i assumed Gonzaga wouldnt lose to Pepperdine last night.

you are a bad poster. forget what you post. and dont read well. and are just wrong 90% of the time. feel free to follow me around, you may learn something.

[Olsondogg]

I love love love reading/listening to experts. Just remember what they said at the beginning of this season as Arizona is now flirting with a 1 seed.

Here’s one of my favs. Norlander at cbs in the preseason:

Arizona: You'll get a spectrum of
feedback from around the Pac-12 on what
Arizona's forecast should be in Tommy
Lloyd's first season. I can promise you this
won't be the 29th best team in the sport in
November, December or even January. But
by the first week of March? Yeah, I'Il take a
chance and say U of A is playing at the level
of a No. 8 seed. An ambitious ranking, I
admit.

[Olsondogg]

27-4 or better = #1 seed 99% guaranteed

thats it - thats all there is to it for Arizona. period.

29-2 = number two overall seed (SOUTH Region)
28-3 = guaranteed #1 seed (SOUTH or EAST Region)
27- 4 = 99% chance #1 seed (SOUTH or EAST Region)
26-5 = #2 seed (i dont see AZ losing three more games)

*the above assumes Gonzaga remains undefeated through the remainder of the regular season*

I notice you are discounting the fact that tinkle has been sandbagging the entire year just for tonight’s game and a run in the pac tourney. That way he can steal another extension.

lmmfao!!! dude i in no way underestimate the Tinkle ...but if AZ has national champ aspirations handling a three win OSU team at home shouldnt be an issue.

im going out on a limb here and looking slightly ahead to sat night.

My post was a joke, just like tinkle.

[Beachcat97]

ALieberman has the best take on this........USC is the only school we can afford to lose to before the P12 tournament and not seriously damage our chances of a #1 seed...............and we still have to do well in the PAC12 tournament.

100%

[dmjcat]

27-4 or better = #1 seed 99% guaranteed

thats it - thats all there is to it for Arizona. period.

29-2 = number two overall seed (SOUTH Region)
28-3 = guaranteed #1 seed (SOUTH or EAST Region)
27- 4 = 99% chance #1 seed (SOUTH or EAST Region)
26-5 = #2 seed (i dont see AZ losing three more games)

*the above assumes Gonzaga remains undefeated through the remainder of the regular season*

Wrong and Wrong.

Using your logic we could lose to Oregon State and Colorado.............end up 27-4 and get a #1 seed?

And you don't even factor in the PAC12 tournament. We could get upset by an asu (heaven forbid) in the 1st round.

ALieberman has the best take on this........USC is the only school we can afford to lose to before the P12 tournament and not seriously damage our chances of a #1 seed...............and we still have to do well in the PAC12 tournament.

you have been wrong on every take you have made in this thread for two months, this one is weak ass sauce again.

of course im assuming AZ doesnt lose to Oregon State just like i assumed Gonzaga wouldnt lose to Pepperdine last night.

you are a bad poster. forget what you post. and dont read well. and are just wrong 90% of the time. feel free to follow me around, you may learn something.

I have learned that you have severe difficulty with reading comprehension, spelling, and grammar

I suggest YOU go back and read (again) your prediction. You stated we can go 27-4 and still get a #1 seed. You didn't say ANYTHING about not losing to Oregon State. That means that YOU are predicting that we could lose 2 out of three to OSU/Utah/Colorado and still get a #1 seed. I think you are wrong.

You might try THINKING before posting.

[Olsondogg]

I think it would be hard to keep a big 12 team off the top line, which is why I think Kansas gets it. Kentucky with an ailing TyTy is an issue until he gets right.

Injures will be an issue. Baylor losing their big man is a thing, maybe not in the same light as when we lost Bash, but it’s clearly an issue for them.

Additionally Arizona is projected as a 1 seed in all but 7/56 brackets.

[EastCoastCat]

Wayne will not be tinkling on our parade tonight.

But I am worried about the Utah/Colorado/SC road swing. If we come out of that 2-1 then the #1 seed is pretty much locked up imo.

[Alieberman]

ALieberman has the best take on this........USC is the only school we can afford to lose to before the P12 tournament and not seriously damage our chances of a #1 seed...............and we still have to do well in the PAC12 tournament.

100%

I'm also not that far from what '97Cats is saying.

He is saying lose 2 games and we are still guaranteed a #1.... I think 2 losses LIKELY still gives us a #1... but I'm not calling that a lock... unless we start to see losses from Kentucky, Kansas, Purdue

[97cats]

Wayne will not be tinkling on our parade tonight.

But I am worried about the Utah/Colorado/SC road swing. If we come out of that 2-1 then the #1 seed is pretty much locked up imo.

agree

i have said for weeks now that i dont see Arizona surviving the mountain swing without a loss especially playing at USC at 9pm tuesday night for the third game - if they do sweep three, Lloyd may just be able to walk on water.

now that assumes AZ takes care of business this weekend and holds serve at home.

[97cats]

I'm also not that far from what '97Cats is saying.

He is saying lose 2 games and we are still guaranteed a #1.... I think 2 losses LIKELY still gives us a #1... but I'm not calling that a lock... unless we start to see losses from Kentucky, Kansas, Purdue

thank you - and i didnt call it a lock - i said almost guaranteed yesterday and 99% sure today with Baylor and Kentucky's losses this week.

if Auburn losses at Tennessee on Saturday and AZ sweeps Oregon Schools then put it in the freezer.

[Olsondogg]

Purdue has a solid Rutgers team at home and then has to go to MSU and Wisconsin. That’s not an easy schedule.

Kentucky has a hurt TyTy and has to play Alabama, LSU and at Arkansas. Not easy.

Kansas has a game at Baylor, back to back TCU and then Texas at home.

Schedule advantage to Arizona.

[Alieberman]

I'm also not that far from what '97Cats is saying.

He is saying lose 2 games and we are still guaranteed a #1.... I think 2 losses LIKELY still gives us a #1... but I'm not calling that a lock... unless we start to see losses from Kentucky, Kansas, Purdue

thank you - and i didnt call it a lock - i said almost guaranteed yesterday and 99% sure today with Baylor and Kentucky's losses this week.

if Auburn losses at Tennessee on Saturday and AZ sweeps Oregon Schools then put it in the freezer.

True... you did say 99%!!!

Curious as to why you think Auburn losing helps our case? I think Auburn is very close to being a #1 seed lock... I don't think it really matters what happens in that game. I'm more wanting to see losses from Kansas, Kentucky, Purdue to give us some separation

[dmjcat]

ALieberman has the best take on this........USC is the only school we can afford to lose to before the P12 tournament and not seriously damage our chances of a #1 seed...............and we still have to do well in the PAC12 tournament.

100%

I'm also not that far from what '97Cats is saying.

He is saying lose 2 games and we are still guaranteed a #1.... I think 2 losses LIKELY still gives us a #1... but I'm not calling that a lock... unless we start to see losses from Kentucky, Kansas, Purdue

It would depend on what 2 teams we lose to. If we drop 2 to a combination of Oregon State/Utah/Colorado I don't see us getting a #1 seed.

People are also overlooking the PAC12 tournament. We could easily drop a 1st round game to an asu which would severely damage our chances at a #1 seed.

[Olsondogg]

Wayne will not be tinkling on our parade tonight.

But I am worried about the Utah/Colorado/SC road swing. If we come out of that 2-1 then the #1 seed is pretty much locked up imo.

agree

i have said for weeks now that i dont see Arizona surviving the mountain swing without a loss especially playing at USC at 9pm tuesday night for the third game - if they do sweep three, Lloyd may just be able to walk on water.

now that assumes AZ takes care of business this weekend and holds serve at home.

The mountain swing ain’t what it used to be this year. I think Arizona beats both.

Also usc is a paper tiger.


Also, IMO there are teams that people should hope are 1s and not 2s if they’d like an easier path to the final four. Root for and against teams at your own peril.

[Beachcat97]

ALieberman has the best take on this........USC is the only school we can afford to lose to before the P12 tournament and not seriously damage our chances of a #1 seed...............and we still have to do well in the PAC12 tournament.

100%

I'm also not that far from what '97Cats is saying.

He is saying lose 2 games and we are still guaranteed a #1.... I think 2 losses LIKELY still gives us a #1... but I'm not calling that a lock... unless we start to see losses from Kentucky, Kansas, Purdue

Here's what's most likely to happen with the teams you've mentioned:

AZ: lose two more total games before the NCAA tourney (@USC and in the Pac tourney)
Kentucky: lose one more reg season game @Arkansas
Kansas: lose one more reg season game @Baylor
Purdue: lose two more reg season games, @MSU and @Wisconsin

As others have been pointing out, I do think any further losses will impact AZ more than the other teams here due to conference strength. Still, it's harder for me to imagine AZ ending up a 2 seed right now than Kentucky, Kansas or Purdue.

[RondaeShimmy]

I wouldn't mind Arizona losing in the conf tournament, almost every past eventual champion losses there (early too).

yes maybe perhaps but still no for me

Can I convince you that it's best we lose there in the semifinals or something

2021 Baylor - lost in Semis
2019 Virginia - lost in Quarters/1st rd after bye
2018 Villanova - won conf tournament
2017 North Carolina - lost in semis
2016 Villanova - lost in final
2015 Duke - lost in Semis
2014 UConn - lost in final
2013 Louisville - won conf tournament
2012 Kentucky - lost in final
2011 UConn - won conf tournament
2010 Duke - won conf tournament
2009 north Carolina - lost in semis

Usually it's best to lose in conf tournament because it's really hard to win like 12-15+ games in a row if you haven't lost before the tournament. If you go into the tournament winning say 4+ in a row plus 3+ in the conf tournament and then 6 in the NCAA tournament, that's really hard to do. It usually means you're bound for a stinker of a game and if it happens in the tournament, well you're season is over

Right now Arizona has won 6 in a row.

[Olsondogg]

Auburn has games at Florida, Tennessee and miss St. they also have ole miss and South Carolina at home.

[97cats]

True... you did say 99%!!!

Curious as to why you think Auburn losing helps our case? I think Auburn is very close to being a #1 seed lock... I don't think it really matters what happens in that game. I'm more wanting to see losses from Kansas, Kentucky, Purdue to give us some separation

Auburn plays at Tennessee and Arizona lost at Tennessee and so did Kentucky. an Auburn loss at Tennessee helps Arizona's metrics and also improves Tennessee's profile which is a benefit to Arizona. also, Az fans was every team in the top 8 top lose every time they play, if that fan wants AZ to get a #1 seed so yes please root for them all to lose.

one thing also to consider, the committee loves to put teams in front of teams that they havent beaten during the regular season to prove their overall merit on the way to the title, an obstacle not yet conquered type of thing.

with Tennessee winning and their potential continued winning, if they jet to the top of the SEC and win out the remainder of their games including Auburn, they could move all the way to the two line and out of Arizonas way until potentially the ELITE 8 - as i suspect Arizona to be the #1 seed in the SOUTH Region and somewhere alone that seed line to see Tennessee's name. with the way they are playing and defend with the tough PG they have i would much rather them on the bottom half as a 2/3 than a 4/5.

[Olsondogg]

Having the #1 seed next to your name matters the most of anything.

[97cats]

Having the #1 seed next to your name matters the most of anything.

yes significantly

[Olsondogg]

Having the #1 seed next to your name matters the most of anything.

yes significantly

That combined with top 10 adjo and adjd is significant. Provides the perfect formula

[EastCoastCat]

Wayne will not be tinkling on our parade tonight.

But I am worried about the Utah/Colorado/SC road swing. If we come out of that 2-1 then the #1 seed is pretty much locked up imo.

agree

i have said for weeks now that i dont see Arizona surviving the mountain swing without a loss especially playing at USC at 9pm tuesday night for the third game - if they do sweep three, Lloyd may just be able to walk on water.

now that assumes AZ takes care of business this weekend and holds serve at home.

Our assumptions are exactly alike.

1-2 on that swing could happen. Colorado and our friend Boyle-r-head will be gunning for us.

[Alieberman]

Can't find it but someone mentioned Houston as a potential top seed?

I Just checked, they are #4 in the NET, but they are (0-3) in Quad 1 games... that's not going to get it done...

[Olsondogg]

As of now Houston is a 4 seed in danger of falling to a 5.

[97cats]

teams left with legitimate chance at #1 Seed (in order):

drivers seat

Gonzaga
Arizona
Auburn

in contention

Kansas
Kentucky
Purdue

------cutline - cutline - cutline - cutline-------

Duke
Texas Tech
Baylor
Tennessee
UCLA
Providence
Houston
Wisconsin
Villanova
Southern California
LSU
Illinois
Texas
Alabama
Ohio State
Arkansas

[Olsondogg]

1Auburn
1Gonzaga
1Arizona
1Kansas

2Kentucky
2Baylor
2Purdue
2Duke

3Villanova
3Texas Tech
3Wisconsin
3Providence

4Illinois
4Tennessee
4UCLA
4Houston

5Texas
5Michigan State
5Ohio State
5Alabama

[Beachcat97]

Auburn has games at Florida, Tennessee and miss St. they also have ole miss and South Carolina at home.

I could see them losing @Tennessee, who hasn't lost a home game yet this year.

[Alieberman]

I would say Odogg's seeding is pretty much dead on, as of today

[Olsondogg]

I would say Odogg's seeding is pretty much dead on, as of today

It’s not mine. It’s from bracket matrix which compiles all of them. The most accurate site imo

[RondaeShimmy]

Can't find it but someone mentioned Houston as a potential top seed?

I Just checked, they are #4 in the NET, but they are (0-3) in Quad 1 games... that's not going to get it done...

I feel bad for them, they lost two pivotal pieces from last year's F4 including their leading scorer for the season.

Yeah they play in a weak conference but the fact they only had a couple of loses before losing 2 in a row was impressive.

[TheCat]

So I like the conversation but what does it REALLY matter if you are a one or a two seed? I have trouble getting excited about seeds in a elimination tourney. I understand it is best to play teams that you should be better than but do you want to play Wichita State again if they are an 8 seed? You want to play Iowa who has a great outside shooter that can truly change a game? Do you want to play against a good pressing team? To me it is always about matchups.

[Olsondogg]

Yes

[Alieberman]

Based on odds of making to a Final 4... yes... I really want a 1 seed

[RondaeShimmy]

So I like the conversation but what does it REALLY matter if you are a one or a two seed? I have trouble getting excited about seeds in a elimination tourney. I understand it is best to play teams that you should be better than but do you want to play Wichita State again if they are an 8 seed? You want to play Iowa who has a great outside shooter that can truly change a game? Do you want to play against a good pressing team? To me it is always about matchups.

Ultimately facing a 4/5 seed in the s16 instead of a 3 seed is an easier path. 4/5 seeds also get upset more than any other.

Since the committee tries to keep teams as close to home as possible, and Arizona is likely to play 1st two games in San Diego, the 7 through 10 seeds on bracket matrix that would be eligible and could be 8/9 seeds are St Mary's, Colorado St, USC, Wyoming, TCU, Boise St.

We're likely to get St Mary's (since they can't be in same bracket with Gonzaga) and the best one of Boise st, Colorado St, Wyoming, TCU

[97cats]

I would say Odogg's seeding is pretty much dead on, as of today

It’s not mine. It’s from bracket matrix which compiles all of them. The most accurate site imo

thats great its almost the exact same as mine posted right above it - pretty fun when your team is in the top 3 on February 17th hosting a three win team at home - the numbers and speculation becomes pretty entertaining

youll be happily in bed by 9pm tonight beginning to doze off and dream of sunny pod locations and Southwest shuttles to San Antonio...

[EastCoastCat]

What was the stat...since 2007 except for UCONN the Natty winner has been a #1 seed.

Fuck yeah I want a #1 seed.

[UAEebs86]

What was the stat...since 2007 except for UCONN the Natty winner has been a #1 seed.

Fuck yeah I want a #1 seed.

I don't think that is correct.

EDIT: You were actually close if you would have said 2014. Only 'Nova in 2016 was a #2.


2021 1 Baylor
2020
2019 1 Virginia
2018 1 Villanova
2017 1 North Carolina
2016 2 Villanova
2015 1 Duke
2014 7 Connecticut
2013 1 Louisville
2012 1 Kentucky
2011 3 Connecticut
2010 1 Duke
2009 1 North Carolina
2008 1 Kansas
2007 1 Florida

[97cats]

What was the stat...since 2007 except for UCONN the Natty winner has been a #1 seed.

Fuck yeah I want a #1 seed.

I don't think that is correct.

EDIT: You were actually close if you would have said 2014. Only 'Nova in 2016 was a #2.


2021 1 Baylor
2020
2019 1 Virginia
2018 1 Villanova
2017 1 North Carolina
2016 2 Villanova
2015 1 Duke
2014 7 Connecticut
2013 1 Louisville
2012 1 Kentucky
2011 3 Connecticut
2010 1 Duke
2009 1 North Carolina
2008 1 Kansas
2007 1 Florida

look at that stat Uconn did it twice pretty great call from memory ECC

[EastCoastCat]

What was the stat...since 2007 except for UCONN the Natty winner has been a #1 seed.

Fuck yeah I want a #1 seed.

I don't think that is correct.

EDIT: You were actually close if you would have said 2014. Only 'Nova in 2016 was a #2.


2021 1 Baylor
2020
2019 1 Virginia
2018 1 Villanova
2017 1 North Carolina
2016 2 Villanova
2015 1 Duke
2014 7 Connecticut
2013 1 Louisville
2012 1 Kentucky
2011 3 Connecticut
2010 1 Duke
2009 1 North Carolina
2008 1 Kansas
2007 1 Florida

look at that stat Uconn did it twice pretty great call from memory ECC

Thanks...hey, I will accept being close considering how much shit I actually forget. If you don't believe me, ask my wife.

Don't talk to me about UCONN. I had to live with that shit from their fans here who think they invented basketball championships - both for men & women. And Storrs is a shithole. So glad my son and daughter had no desire to apply there.

[Alieberman]

Fuck UConn

Fuck Duke

Fuck Wisconsin

Fuck Illinois

[dmjcat]

Fuck UConn

Fuck Duke

Fuck Wisconsin

Fuck Illinois

You forgot asu

[Olsondogg]

Fuck UConn

Fuck Duke

Fuck Wisconsin

Fuck Illinois

You forgot asu

When have they beaten is in the tourney?

Douche

[EastCoastCat]

For us old-timers.

Fuck Miami-Ohio

Fuck East Tennessee State

Fuck UNLV

[UAEebs86]

For us old-timers.

Fuck Miami-Ohio

Fuck East Tennessee State

Fuck UNLV

FUCK SANTA CLARA!


FUCK UTEP!

[UAEebs86]

Whatever happened to RPI? God, it was the most important thing for years when it came to seeding.

[97cats]

Whatever happened to RPI? God, it was the most important thing for years when it came to seeding.

they still use it - here is a link (AZ #3 RPI)

https://www.cbssports.com/college-baske ... kings/rpi/