Official Bracketology Thread

[Alieberman]

Well... win tonight and we are #2

[97cats]

it all just continues to break perfectly for AZ and Lloyd

now go Vols

[KaibabKat]

Go Herbie!

[EastCoastCat]

Well, well, well. Love watching the bloodshed.

Now let’s take care of Business tonight.

[Alieberman]

it all just continues to break perfectly for AZ and Lloyd

now go Vols

Vols are not the same team on the road... I'm expecting a loss today vs the Pigs.

[Beachcat97]

The Auburn loss helps, of course. I wouldn't overstate the significance of Auburn dropping one today. They're for real.

The door is now open for Kentucky, Purdue or the Big 12 champ to snag a #1 seed.

[EastCoastCat]

The Auburn loss helps, of course. I wouldn't overstate the significance of Auburn dropping one today. They're for real.

The door is now open for Kentucky, Purdue or the Big 12 champ to snag a #1 seed.

I don’t think it’s that bad for Auburn. Road loss by 1 to a bubble/last 4 in team doesn’t knock them off the 1 line at the moment.

[Alieberman]

I would say Auburn only drops to 4.... but their loss certainly brings teams 5-8 a little bit closer....

[RondaeShimmy]

The Auburn loss helps, of course. I wouldn't overstate the significance of Auburn dropping one today. They're for real.

The door is now open for Kentucky, Purdue or the Big 12 champ to snag a #1 seed.

Auburn has to drop one more, still have a 1 game lead over Kentucky

Only tough game for Auburn left is at Tennessee, that's Kentucky's chance

[Beachcat97]

The Auburn loss helps, of course. I wouldn't overstate the significance of Auburn dropping one today. They're for real.

The door is now open for Kentucky, Purdue or the Big 12 champ to snag a #1 seed.

Auburn has to drop one more, still have a 1 game lead over Kentucky

Only tough game for Auburn left is at Tennessee, that's Kentucky's chance

We'll have to see how NET and RPI look after this Auburn loss. Keep in mind that Kentucky has wins over Kansas, Tennessee, and Bama twice. Auburn doesn't really have a signature non-conference win to boast of, certainly nothing as good as UK's win over Kansas.

Auburn losing today also helps Duke because the Devils beat Kentucky to start the season.

[97cats]

as of now i think Auburn is the number three overall but i want to see how the day ends before i say for sure

[97cats]

it all just continues to break perfectly for AZ and Lloyd

now go Vols

Vols are not the same team on the road... I'm expecting a loss today vs the Pigs.

i dont disagree but their metrics have been improving - one point game at the half at Arkansas who is very very good. a loss here isnt a killer but a win keeps moving them up faster than any other team over the last week.

such a great day today

[wyo-cat]

My concern all season is nobody wants to be standing between Duke and one final trip to the final 4 for the Rat.

[97cats]

valid concern - for now i think AZ is avoiding the Devils but they loom large as the rest of the games play out.

[Alieberman]

I think Duke still has 1 more bad loss in them

Trust the Process

[EastCoastCat]

I would love to end the rat’s coaching career but to do that you’d have to take away the officials whistles before the game.

[97cats]

I would love to end the rat’s coaching career but to do that you’d have to take away the officials whistles before the game.

certainly not happening in Philadelphia - keep AZ away

[TheCat]

Well we ended Dean Smith career and also Pitino till he came back to college. Might as well kill the RAT.

[EastCoastCat]

I would love to end the rat’s coaching career but to do that you’d have to take away the officials whistles before the game.

certainly not happening in Philadelphia - keep AZ away

But, but…I would love to see my Cats play near me.

But I have already predetermined I will be in New Orleans if certain things pan out…

[Beachcat97]

It's a win-win for me. Cats are either a #1 seed, or in the event things unravel a little, they'll be #2 in the west and I'll get to see them at the Chase Center.

[azgreg]

I want to restate that this is a far better conversation than we had last year. Far better.

[84Cat]

We dropped to 3 on KenPom, As much as we liked it, I don't think the algo's liked our weekend

[Beachcat97]

We dropped to 3 on KenPom, As much as we liked it, I don't think the algo's liked our weekend

Not sure the algos are capturing that we just took OSU and Oregon's best shot and still came away 2-0. The Beavers played the best I've seen them play in the first half on Thursday before we just imposed our will in the 2nd. And obviously Oregon had last night's game circled since Young was in diapers. It's been said by plenty here, but when you're ranked in the top 5, you're getting everyone's best shot. It's good prep for the tourney. Fuck the algos. We're 2 in NET and right on track for a #1 seed, barring any upsets over the next three weeks.

[RondaeShimmy]

This seems out of date already the same day it was released

I don't why they didn't do it Sunday or Monday as Saturdays are full of games

[pc in NM]

So, by all rights, Arizona should be #2 and KU #3 tourney seeds right now - and how far should Auburn slide?

Auburn #4 and UK #5?? Or, visa versa??

[Alieberman]

Auburn should be ahead of Kentucky

Kentucky has 2 more losses.
Auburn quad 1 + quad 2 (13-3 - no quad 2 losses)
Kentucky quad 1 + quad 2 (10-5- no quad 2 losses)

[RondaeShimmy]

1a - Gonzaga
1b Arizona
1c sec winner (auburn most likely w/ 1 game lead)
1d big 12 winner (Kansas most likely w/ 2 game lead)

This is pretty much set the rest of the way imo

[Beachcat97]

Impressive grind-out wins by Providence and Houston today. Both teams look dangerous for March.

[Alieberman]

1a - Gonzaga
1b Arizona
1c sec winner (auburn most likely w/ 1 game lead)
1d big 12 winner (Kansas most likely w/ 2 game lead)

This is pretty much set the rest of the way imo

This is probably accurate… with the door not completely shut on Purdue and Duke if they finish without another loss

[g32knights]

Impressive grind-out wins by Providence and Houston today. Both teams look dangerous for March.

Providence would be a handful, but Houston doesn't really scare me. I think the Cats would win by 10+.

[Beachcat97]

Impressive grind-out wins by Providence and Houston today. Both teams look dangerous for March.

Providence would be a handful, but Houston doesn't really scare me. I think the Cats would win by 10+.

I hear ya. But don't sleep on Houston. They were in the FF last year.

Still, this AZ team has the ability to beat anyone out there, and that includes Gonzaga and Auburn. If certain things are happening - Benn is attacking the rim, Terry is creating easy looks for AT and CK, Kriisa is hitting his threes, our bench is doing their usual thing - we can win it all.

The weird thing about the tourney is that you have to maintain a very high level of play for three weeks, with hardly any let downs. You certainly cannot afford an entire cold-shooting game, though we've really only had that vs. ucla (third game of a road trip). Otherwise, we've only ever had cold shooting *halves* this year. You can survive one of those in the first round but probably not in subsequent rounds.

You can see the confidence in this team's eyes. Yesterday, with Oregon in full attack mode and getting a lead on us late in the game, we responded by getting some good looks, drawing fouls and stepping up our defense. I never sensed panic in this team yesterday, not once. Their defense makes opponents uncomfortable, and then we're off to the races on offense. Easy looks for AT and CK, or transition baskets for Benn.

Guys, this is our best chance at a national title since '14.

[RondaeShimmy]

Impressive grind-out wins by Providence and Houston today. Both teams look dangerous for March.

Providence would be a handful, but Houston doesn't really scare me. I think the Cats would win by 10+.

I hear ya. But don't sleep on Houston. They were in the FF last year.

Houston was scary before they lost two important players in December for the year including their leading scorer from last year

Now they don't have much depth, and they were shorthanded before.

It was still impressive that they were basically a 2 loss team ahead of us in Net, Kenpom until a couple weeks ago when they lost two in a row.

[Beachcat97]

Impressive grind-out wins by Providence and Houston today. Both teams look dangerous for March.

Providence would be a handful, but Houston doesn't really scare me. I think the Cats would win by 10+.

I hear ya. But don't sleep on Houston. They were in the FF last year.

Houston was scary before they lost two important players in December for the year including their leading scorer from last year

Now they don't have much depth, and they were shorthanded before.

It was still impressive that they were basically a 2 loss team ahead of us in Net, Kenpom until a couple weeks ago when they lost two in a row.

I actually didn't know they'd lost those players for the year. Okay, maybe the Cougs aren't as scary as I thought.

[97cats]

teams left with legitimate chance at #1 Seed (in order):

lock

Gonzaga

drivers seat

Arizona
Auburn
Kansas

in contention

Kentucky
Baylor
Purdue
Duke
Texas Tech

------cutline - cutline - cutline - cutline-------

Villanova
Illinois
Tennessee
UCLA
Wisconsin
Providence
Texas
Arkansas
Houston
Alabama
Southern California

[Beachcat97]

teams left with legitimate chance at #1 Seed (in order):

lock

Gonzaga

drivers seat

Arizona
Auburn
Kansas

in contention

Kentucky
Baylor
Purdue
Duke
Texas Tech

------cutline - cutline - cutline - cutline-------

Villanova
Illinois
Tennessee
UCLA
Wisconsin
Providence
Texas
Arkansas
Houston
Alabama
Southern California

That's a good break down, 97 - thanks!

I'm still not confident Kansas will win @Baylor next weekend. The winner of that game will be pretty solidly in your driver's seat category. Auburn also has to go to Tennessee next weekend. Anyone feeling confident the Tigers will give Tennessee their first home less of the season? If Auburn should lose, Kentucky moves up to driver's seat.

And with our guys, we can probably remain on the 1 line with one more reg season loss, but not two.

[Olsondogg]

Kentucky is a better team than auburn imo

[97cats]

prospects improving - 2.21.22

29-2 = number two overall seed (SOUTH Region)/
28-3 = guaranteed #1 seed (SOUTH Region)
27- 4 = 99.9% chance #1 seed (SOUTH or EAST Region)
26-5 = #2 seed (i dont see AZ losing three more games)

*the above assumes Gonzaga remains undefeated through the remainder of the regular season*

[g32knights]

prospects improving - 2.21.22

29-2 = number two overall seed (SOUTH Region)/
28-3 = guaranteed #1 seed (SOUTH Region)
27- 4 = 99.9% chance #1 seed (SOUTH or EAST Region)
26-5 = #2 seed (i dont see AZ losing three more games)

*the above assumes Gonzaga remains undefeated through the remainder of the regular season*

If the Cats win out and Gonzaga takes another loss (even in their conference tourney) do you think the Cats would be #1 overall?

[97cats]

If the Cats win out and Gonzaga takes another loss (even in their conference tourney) do you think the Cats would be #1 overall?

conf tournaments are almost meaningless if both AZ and Gonzaga win out - now if either drop a game prior in the regular season that would change yes.

[EastCoastCat]

I see no chance Gonzaga loses to any of those weak ass teams in the WCC.

[97cats]

i dont disagree

[dmjcat]

prospects improving - 2.21.22

29-2 = number two overall seed (SOUTH Region)/
28-3 = guaranteed #1 seed (SOUTH Region)
27- 4 = 99.9% chance #1 seed (SOUTH or EAST Region)
26-5 = #2 seed (i dont see AZ losing three more games)

*the above assumes Gonzaga remains undefeated through the remainder of the regular season*

Completely disagree.

27-4 =99.9%% chance of a #1 seed ?? In what universe???

If we drop 2 games, for example, one at Utah and another one at home to Stanford, there is no way in hell we hang onto a #1 seed.

With all due respect, you seem completely detached from reality.

[Alieberman]

I 100% know that 97 is saying losses at USC plus 1 other road loss.

You know that too.

[Olsondogg]

Some people enjoy just being dickheads

[Beachcat97]

prospects improving - 2.21.22

29-2 = number two overall seed (SOUTH Region)/
28-3 = guaranteed #1 seed (SOUTH Region)
27- 4 = 99.9% chance #1 seed (SOUTH or EAST Region)
26-5 = #2 seed (i dont see AZ losing three more games)

*the above assumes Gonzaga remains undefeated through the remainder of the regular season*

You really think 27 - 4 gets us a #1 if we don’t win the Pac tourney? I think at that point it depends on what other teams are doing. Because if we finish with 5 losses but Baylor, Kansas, Kentucky or Duke, or Purdue runs the table, I think we end up #2 in the west.

[EastCoastCat]

Keep up guys...'97 has caveated things like 100x.

[TheCat]

Not the way they treat PAC12 teams To me one loss (other than USC) will move them off the one line.

[84Cat]

Just win baby

[EastCoastCat]

But it also depends what other teams do too. If they lose too then we can't say that for sure.

[dmjcat]

I 100% know that 97 is saying losses at USC plus 1 other road loss.

You know that too.

No, he did NOT say that.

He said 27-4 = 99.9% chance of a #1 seed without any disclaimers. Again, this is ludicrous. For instance, Should we lose to Utah this week and Kansas lose to Baylor the people that pick the brackets will look upon our loss far less favorably than Kansas losing to Baylor. Utah is not Baylor.