Road to the Final Four

[azcat49]

OOC won't have anything to do with it, its all about the value of the strength of the conference. Win the conference championship game and that team will be in the playoff.

The PAC winner will not be left out and it is comical anyone would think that at this point

[Chicat]

OOC kills Arizona in this conversation. Don't see it.

Overall SOS is still respectable.

[azcat34]

Baylor's OOC is even worse than Arizona's.

[azcat49]

If OOC meant anything then the whole SEC would be eliminated. Its not because of the perceived strength of the conference. They are 1A to our 1B

[FreeSpiritCat]

OOC kills Arizona in this conversation. Don't see it.

I've been one of those who has complained that our OOC is too weak and it could come back to bite us this year. We have 2 lucky wins and one unfortunate loss. It all depends how the committee weighs the season. Of course all of this is moot if we don't beat Oregon. I'd give that chance about 25%.

[ZONACAT]

Baylor's OOC is even worse than Arizona's.

Why Baylor isn't getting in. The only SEC team in contention is Alabama and they beat WVU.

[azcat34]

So TCU's win over Minnesota OOC will carry more weight than two wins against Oregon?

[desertdave]

OOC kills Arizona in this conversation. Don't see it.

Well...UTSA and UNLV pooped the bed, but Nevada finished strong.

If I remember correctly, the committee does not take strength of schedule into account. There is some strange twist involved that actually does involve strength of schedule, though.

Perhaps someone can explain this (or perhaps I've lost my mind).

Dave

[azgreg]

So TCU's win over Minnesota OOC will carry more weight than two wins against Oregon?

Maybe not, but losing only once instead of twice carries a lot of weight.

[azgreg]

OOC kills Arizona in this conversation. Don't see it.

Well...UTSA and UNLV pooped the bed, but Nevada finished strong.

If I remember correctly, the committee does not take strength of schedule into account. There is some strange twist involved that actually does involve strength of schedule, though.

Perhaps someone can explain this (or perhaps I've lost my mind).

Dave

http://www.collegefootballplayoff.com/a ... e-rankings

Data

Selection committee members will have a wealth of information including review of video, statistics and their own expertise to guide them in their deliberations. They will emphasize obvious factors like win-loss records, strength of schedule, conference championships won, head-to-head results and results against common opponents. The playoff group has retained SportSource Analytics to provide the data platform for the committee’s use. The platform will allow the committee members to compare and contrast every team on every level possible.

It should be noted that the committee will not use a single data point such as the Ratings Percentage Index (RPI) that is used for NCAA championships.

[azcat34]

So TCU's win over Minnesota OOC will carry more weight than two wins against Oregon?

Maybe not, but losing only once instead of twice carries a lot of weight.

So losing two instead of one isn't ok, but losing 1 instead of 0 is alright?

[azgreg]

So TCU's win over Minnesota OOC will carry more weight than two wins against Oregon?

Maybe not, but losing only once instead of twice carries a lot of weight.

So losing two instead of one isn't ok, but losing 1 instead of 0 is alright?

Since only 1 team has lost 0 I'm not sure what you are getting at.

[azcat34]

So TCU's win over Minnesota OOC will carry more weight than two wins against Oregon?

Maybe not, but losing only once instead of twice carries a lot of weight.

So losing two instead of one isn't ok, but losing 1 instead of 0 is alright?

Since only 1 team has lost 0 I'm not sure what you are getting at.

The committee considers two one-loss teams better right now than an undefeated team.

So why could they never consider a two-loss team better than a one-loss team, like it is some golden rule.

[azgreg]

The committee considers two one-loss teams better right now than an undefeated team.

So why could they never consider a two-loss team better than a one-loss team, like it is some golden rule.

I'm not saying they wouldn't and after we beat Oregon (that's what we're talking about here right?) and they beat Iowa St the strength of schedule might swing far enough in our favor. However, so far it hasn't. What priority do you put the factors that go into seeding this thing?

[azcat34]

The committee considers two one-loss teams better right now than an undefeated team.

So why could they never consider a two-loss team better than a one-loss team, like it is some golden rule.

I'm not saying they wouldn't and after we beat Oregon (that's what we're talking about here right?) and they beat Iowa St the strength of schedule might swing far enough in our favor. However, so far it hasn't. What priority do you put the factors that go into seeding this thing?

I've been using a 2nd Oregon win as an assumption since without that there is no chance Arizona makes it to the Final Four.

[ZONACAT]

So TCU's win over Minnesota OOC will carry more weight than two wins against Oregon?

You know that isn't how they break it down, it's entire body of work which gets complex when you start looking at it from different angles. Arizona might have better wins but we also have two conference losses and a cupcake OOC schedule. It's a lot to overcome.

If it was just about "quality wins", Arizona should be rated higher than we are now by the committee. We have the best win in the nation.

[Alieberman]

There is no way 2 Big 12 teams are put in the playoff.

None.

Zilch.

Nadda.

If we beat Oregon the Final 4 will be:

Alabama
Florida St. (provided they beat Georgia Tech)
Either TCU or Baylor (If they both win the Committee will chose 1 and 1 only to be in playoff)
4th. Either Arizona or Ohio St.

It's that Simple.

[ZONACAT]

If Arizona was already ahead Michigan State and UGA, I would start to feel this a bit more but even with the win at Oregon, Arizona was considered just the fourth best two loss team.

[UAEebs86]

This was BEFORE we beat ASU:

http://www.bcftoys.com/2014-sos

Arizona #11
TCU #60
Baylor #68
Ohio St. #71

[azgreg]

The committee will have a big decision if it comes down to a 2 loss Arizona with a much stronger SOS over a 1 loss TCU and Baylor for that 4th spot if it comes to that. In that scenario TCU's 1 loss is pretty strong as it came on the road to another team in contention for the playoff by only 3 points.

[ZONACAT]

This next poll will show a lot, if Arizona passes Ohio State/Baylor I'll start to become a believer. The committee has strangely been giving Oregon a pass for OL injuries that they had against Arizona, maybe someone in the room will bring up that Nick Wilson didn't play against USC.

[Alieberman]

This next poll will show a lot, if Arizona passes Ohio State/Baylor I'll start to become a believer. The committee has strangely been giving Oregon a pass for OL injuries that they had against Arizona, maybe someone in the room will bring up that Nick Wilson didn't play against USC.

We aren't going to be ahead of Ohio St and Baylor this week. But a 2nd win over the #2 team in the country will get us there.

[azgreg]

This next poll will show a lot, if Arizona passes Ohio State/Baylor I'll start to become a believer. The committee has strangely been giving Oregon a pass for OL injuries that they had against Arizona, maybe someone in the room will bring up that Nick Wilson didn't play against USC.

We aren't going to be ahead of Ohio St and Baylor this week. But a 2nd win over the #2 team in the country will get us there.

I'm not convinced of that. A win over Oregon won't be worlds better than a win over Kansas St. Ohio St I can buy if they don't play well in a win over Wisconsin. Of course if they lose that game all bets are off.

[azcat34]

This next poll will show a lot, if Arizona passes Ohio State/Baylor I'll start to become a believer. The committee has strangely been giving Oregon a pass for OL injuries that they had against Arizona, maybe someone in the room will bring up that Nick Wilson didn't play against USC.

We aren't going to be ahead of Ohio St and Baylor this week. But a 2nd win over the #2 team in the country will get us there.

I'm not convinced of that. A win over Oregon won't be worlds better than a win over Kansas St. Ohio St I can buy if they don't play well in a win over Wisconsin. Of course if they lose that game all bets are off.

A neutral win over Oregon won't be much better than a home win against Kansas State???

[Alieberman]

This next poll will show a lot, if Arizona passes Ohio State/Baylor I'll start to become a believer. The committee has strangely been giving Oregon a pass for OL injuries that they had against Arizona, maybe someone in the room will bring up that Nick Wilson didn't play against USC.

We aren't going to be ahead of Ohio St and Baylor this week. But a 2nd win over the #2 team in the country will get us there.

I'm not convinced of that. A win over Oregon won't be worlds better than a win over Kansas St. Ohio St I can buy if they don't play well in a win over Wisconsin. Of course if they lose that game all bets are off.

So you believe the committee is willing to put 2 teams into the playoff from a conference that is too small to have a conference championship game like all other power conferences?

[PieceOfMeat]

just for the record, i HATE having to wait until tuesday night to find out where we'll be ranked.

[azgreg]

This next poll will show a lot, if Arizona passes Ohio State/Baylor I'll start to become a believer. The committee has strangely been giving Oregon a pass for OL injuries that they had against Arizona, maybe someone in the room will bring up that Nick Wilson didn't play against USC.

We aren't going to be ahead of Ohio St and Baylor this week. But a 2nd win over the #2 team in the country will get us there.

I'm not convinced of that. A win over Oregon won't be worlds better than a win over Kansas St. Ohio St I can buy if they don't play well in a win over Wisconsin. Of course if they lose that game all bets are off.

So you believe the committee is willing to put 2 teams into the playoff from a conference that is too small to have a conference championship game like all other power conferences?

Care to point out where I said 2 teams from the Big 12 is getting into the playoffs? Not one person in this thread has said that.

[azgreg]

This next poll will show a lot, if Arizona passes Ohio State/Baylor I'll start to become a believer. The committee has strangely been giving Oregon a pass for OL injuries that they had against Arizona, maybe someone in the room will bring up that Nick Wilson didn't play against USC.

We aren't going to be ahead of Ohio St and Baylor this week. But a 2nd win over the #2 team in the country will get us there.

I'm not convinced of that. A win over Oregon won't be worlds better than a win over Kansas St. Ohio St I can buy if they don't play well in a win over Wisconsin. Of course if they lose that game all bets are off.

A neutral win over Oregon won't be much better than a home win against Kansas State???

I win over Oregon is better than a win over Kansas St but I don't think it would be enough to overcome our extra loss.

[Alieberman]

This next poll will show a lot, if Arizona passes Ohio State/Baylor I'll start to become a believer. The committee has strangely been giving Oregon a pass for OL injuries that they had against Arizona, maybe someone in the room will bring up that Nick Wilson didn't play against USC.

We aren't going to be ahead of Ohio St and Baylor this week. But a 2nd win over the #2 team in the country will get us there.

I'm not convinced of that. A win over Oregon won't be worlds better than a win over Kansas St. Ohio St I can buy if they don't play well in a win over Wisconsin. Of course if they lose that game all bets are off.

So you believe the committee is willing to put 2 teams into the playoff from a conference that is too small to have a conference championship game like all other power conferences?

Care to point out where I said 2 teams from the Big 12 is getting into the playoffs? Not one person in this thread has said that.

Then I am confused. Who is your Top 4 assuming Arizona wins?

[azgreg]

Then I am confused. Who is your Top 4 assuming Arizona wins?

If everybody currently ahead of us wins as well I think it's going to be Alabama, Florida St, Ohio St, and TCU. They might flip TCU and Baylor depending on how they win this weekend.

[FreeSpiritCat]

Then I am confused. Who is your Top 4 assuming Arizona wins?

If everybody currently ahead of us wins as well I think it's going to be Alabama, Florida St, Ohio St, and TCU. They might flip TCU and Baylor depending on how they win this weekend.

I think Ohio State is going to have a hard time winning. And if everyone in front of us wins it will be Alabama, Florida State, TCU (or Baylor), and Oregon.

[azgreg]

Then I am confused. Who is your Top 4 assuming Arizona wins?

If everybody currently ahead of us wins as well I think it's going to be Alabama, Florida St, Ohio St, and TCU. They might flip TCU and Baylor depending on how they win this weekend.

I think Ohio State is going to have a hard time winning. And if everyone in front of us wins it will be Alabama, Florida State, TCU (or Baylor), and Oregon.

This whole discussion is predicated on us beating Oregon and there is no way they put them ahead of the team that beats them twice. The only teams I think can sustain a loss is Alabama and maybe Florida St.

[Alieberman]

Then I am confused. Who is your Top 4 assuming Arizona wins?

If everybody currently ahead of us wins as well I think it's going to be Alabama, Florida St, Ohio St, and TCU. They might flip TCU and Baylor depending on how they win this weekend.

OK then I think we are saying the same thing.

3 spot- Big 12
4/5 Ohio St and Arizona.

[FreeSpiritCat]

Then I am confused. Who is your Top 4 assuming Arizona wins?

If everybody currently ahead of us wins as well I think it's going to be Alabama, Florida St, Ohio St, and TCU. They might flip TCU and Baylor depending on how they win this weekend.

OK then I think we are saying the same thing.

3 spot- Big 12
4/5 Ohio St and Arizona.

I agree with this. If Ohio State can beat Wisconsin with a sub QB then they deserve to go.

[Alieberman]

Then I am confused. Who is your Top 4 assuming Arizona wins?

If everybody currently ahead of us wins as well I think it's going to be Alabama, Florida St, Ohio St, and TCU. They might flip TCU and Baylor depending on how they win this weekend.

OK then I think we are saying the same thing.

3 spot- Big 12
4/5 Ohio St and Arizona.

I agree with this. If Ohio State can beat Wisconsin with a sub QB then they deserve to go.

For the record I was saying that the 4th spot is either Ohio St or Arizona... and I think they will go Arizona,

[azpenguin]

I don't think FSU gets in if GT beats them. The committee has cast a wary eye on the 'Noles all season, like they have a suspicion that they aren't really that good.

[azcat49]

FSU probably got a little uptick after the ACC went 4-0 against the SEC this weekend

[FreeSpiritCat]

I don't think FSU gets in if GT beats them. The committee has cast a wary eye on the 'Noles all season, like they have a suspicion that they aren't really that good.

This is a possible scenario too. FSU has pulled a lot of rabbits out of their hat, even more than UA. 7 wins by under one touchdown. One in OT.

[Sage&Silver]

OOC kills Arizona in this conversation. Don't see it.

'Bama : Western Carolina, Southern Miss, & Florida Atl.
tOSU: VTech, NAVY, Kent State.
Baylor: SMU, Northwestern State, Buffalo


Arizona's OOC isn't helping, but I don't see how it hurts given some other teams in the conversation.

[catgrad97]

Yeah, I don't expect either tOSU or Baylor to win Saturday, but if either do, Arizona's not being left out on comparative OOC weakness.

[Harvey Specter]

I think there is a lot of arguing going on between people who share the same opinions.

Some people think we pass tOSU with a win, regardless of the B1G championship game - I do not. I don't believe we surpass any 0 or 1 loss Big 5 Conference champion to make the playoff. The 1 possible exception is FSU... They have no real quality wins and a multitude of close calls against middling competition. A loss to Ga Tech and I'd be very nervous as a 'Noles fan.

I think even Bama's shaky if they lose to Mizzou... Which I don't see happening.

After those 2, anyone who loses this weekend is OUT. And regardless of what happens, does ANYONE see BOTH Baylor and TCU getting in the playoff? I think it's highly unlikely, and would require losses by Bama, OSU, FSU, & Oregon. In that scenario, we might end up the 2 seed. Have TCU and Baylor get beat too and we are likely wearing home jersey's in Pasadena as the 1 seed for the first playoff game.

I am very curious... Who thinks we do NOT make the playoff if simply we win and tOSU loses? And if not us, then who?

[Chicat]

I believe we pass OSU with a win for two reasons: 1) The two wins against Oregon are better than any wins OSU has, and 2) The overall strength of the conference mandates that there is a representative of the PAC in the final four with all else being equal.

[azcat34]

Re: Ohio State

http://www.collegefootballplayoff.com/s ... ittee-faqs

What criteria will the selection committee use to rank the teams?

The committee will select the teams using a process that distinguishes among otherwise comparable teams by considering conference championships won, strength of schedule, head-to-head competition, comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory) and other relevant factors that may have affected a team’s performance during the season or likely will affect its postseason performance.

[Catstatic]

Ohio State did not seem too impressive to me even before their QB went down. I will be very surprised if they beat Wisconsin. If they do, and Arizona beats Oregon, the committee will have a very difficult decision to be made: Alabama, FSU, Baylor/TCU and Arizona or OSU? Don't see how you could possibly leave out the Big X champ with only one loss. Also don't see how you can leave out the Pac 12 champ that had many more quality wins, including 2 victories over the second ranked team in the country, and is playing at full strength.

The playoff will eventually have to go to 8 teams: 5 conference champions + 3.

Make it simple: Wisconsin and Arizona victorious this weekend and it takes care of itself.

Go Cats!!

[azthrillhouse]

But instead let me ask this, what would it take to get to the Rose Bowl?

this is what I want to know!

I dont see a way unless we are a top 2 seed and hence deserving of home field advantage...and I think that would take losses by Bama, FSU,tOSU, and Baylor. Pretty thin.

Having said that...and of course being grateful for whatever happens from here on out.....I desperately want to have our Wildcat Woodstock in Pasadena....

[ANGCatFan]

Bleacher Report columnist gets it right:

Arizona

Record: 10-2

AP Rank: No. 8

Key Wins: at Oregon (Oct. 2), Arizona State (Nov. 28)

Losses: USC (Oct. 11), at UCLA (Nov. 1)

Given how highly the committee regards the Pac-12, it wouldn't be surprising to see Arizona make a last-second push toward the playoff with a week remaining. The Wildcats are in prime position: They're ranked in the AP Top 10, and should be a Top 10 team in the playoff poll, with the chance to win a conference championship. Additionally, Arizona has the chance to beat the same playoff-bound team, Oregon, twice.

With critics picking apart every win, it's tough to argue against a team that could potentially beat the Ducks twice away from home. There aren't any terrible losses for Arizona, either. The 28-26 loss to USC came on a missed field goal, and the 17-7 loss to UCLA isn't the worst thing in the world.

Arizona easily has the best chance of the dark-horse contenders to reach the final four.

[ANGCatFan]

A couple points to remember from Paul Myerberg at USA Today:

"I think it would be unfair if we didn't take into account injuries as they got into the later part of the season," selection committee chairman Jeff Long said more than a year ago. "They do play a factor in the strength of the team as they finish the year and go on to the playoff."

But one specific principle behind the selection committee's blueprint is clear. In addition to considering conference championships, strength of schedule, head-to-head competition and comparative outcomes of shared opponents, the committee would consider "relevant factors such as key injuries that may have affected a team's performance during the season or likely will affect its postseason performance."

Win and we are in!

Don't worry or overanalyze this week's ranking. We just need to beat Oregon and the conference championship, shared opponents, and Barrett's injury will take care of everything else.

I'm trying to figure out what scenarios would get us to the Rose Bowl and avoid a first round match-up with Alabama.

[Chicat]

A couple points to remember from Paul Myerberg at USA Today:

"I think it would be unfair if we didn't take into account injuries as they got into the later part of the season," selection committee chairman Jeff Long said more than a year ago. "They do play a factor in the strength of the team as they finish the year and go on to the playoff."

But one specific principle behind the selection committee's blueprint is clear. In addition to considering conference championships, strength of schedule, head-to-head competition and comparative outcomes of shared opponents, the committee would consider "relevant factors such as key injuries that may have affected a team's performance during the season or likely will affect its postseason performance."

Win and we are in!

Don't worry or overanalyze this week's ranking. We just need to beat Oregon and the conference championship, shared opponents, and Barrett's injury will take care of everything else.

I'm trying to figure out what scenarios would get us to the Rose Bowl and avoid a first round match-up with Alabama.

I think that's easy actually. If Arizona ends up at #3 then they go to the Rose, because if Alabama stays at #1 then they are going to the Sugar to play the #4 team (TCU? Baylor?) while Florida State would be sent to the Rose to play us. Sucks for FSU, but there's nothing the committee can do with having two southeastern teams at 1 & 2 while a west coast team sits at #3. We just need to avoid being ranked #4.

[PieceOfMeat]

A couple points to remember from Paul Myerberg at USA Today:

"I think it would be unfair if we didn't take into account injuries as they got into the later part of the season," selection committee chairman Jeff Long said more than a year ago. "They do play a factor in the strength of the team as they finish the year and go on to the playoff."

But one specific principle behind the selection committee's blueprint is clear. In addition to considering conference championships, strength of schedule, head-to-head competition and comparative outcomes of shared opponents, the committee would consider "relevant factors such as key injuries that may have affected a team's performance during the season or likely will affect its postseason performance."

Win and we are in!

Don't worry or overanalyze this week's ranking. We just need to beat Oregon and the conference championship, shared opponents, and Barrett's injury will take care of everything else.

I'm trying to figure out what scenarios would get us to the Rose Bowl and avoid a first round match-up with Alabama.

I think that's easy actually. If Arizona ends up at #3 then they go to the Rose, because if Alabama stays at #1 then they are going to the Sugar to play the #4 team (TCU? Baylor?) while Florida State would be sent to the Rose to play us. Sucks for FSU, but there's nothing the committee can do with having two southeastern teams at 1 & 2 while a west coast team sits at #3. We just need to avoid being ranked #4.

yup.

i also think an fsu matchup would be real interesting...if we can get that far.

[azcat49]

I thought I read where the committee could seed geographically to allow easier travel for teams and fans so the Rose would likely include AZ