Dalen Terry

[YoDeFoe]

I think one of the hardest parts of a first round guarantee this draft is that there is so much uncertainty in the 20-40 range of what guys will be taken where…

If you’re the Grizz with the 22nd pick - can you promise it to Terry when it’s possible that TyTy Washington or Kennedy Chandler could be available?

It has to depend on team need. I think to get a guarantee Terry needs a team that either is locked in on a wing or is lukewarm on prospects at its other need position(s).

Like with your Griz example, they may say, Ja is an allstar, we think we either re-sign Tyus Jones or have Melton as a combo backup, so we focus on adding wings.

Or maybe they don't. It all comes down to perceived need in conjunction with believing Terry is the guy and their view of other prospects.

That's a bit of what I was getting at with the Grizz (as a hypothetical). They have a need at PG but maybe they see Terry as a long-term upside play on the wing and they're okay with re-signing Jones to continue to handle back-up PG duties. But if a guy like TyTy or Chandler - who internally they had as lotto picks on their board - is available with the 22nd that likely changes their calculus since they would see those two as younger, cheaper, higher ceiling upgrades to Jones. They are unlikely to get a PG they love with their 29th pick, but probably could get a wing worth a gamble.

The draft board seems more fluid than normal this year, which means more variables to account for and less likelihood that a team locks themselves into a certain player at the back-end of the first round... because who knows who might be available.

Even reducing the variables to "a team that definitely will draft a wing, no matter what" - if Malaki Branham or Jalen Williams or EJ Liddell or Wendell Moore or McGowens or Beauchamp or Hardy or WHOEVER might be available, do you promise that spot to Terry?

I don't have any inside knowledge here, just doing the math that this feels like a tough draft to make promises in.

[AzCatFan2]

If a team is looking for a guy who will fit as a 3 and D guy next year, who can come off the bench and play 25 minutes, I'm not sure if DT is that guy. One phrase we hear about a lot of lottery guys is, "NBA body." And let's face it, at 6'7", 195 lbs, DT is still about 15 pounds of muscle before he has that body. Will DT be able to handle 82 games against players who all have NBA ready bodies?

Now, nothing says DT can't gain 15 lbs of muscle in the NBA, as most players do improve their bodies as pros. But the calculus for DT to be a first rounder is a team that can afford either an and of the bench project, or a first-rounder to play a year in the D-league while DT continues to mature. I'm no NBA scout, but I imagine DT trying to guard players like Benn, or bigger, on a nightly basis, for 82 games. I'd question whether DT could hold up for a full season.

The question is for DT, is there a team with a back-up 3 and D guy who will be on his last year of a contract next year, that in two years, DT becomes a much less expensive option, while being just as productive? Maybe, and if such a team exists, they might give DT a first round guarantee. Because honestly, if I'm an NBA GM, now matter how good DT looks at the combine, I question his durability with his current frame. One more year, more muscle added, and that question goes away. Whether DT bulks up in Tucson, the D-league, or on the end of a NBA bench is the question.

[Spaceman Spiff]

I think one of the hardest parts of a first round guarantee this draft is that there is so much uncertainty in the 20-40 range of what guys will be taken where…

If you’re the Grizz with the 22nd pick - can you promise it to Terry when it’s possible that TyTy Washington or Kennedy Chandler could be available?

It has to depend on team need. I think to get a guarantee Terry needs a team that either is locked in on a wing or is lukewarm on prospects at its other need position(s).

Like with your Griz example, they may say, Ja is an allstar, we think we either re-sign Tyus Jones or have Melton as a combo backup, so we focus on adding wings.

Or maybe they don't. It all comes down to perceived need in conjunction with believing Terry is the guy and their view of other prospects.

That's a bit of what I was getting at with the Grizz (as a hypothetical). They have a need at PG but maybe they see Terry as a long-term upside play on the wing and they're okay with re-signing Jones to continue to handle back-up PG duties. But if a guy like TyTy or Chandler - who internally they had as lotto picks on their board - is available with the 22nd that likely changes their calculus since they would see those two as younger, cheaper, higher ceiling upgrades to Jones. They are unlikely to get a PG they love with their 29th pick, but probably could get a wing worth a gamble.

The draft board seems more fluid than normal this year, which means more variables to account for and less likelihood that a team locks themselves into a certain player at the back-end of the first round... because who knows who might be available.

Even reducing the variables to "a team that definitely will draft a wing, no matter what" - if Malaki Branham or Jalen Williams or EJ Liddell or Wendell Moore or McGowens or Beauchamp or Hardy or WHOEVER might be available, do you promise that spot to Terry?

I don't have any inside knowledge here, just doing the math that this feels like a tough draft to make promises in.

First, thanks for the in depth answer. I agree with a lot of it. I figure on some level there's an understood thing that if you promise Terry the 27th pick and a top ten guy is shockingly still there, you pick Mathurin instead.

One thing you say is why I always was so so on Dalen's stock in this and any other draft...wing is the biggest positional glut in the draft. There's a rarity to big time point guards and bigs, but generally a fairly large number of guys who project to the 2 and 3.

Last year, by my count, 17 first rounders were wings, and that's without even reaching for combo guards or guys like Jalen Johnson. The 6'4 to 6'8 range tends to account for a ton of picks.

[azcat49]

So is the thought he is staying in the draft? I thought most here were saying he was coming back?

[Spaceman Spiff]

So is the thought he is staying in the draft? I thought most here were saying he was coming back?

He's helped his draft stock at the combine. I wouldn't speculate further than that.

[Chicat]

So is the thought he is staying in the draft? I thought most here were saying he was coming back?

He's helped his draft stock at the combine. I wouldn't speculate further than that.

Dalen’s going to need to be able to differentiate between “Boy we’d love to see you still available at pick 23” and “We will be taking you at pick 23 if you last that long”.

[Alieberman]

DT was at best the 3rd option on this years AZ team. He will be low on the depth chart on any NBA team for a while.

I wonder if being THE MAN for a year at AZ plays a role in his decision

[ChooChooCat]

DT was at best the 3rd option on this years AZ team. He will be low on the depth chart on any NBA team for a while.

I wonder if being THE MAN for a year at AZ plays a role in his decision

He wasn’t even the 3rd option, he was behind Benn, Zu, and Koloko.

[UAEebs86]

Wasn't he behind Krissa too?

[Spaceman Spiff]

Wasn't he behind Krissa too?

5th in field goals attempted per game.

Although it's a bit of a false choice because if he's either the man at Arizona or just in the NBA, I'd bet that's an easy choice to go.

[ChooChooCat]

Wasn't he behind Krissa too?

5th in field goals attempted per game.

Although it's a bit of a false choice because if he's either the man at Arizona or just in the NBA, I'd bet that's an easy choice to go.

Being the man at Arizona leads to high NBA draft pick more often than not.

[Alieberman]

DT was at best the 3rd option on this years AZ team. He will be low on the depth chart on any NBA team for a while.

I wonder if being THE MAN for a year at AZ plays a role in his decision

He wasn’t even the 3rd option, he was behind Benn, Zu, and Koloko.

I did say 3rd at best! At the start of the year he was certainly option #5

[YoDeFoe]

If Scotty Barnes, why not Dalen Terry (make it stop)

[Spaceman Spiff]

Wasn't he behind Krissa too?

5th in field goals attempted per game.

Although it's a bit of a false choice because if he's either the man at Arizona or just in the NBA, I'd bet that's an easy choice to go.

Being the man at Arizona leads to high NBA draft pick more often than not.

To lend a quantitative analysis to it, here's where our leading scorers have gone for a bit:

2022--Benn Mathurin, projected lottery.
2021--James Akinjo, likely late 2nd or UDFA.
2020--Zeke Nnaji, late 1st.
2019--Brandon Randolph, file not found.
2018--Deandre Ayton, #1 overall.
2017--Allonzo Trier (if you overlook the suspension) UDFA.
2016--Ryan Anderson, UDFA.
2015--Stanley Johnson, lottery.
2014--Nick Johnson, mid 2nd round.
2013--Mark Lyons, UDFA.
2012--Kyle Fogg, UDFA.
2011--Derrick Williams, #2 overall.

To me, it says what I think...being the man helps, but not without tools the pros value. Lyons, Fogg, Nick and Anderson would be the core of a fantastic college team and none went first round and most were undrafted and never played in the NBA.

My bigger point was that I think Terry is like most players. His dream is the NBA, not being the man and he's got a fairly certain place on an NBA roster, the dream matters more. A high pick gets you 1/10th of a second contract.

Edit: it's also interesting to note guys like Solo, AG and Lauri never led Arizona teams in scoring and went significantly higher than the guys who did.

[Chicat]

As your edit notes, “being The Man” doesn’t necessarily mean top scorer. I can certainly see a situation where Zu is our top scorer next season and Terry going significantly higher than him in the draft.

[Spaceman Spiff]

As your edit notes, “being The Man” doesn’t necessarily mean top scorer. I can certainly see a situation where Zu is our top scorer next season and Terry going significantly higher than him in the draft.

The man is a more complex question. I would argue that AG and Lauri were not "the man" while here. Nick was the alpha on the 2014 team and Trier was the alpha on the 17 team. Of course, that is just my opinion.

Solo vs Lyons is a close call. I'd tend to give it to Lyons because he was particularly dominant down the stretches of close games (for good and bad) but there's an argument for Solo.

In assessing the man, I wanted to at least strive for something objective so I didn't simply classify people to justify my own bias. I will say, if Dalen shoots 40% from 3, plays efficient basketball and defends well, he does more for his stock than if he leada the team in scoring on low efficiency. The NBA is NOT interested in him as a primary scorer or creator. They want D, spot up shooting and someone with good vision who can take advantage of what's there instead of creating.

[UAEebs86]

2019--Brandon Randolph, file not found.

[ChooChooCat]

So in the Givony Veesaar commitment article he says that Arizona is expected to lose Dalen Terry, take that for what it’s worth.

[goslingswagg]

So in the Givony Veesaar commitment article he says that Arizona is expected to lose Dalen Terry, take that for what it’s worth.

I'm sure we're working on it, but need a backup option if Leonard Miller doesn't work...could probably go more aggressively after one of the higher level NBA draft dropouts now that we would likely have a starting spot open.

[Alieberman]

I played on an intramural basketball league 1 year at the UofA rec. Our team was representing KAMP Student Radio.

As you can imagine... we weren't very good. And I..... well... I probably wasn't even the 5th option.

But 1 day... for some strange reason.... I couldn't miss. I was hitting every outside shot.

That day.... I was The Man.

My greatest sports achievement since playing pee-wee hockey goalie when I lived in Chicago and made the game winning save by slipping and falling and landing on the puck under my ass as it was shot towards me.

[Spaceman Spiff]

2019--Brandon Randolph, file not found.

I was searching for the level below UDFA.

[Beachcat97]

Terry’s decision is one of the bigger stay or go situations we’ve had for a while. He’s a borderline 1st rounder, not a lotto pick. I’m not sure anyone here has been projecting next year’s roster *without* DT. His return has been regarded as imminent.

Anyway, I wish DT success with his decision. Think it’s a win-win situation for him.

[HiCat]

I played on an intramural basketball league 1 year at the UofA rec. Our team was representing KAMP Student Radio.

As you can imagine... we weren't very good. And I..... well... I probably wasn't even the 5th option.

But 1 day... for some strange reason.... I couldn't miss. I was hitting every outside shot.

That day.... I was The Man.

My greatest sports achievement since playing pee-wee hockey goalie when I lived in Chicago and made the game winning save by slipping and falling and landing on the puck under my ass as it was shot towards me.

bwahahahha

[YoDeFoe]

Losing Terry, if that's what it is, will be the toughest "gone too soon to the NBA" since...?

[ChooChooCat]

Losing Terry, if that's what it is, will be the toughest "gone too soon to the NBA" since...?

Dude could’ve left behind a solid legacy, but if he goes, that’s basically all gone.

[Chicat]

Losing Terry, if that's what it is, will be the toughest "gone too soon to the NBA" since...?

Grant “Stepping Stone” Jerrett

[A1RZONA]

Losing Terry, if that's what it is, will be the toughest "gone too soon to the NBA" since...?

Dude could’ve left behind a solid legacy, but if he goes, that’s basically all gone.

well shit...

[YoDeFoe]

Losing Terry, if that's what it is, will be the toughest "gone too soon to the NBA" since...?

Dude could’ve left behind a solid legacy, but if he goes, that’s basically all gone.

Dude could have been in the rafters... he leaves and he's just another guy we briefly enjoyed.

[YoDeFoe]

Losing Terry, if that's what it is, will be the toughest "gone too soon to the NBA" since...?

Grant “Stepping Stone” Jerrett

Yeah but Jerrett didn't have Terry's love from the community or his lifelong fandom as a Cat or the surety that he could lead the team to something special the following season.

I'm struggling to place this departure, if that's what it is, in historical context.

[Beachcat97]

I'm struggling to place this departure, if that's what it is, in historical context.

Me too. It’s uniquely disappointing.

If you’d told me in March/April that he wouldn’t be back, I’d have brushed it aside.

Meanwhile, so many other highly rated programs are keeping key players. Again.

[Spaceman Spiff]

Losing Terry, if that's what it is, will be the toughest "gone too soon to the NBA" since...?

Who knows, but I'd say this...it spotlights that modern CBB is hard. I said it a lot with Sean Miller, and the same is true under Tommy Lloyd.

You need guys to play well, but not too well. You need guys with outstanding physical ability, but not too much that the NBA finds them attractive.

You lose guys you think you would like Mathurin and Koloko. Sometimes you lose more than that.

It's a tough world with unstable footing.

[ChooChooCat]

Losing Terry, if that's what it is, will be the toughest "gone too soon to the NBA" since...?

Grant “Stepping Stone” Jerrett

Yeah but Jerrett didn't have Terry's love from the community or his lifelong fandom as a Cat or the surety that he could lead the team to something special the following season.

I'm struggling to place this departure, if that's what it is, in historical context.

Yeah it’s definitely unique, because if he goes 1st round it’s not a dumb decision as it follows the Choochoocat guidance line in regards to when it’s appropriate to leave school since he is a sophomore, but I don’t think we’ve had many guys who were in such a no brainer position that if they came back just one more year they were basically a no brainer to go lotto the following year.

He’s just going to miss so many accolades and still be paid handsomely (even more so than last year based on fan admiration and his role on next year’s team. His term here just feels incomplete compared to others that have left early. He’s still very young too, so one more year wouldn’t hurt him at all in that regard.

[Merkin]

Thought I read where he is the youngest person (along with the best personality) in the draft at age 19. That's a lot of upside to work with.

Still will always be a Cat though, and wish him the best, unlike Grant Jerrett.

GJ is one of the "4 NBA players and TJ McConnell" Cat era, whom almost all of the predicted NBA players are out of the league, and guess who is in it. At least Jerrett did get a cup of coffee.

[Beachcat97]

He’s just going to miss so many accolades and still be paid handsomely (even more so than last year based on fan admiration and his role on next year’s team. His term here just feels incomplete compared to others that have left early. He’s still very young too, so one more year wouldn’t hurt him at all in that regard.

This is the hard part. DT could've been Pac POY and cemented his legacy as an all time great. If he really does leave, his AZ career feels incomplete, as Choo puts it.

[IndianaZonaFan]

Please come back!!!!!

but if you don’t. Go chase your dream. You earned it! We’re all just selfish old turds that want more out of you before you leave.

[Jefe]

Losing Terry, if that's what it is, will be the toughest "gone too soon to the NBA" since...?

For me it would be up there with Zeke, Nico, Rawle, and Stanley. I really wanted 1 more year of each.

[ChooChooCat]

Thought I read where he is the youngest person (along with the best personality) in the draft at age 19. That's a lot of upside to work with.

Still will always be a Cat though, and wish him the best, unlike Grant Jerrett.

GJ is one of the "4 NBA players and TJ McConnell" Cat era, whom almost all of the predicted NBA players are out of the league, and guess who is in it. At least Jerrett did get a cup of coffee.

Yeah his young age just makes it where staying one more year wouldn’t hurt his draft stock at all. He’s the opposite of Koloko in that measure.

[Spaceman Spiff]

Thought I read where he is the youngest person (along with the best personality) in the draft at age 19. That's a lot of upside to work with.

Still will always be a Cat though, and wish him the best, unlike Grant Jerrett.

GJ is one of the "4 NBA players and TJ McConnell" Cat era, whom almost all of the predicted NBA players are out of the league, and guess who is in it. At least Jerrett did get a cup of coffee.

GJ actually never formally played with TJ unless you count practice.

I never wish ex-Arizona players ill. Sometimes it works out, sometimes it doesn't. For a guy like GJ, he'll always be another draft pick and NBA player we can add to a stat.

[Merkin]

Losing Terry, if that's what it is, will be the toughest "gone too soon to the NBA" since...?

For me it would be up there with Zeke, Nico, Rawle, and Stanley. I really wanted 1 more year of each.

I was glad to see Nico go. Most disappointing PG since Shakur and Nico is already out of the league and playing in Europe.

Marcus Williams also comes to mind, although I thought that Lute told him not to come back if memory serves.

In retrospect, Nick Johnson should have stayed another year. Leaving early did not help him at all. Michael Wright too, RIP.

GJ actually never formally played with TJ unless you count practice.

Thanks, I stand corrected. I was thinking Brandon Ashley. Get those 2 mixed up since neither seemed happy at Arizona.

[Beachcat97]

I'm confident DT is going to do well as a pro. He's got the natural gifts, and he's very smart.

It's just that these college years are precious, and once they're gone, they're gone. I would think that the idea of leading this team next season, as part of a reinvigorated AZ program, *has* to appeal to him.

[Dave]

I just hope we have a backup plan.

[Beachcat97]

I just hope we have a backup plan.

I’m sure we do, but no backup plan for Dalen Terry is going to elevate us to the level that he might’ve next season.

[RondaeShimmy]

I view Terry as being tapped out as a player already so I don't really blame him if he stays in the draft.

Unless he becomes a sharpshooter overnight, getting his weight and strength up is basically only thing he needs to do to become better.

He can do that better while being a pro and being his only focus, if he gets a 1st Rd promise.

[TucsonClip]

Tapped out? We watching the same guy?

[YoDeFoe]

Yeah to Clip’s point it’s just… there’s so much more that he could do, adding scoring volume being number one. And with that he’s a different player. He’s not just a connector, he’s the the locomotive.

I want that for him. Maybe I’m tricking myself into believing my interest in his return is altruistic. But I still believe Arizona is the best place for him to take that next step.

[Chicat]

I view Terry as being tapped out as a player

“Eh, she wasn’t THAT hot…”

- Dude who was just broken up with

[UAEebs86]

This is why we can't have nice things.

[TheCat]

Guys if he is a first rounder he should run to the league. I love DT and his hustle and work ethic but what we will miss is about 8-10 games where he was outstanding. His rebounding for his size was always good but as a shooter just the end of the season. Everyone talks about being a volume shooter and upping his stock but it might do the opposite. He is a great kid but if he can get a commitment for the 1st round I will drive him to the airport.

[Spaceman Spiff]

Guys if he is a first rounder he should run to the league. I love DT and his hustle and work ethic but what we will miss is about 8-10 games where he was outstanding. His rebounding for his size was always good but as a shooter just the end of the season. Everyone talks about being a volume shooter and upping his stock but it might do the opposite. He is a great kid but if he can get a commitment for the 1st round I will drive him to the airport.

This is a reasonable point for me. His NBA role would actually be fairly similar to what he did for us last year. Make open shots, don't monopolize the ball, flash good vision, defend and rebound.

How he'd do as a guy who has to make plays and be a high volume scorer is both an unknown and sort of beyond what the NBA cares about. He's a Robert Covington type NBA player and we're looking at him to be in a substantially different role next year.

[RondaeShimmy]

Tapped out? We watching the same guy?

Yeah, I mean he's never going to be a scorer or a primary ball handler.

He's topped off as and destined as a 3&D player in the association. More college won't really help with that.

I wish he would come back because otherwise we'll be even slower and not very athletic team.