Conference Realignment

[azgreg]

[ChooChooCat]

This is the way.

[UAEebs86]

[RondaeShimmy]

[Merkin]

Looks like premium info to me. Can anyone copy and paste it?

[ChooChooCat]

Looks like premium info to me. Can anyone copy and paste it?

Here's a tip, to read Wilner's articles you have to be on your desktop. Once it pops up immediately hit Control + A, that will select all the text, and then hit Control + C, that will copy the text. Open up a microsoft word document and paste it there. You can read all his articles for free doing this.

[Merkin]

Looks like premium info to me. Can anyone copy and paste it?

Here's a tip, to read Wilner's articles you have to be on your desktop. Once it pops up immediately hit Control + A, that will select all the text, and then hit Control + C, that will copy the text. Open up a microsoft word document and paste it there. You can read all his articles for free doing this.

Thanks Choo!

[Captcarnage]

I dont like the idea of sitting in what would be the lame duck pac 10. (No pun intended). We would just be there until Oregon decides what they will ultimately do. We would end up in an even lesser conference when Oregon does leave. Boise and fresno do not move the needle.

We need Cedric Dempsey to come back and drag the other 5 to the Big 12 with us. Just like he did with ASU to the PAC 10.

There is no guarantee of any future invites from any conference for any team. Time is now to make our own destiny and not be a lackey waiting for some other school we dont trust to do anything that will impact us greatly.

[RondaeShimmy]

I think a merger makes the most sense for the two conferences, second best option is just joining the big 12.

Leftovers of the PAC 12(0) + Tech, Ok St, TCU, Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa St and then you add San Diego St (and maybe BYU and Houston to make and an even 20). Take out Wazzu and Oregon St if they want.

Get a fresh new contracts and deals

[AzCatFan2]

A BIG-PAC merger would be the third best conference in football, but not a distant third. Enough quality to be able to compete. Athletically it makes sense. But these are still universities, and it's not all about athletics. Think CAL and Stanford want to be affiliated with religious schools like Baylor and BYU? Remember, the original PAC-16, we were going to add Colorado, Texas, OK, OKState, TTech, and TAMU. TAMU said no thanks, and asked the SEC to join. Texas said what about Baylor? The PAC responded no to Baylor, but what about Utah? Texas declined. The PAC went with option B and added Colorado and Utah. Had Baylor been acceptable, we wouldn't be in the mess we're in today.

I understand the desire to be proactive, and waiting, hoping something good comes along is generally not a good business strategy. But it can be as long as there is an acceptable Plan B in your back pocket that isn't time sensitive. And for us, Plan B is joining the BIG 12. I doubt that invite will close any time soon. And if the SEC and BIG 10 both grow, the BIG 12 will have to respond. If we're left without a home then, we become a no brainer for the BIG 12. What other programs would be a better value for the BIG 12 if say, for example, Oregon and UW go to the BIG 10, and Clemson, FSU, UVA and UNC go to the SEC?

And while you can argue if we pulled the trigger now, we might force Oregon and UW to come along to the BIG 12, both UW and Oregon have expressed that this is not what they want. Any move these two schools to the BIG 12 would be temporary, and forcing their hands might mean we get left out if and when something better does come along. Better for us to wait and see if anything better does materialize. If not, we still have Plan B.

[azcat49]

Just wondering, the PAC has cherished the Rose Bowl and we still own half of that so to speak. What happens if we merge or if the conference folds and teams go several directions?

Another thought is why can’t we use the Rose Bowl in our TV right negotiation? It has value as the Granddaddy of them all

[RondaeShimmy]

[Basketcats]

Wish the Big12 and Pac12 would just stop dicking around and merge. Send the Beavers and Wazzu to MWC. The rest of the PAC12 and BIG12 merge into a single super-conference and try to pull in Notre Dame at the same time. I know Notre Dame joining another conference is more than likely what is going to happen but it is worth a shot.

[azgreg]

Wish the Big12 and Pac12 would just stop dicking around and merge. Send the Beavers and Wazzu to MWC. The rest of the PAC12 and BIG12 merge into a single super-conference and try to pull in Notre Dame at the same time. I know Notre Dame joining another conference is more than likely what is going to happen but it is worth a shot.

There isn't a mechanism in the PAC-12 bylaws to just jettison a team from the conference.

[Basketcats]

Wish the Big12 and Pac12 would just stop dicking around and merge. Send the Beavers and Wazzu to MWC. The rest of the PAC12 and BIG12 merge into a single super-conference and try to pull in Notre Dame at the same time. I know Notre Dame joining another conference is more than likely what is going to happen but it is worth a shot.

There isn't a mechanism in the PAC-12 bylaws to just jettison a team from the conference.

Let me rephrase it....
The PAC12 needs to dissolve itself and then the BIG12 needs to absorb all former PAC12 members except the Beavers and Wazzu. Once they have done that, try to pull in Notre Dame.

[U.P. Zona Fan]

In my mind, a conference with 20 + teams is ridiculous, also Notre Dame to the PAC seems, counter intuitive.

So that is probably what will happen.

In that world we bolt for the SEC because we are the only team out of all the 23 that got an invite.

[RondaeShimmy]

[EastCoastCat]

Misery loves company...

[Basketcats]

Who the hell was it here that said George might end up being a decent commish? The guy better have one helluva magic wand up his ass that is gonna fix this $hitshow of a conference.

[ztonyg]

Except they won't be sticking together. Oregon will leave the first chance they get and then we'll be plunged into mediocrity.

Us and ASU need to get out and join the Big 12 ASAP.

[dmjcat]

I would love to see the numbers ($$$$$$) behind this decision.

I still find it hard to believe that the per team payout for the neutered PAC10 would be greater than an expanded Big12 including the corner schools...........I could be full of shit.

[84Cat]

Why do you guys think George would want to dissolve the pac 10 and put himself out of a job? It's just all about survival at this point. If we want a different result, we are on our own so we should be more upset with Bobby & Co than George

[Basketcats]

Why do you guys think George would want to dissolve the pac 10 and put himself out of a job? It's just all about survival at this point. If we want a different result, we are on our own so we should be more upset with Bobby & Co than George

That is what I was trying to say indirectly in my previous post. This guy is looking out for himself and I think A$$U has to agree to leave the conference (which they aren't wanting to) in order for Arizona to go ahead and tell the conference they're leaving. Relegated to eternal mediocrity.

[RondaeShimmy]

Why do you guys think George would want to dissolve the pac 10 and put himself out of a job? It's just all about survival at this point. If we want a different result, we are on our own so we should be more upset with Bobby & Co than George

That is what I was trying to say indirectly in my previous post. This guy is looking out for himself and I think A$$U has to agree to leave the conference (which they aren't wanting to) in order for Arizona to go ahead and tell the conference they're leaving. Relegated to eternal mediocrity.

The commissioner doesn't control the schools who themselves want to stay, other than Arizona and Colorado it seems.

Oregon and Washington want to bounce but the two big leagues don't have want them.

[Merkin]

If the Big 10 is offering $100M yearly to USC and UCLA, why would Oregon and UDub stay in the PAC for $20m per?

Why would any team outside of WSU and ntOSU?

[EastCoastCat]

They had to say they were sticking together because they don't have any fucking options at this point!

I hope our administration gets that, but then again I know who's in charge and I just want to throw up.

[RondaeShimmy]

If the Big 10 is offering $100M yearly to USC and UCLA, why would Oregon and UDub stay in the PAC for $20m per?

Why would any team outside of WSU and ntOSU?

Because they don't want them (Oregon/Washington), they only bring in $60 million dollars of value. So they would be taking more than they bring in.

Why others want to stay for revenue in the $20s million yearly per school, who knows other than stability?

The SEC has said they don't want to expand further even if the B1G gets ND. The ACC is stuck until 2036 and impossible for anyone to get out of it.

I think the Pac is banking on ESPN (and possibly others when the 30 day exclusive negotiations end) seeing the bigger west coast markets as more important and viable. And most importantly, going to the Big 12 is a lateral move currently.

[RondaeShimmy]

[84Cat]

Yeah, Cal is fucked in a big way

[dmjcat]

Article without the paywall:

https://www.sgvtribune.com/2022/07/12/h ... ion-cited/

Most important quotes from the article:

A spokesperson for the UC Office of the President said the regents had no authority to prevent UCLA’s move, which became official June 30:

“There is no requirement for a decision from the University of California Board of Regents or the Office of the President.”

[Merkin]

UC schools are very independent compared to Arizona universities.

[RondaeShimmy]

ESPN is in an exclusive, 30-day negotiating window with the conference right now. I believe that explains why we’ve had a lull when it comes to realignment news. The conference members are waiting to see what kind of offer the Pac-12 will get.

Said Thompson, “ESPN needs the Pac-12 more than anybody and will likely pay more than anyone else. They like West Coast windows for football. They like basketball inventory and they might actually be able to make something out of the Pac-12 Networks. They also need content for ESPN+.”

[PHXCATS]

Was just about to post that. Everyone hates the late kickoffs but espn pays a huge premium for that window. PAC-12 has been getting far more money than deserved because of that window

[azcat49]

But I doubt they care if the schools are aligned in a PAC conference or in a merger with the Big 12. All they care about is if the west coast schools are in a conference that they control I would think.

Let’s say we hand together, how long does that last? At the first offer from a SEC or B1G any of our remaining conference schools are gone

[azgreg]

We should have a poll on how much per school FSPN bids.

[GlobalCat]

Article without the paywall:

https://www.sgvtribune.com/2022/07/12/h ... ion-cited/

Most important quotes from the article:

A spokesperson for the UC Office of the President said the regents had no authority to prevent UCLA’s move, which became official June 30:

“There is no requirement for a decision from the University of California Board of Regents or the Office of the President.”

The loss of revenue impact on Cal is severe. I can see them being part of a lawsuit in addition to existing UCLA student-athletes in Olympic sports (particularly those that attract more rigorous students) that don't want to spend their college experience on plane flights.

[PHXCATS]

We should have a poll on how much per school FSPN bids.

Early estimates are about 30M

[RondaeShimmy]

We should have a poll on how much per school FSPN bids.

Early estimates are about 30M

What? The Pac 12 had a contract that was paying schools about $33 million per school WITH USC and UCLA.

The LA schools leaving is expected to cost the conference 40% of it's value. It's likely to be in the $20s of millions per year per school.

[AzCatFan2]

I would imagine a TV contract with the PAC 12 minus 2 split 10 ways is still likely larger, per school, than the BIG 12 plus the four corner PAC schools. This is why Utah, Colorado, and ASu don't seem to intent on moving right away. If the BIG 12 can add six, including Oregon and UW, that might tip the scale in the BIG 12 favor. But remember, Oregon and UW think they can do better and don't want to be a part of the BIG 12.

So, where does that leave us? Keep the lines of communication with the BIG 12 open in case we need to move quickly, but let the process play out. Let's see where the PAC 12 minus 2 contract lands and whether the PAC can find some schools to expand that are worth it. I'm not optimistic, but I don't see the invitation to the BIG 12 dissipating if we tell them we like them, but it's a business decision, and we want to see what our other options are.

[PHXCATS]

We should have a poll on how much per school FSPN bids.

Early estimates are about 30M

What? The Pac 12 had a contract that was paying schools about $33 million per school WITH USC and UCLA.

The LA schools leaving is expected to cost the conference 40% of it's value. It's likely to be in the $20s of millions per year per school.

https://trojanswire.usatoday.com/2022/0 ... otiations/

Estimates 600M per year with USC and UCLA. We have seen many places says USC and UCLA take 40% away so you are now at 360M a year. Even drop it down a bit more you are splitting over $300M over ten teams

[azcat49]

This is where George will earn his money. Those rights should include some streaming revenue and I heard they would like to take over radio and other broadcast rights as well. If there are multiple tiers of revenue maybe we can inflate that number to 40m a school

[AzCatFan2]

We'll find out just how important the late night, 10:00 PM Eastern start time is to ESPN. And maybe this is where an alliance with the ACC can help a little. The PAC would have to agree to a marquee early game on the east coast, and the ACC a late start on the west. We're talking UW at FSU, Clemson at Oregon, CAL at UNC, and maybe a 1993 Fiesta rematch with Miami at Arizona. Interesting, intersectional games that could bump a TV contract up from maybe $300M to $350M to $400M and make it worth our while.

Regardless, I can't see any deal being long term. Or without a relatively cheap buy out. Because once a better option comes along, the remaining PAC teams who get the call will bolt. In a perfect world, we get a call up with them. If not, we can soft land in the BIG 12, as it is highly doubtful the BIG 12 will offer a big enough package to get UW and Oregon to jump. And if/when they do, the BIG 12 will then look to gobble up the best PAC leftovers.

[Postmaster]

I don’t understand how the UC system or Berkley could sue UCLA. There are a lot of UC schools not in the same conference.

Could someone explain what I might be missing?

[UAEebs86]

[PHXCATS]

The math is extremely fuzzy. The Big 12 goes up when Texas and Oklahoma leave.

ACC is way too high as well

[Merkin]

can kind of see why the Big 10 wouldn't want Oregon and Udub to come in since they can't bring in this much.

[U.P. Zona Fan]

The math is extremely fuzzy. The Big 12 goes up when Texas and Oklahoma leave.

ACC is way too high as well

They should bump a little per school since there will be fewer to pay out to, plus I think that was the year of the expanded CFP, even the PAC bumps that year.

[PHXCATS]

As if now the Big 12 will have Texas and Oklahoma for one year (2025) with BYU Cincinnati Houston and UCF. The next year it goes up when they leave. Makes no sense

Also the acc is in an awful deal until 2036. Those numbers increasing like that for theACC don't work out with that deal in place

[PHXCATS]

By no means am I saying stick in the PAC. I just think this math is off and it makes sense to at least see what espn says during the exclusive window which closes in three weeks

[RondaeShimmy]