Official Bracketology Thread

Captain Obvious · Post by **Captain Obvious** » Sat Feb 04, 2023 12:03 pm

Brackets and seedings aside I believe this team's ceiling is the Sweet 16. I don't think we have strong enough point guard play nor the athleticism to advance very far. I think as we head into the final stretch of the season we play several teams that aren't going to test us enough with the exception of UCLA and USC. That does little to prepare us for the rigors of the NCAA tournament. I still believe UCLA is the best team in the conference and has the most potential for a deep post season run. I know that's not a popular opinion but it's a realistic one. I guess time will tell if I'm correct and it usually does.

CardiacCats97 · Post by **CardiacCats97** » Sat Feb 04, 2023 1:14 pm

84Cat wrote: ↑Sat Feb 04, 2023 11:37 am We still have work to do

A lot of top teams in action today (including Tennessee who is at the half right now and apparently allergic to offense). We just need to keep winning and hopefully the few teams ahead of us lose a couple.

PHXCATS · Post by **PHXCATS** » Sat Feb 04, 2023 2:41 pm

84Cat wrote: ↑Sat Feb 04, 2023 11:37 am We still have work to do

While I agree the majority of the 90 are not updated daily

azgreg · Post by **azgreg** » Sat Feb 04, 2023 4:32 pm

PHXCATS wrote: ↑Sat Feb 04, 2023 2:41 pm
84Cat wrote: ↑Sat Feb 04, 2023 11:37 am We still have work to do

While I agree the majority of the 90 are not updated daily

A lot of them aren't updated often at all.

pc in NM · Post by **pc in NM** » Sat Feb 04, 2023 5:00 pm

azgreg wrote: ↑Sat Feb 04, 2023 4:32 pm
PHXCATS wrote: ↑Sat Feb 04, 2023 2:41 pm
84Cat wrote: ↑Sat Feb 04, 2023 11:37 am We still have work to do

While I agree the majority of the 90 are not updated daily
A lot of them aren't updated often at all.

None of them really mean a damn thing today!

U.P. Zona Fan · Post by **U.P. Zona Fan** » Sat Feb 04, 2023 9:37 pm

Captain Obvious wrote: ↑Sat Feb 04, 2023 12:03 pm Brackets and seedings aside I believe this team's ceiling is the Sweet 16. I don't think we have strong enough point guard play nor the athleticism to advance very far. I think as we head into the final stretch of the season we play several teams that aren't going to test us enough with the exception of UCLA and USC. That does little to prepare us for the rigors of the NCAA tournament. I still believe UCLA is the best team in the conference and has the most potential for a deep post season run. I know that's not a popular opinion but it's a realistic one. I guess time will tell if I'm correct and it usually does.

Your brain's got the ceiling.

g32knights · Post by **g32knights** » Mon Feb 06, 2023 6:54 am

84Cat wrote: ↑Sat Feb 04, 2023 11:37 am We still have work to do

Now UA is 5th, jumped Tennessee, I really don't understand the Houston love though.

wyo-cat · Post by **wyo-cat** » Mon Feb 06, 2023 7:52 am

Captain Obvious wrote: ↑Sat Feb 04, 2023 12:03 pm Brackets and seedings aside I believe this team's ceiling is the Sweet 16. I don't think we have strong enough point guard play nor the athleticism to advance very far. I think as we head into the final stretch of the season we play several teams that aren't going to test us enough with the exception of UCLA and USC. That does little to prepare us for the rigors of the NCAA tournament. I still believe UCLA is the best team in the conference and has the most potential for a deep post season run. I know that's not a popular opinion but it's a realistic one. I guess time will tell if I'm correct and it usually does.

I would have fully agreed with this after the Wazzu game.

The way this team has responded to that loss and increased the defensive play. Sky’s the limit with this team.

CardiacCats97 · Post by **CardiacCats97** » Mon Feb 06, 2023 8:32 am

Isn’t our PG leading the conference in assists? Isn’t he also leading the conference in three pointers made?

This “weak point guard play” trope isn’t holding up under the weight of reality.

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Mon Feb 06, 2023 9:17 am

Having watched this team a lot of years, I’d say this current team has as good a shot to reach the FF as our best teams over the past 10-15 years.

U.P. Zona Fan · Post by **U.P. Zona Fan** » Thu Feb 09, 2023 6:12 am

https://www.on3.com/news/espn-updated-b ... tucky-usc/

Oh my gosh, something is wrong at ESPiN, they have us as a 1seed.

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Thu Feb 09, 2023 1:23 pm

U.P. Zona Fan wrote: ↑Thu Feb 09, 2023 6:12 am https://www.on3.com/news/espn-updated-b ... tucky-usc/

Oh my gosh, something is wrong at ESPiN, they have us as a 1seed.

We're definitely in the mix for a #1, but there's very little margin for error. We have a slightly better shot at a #1 than ucla (regardless of the outcome at Pauley) because our resume is much better than theirs. I'm less concerned with a #1 seed than with staying in the West. Really wanna be in that Vegas regional.

U.P. Zona Fan · Post by **U.P. Zona Fan** » Thu Feb 09, 2023 4:00 pm

Yeah, I agree, at this point we have one of the top 4 resumes, it's just crazy to see ESPiN acknowledge that fact.

I wanna be in Vegas also, it would be our crowd!!!

TheCat · Post by **TheCat** » Thu Feb 09, 2023 4:52 pm

2 seed in Vegas is fine by me.

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Thu Feb 09, 2023 5:41 pm

TheCat wrote: ↑Thu Feb 09, 2023 4:52 pm 2 seed in Vegas is fine by me.

Yep. 2 or 3, really. Avoid that #1 seed until the E8. With potentially two more games vs. ucla (and usc), still a lot of big games left with seeding implications.

Alieberman · Post by **Alieberman** » Fri Feb 10, 2023 8:10 am

If UCLA wins the Pac- they will be in the West and we will be shipped out. (Unless they win regular season and we win Pac Tourney)

pc in NM · Post by **pc in NM** » Fri Feb 10, 2023 10:57 am

Alieberman wrote: ↑Fri Feb 10, 2023 8:10 am If UCLA wins the Pac- they will be in the West and we will be shipped out. (Unless they win regular season and we win Pac Tourney)

Which, IMNSHO, means we have a hell of a lot of great basketball to be looking forward to!!!

WTF does "Bear Down!!!" mean, anyways????

There are only a small minority of college basketball fans today who have this opportunity with their favorite teams!!!

dovecanyoncat · Post by **dovecanyoncat** » Fri Feb 10, 2023 11:30 am

pc in NM wrote: ↑Fri Feb 10, 2023 10:57 am WTF does "Bear Down!!!" mean, anyways????

It's a midwife's instruction.

TheCat · Post by **TheCat** » Fri Feb 10, 2023 11:37 am

I believe we started the PAC at 4-3. We have some warts but so does every other team.

If you recall Tommy indicated he had a talk with Pelle about expectations and actually showed some tape where he was getting out run during breaks. I think we saw the results of that coaching in the last few games and especially against Cal where he was out front.

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Fri Feb 10, 2023 12:25 pm

Alieberman wrote: ↑Fri Feb 10, 2023 8:10 am If UCLA wins the Pac- they will be in the West and we will be shipped out. (Unless they win regular season and we win Pac Tourney)

If ucla wins the reg season title and we win the Pac tourney, I think we'll stay in the west because our tourney resume is just better than theirs, almost regardless of what happens the rest of the way.

I actually think the only way we *won't* be in the west is if we finish 2nd in the Pac, lose @Pauley and finish 2nd or lower in the Pac tourney. If only two of those happen, still think we'll be in the west.

We're also not taking into consideration what Houston and Texas are doing. They're both possible #1 seeds, and if the Pac gets messy, we could have one of them as the #1 in the West.

dmjcat · Post by **dmjcat** » Fri Feb 10, 2023 12:37 pm

Beachcat97 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 10, 2023 12:25 pm
Alieberman wrote: ↑Fri Feb 10, 2023 8:10 am If UCLA wins the Pac- they will be in the West and we will be shipped out. (Unless they win regular season and we win Pac Tourney)
If ucla wins the reg season title and we win the Pac tourney, I think we'll stay in the west because our tourney resume is just better than theirs, almost regardless of what happens the rest of the way.

I actually think the only way we *won't* be in the west is if we finish 2nd in the Pac, lose @Pauley and finish 2nd or lower in the Pac tourney. If only two of those happen, still think we'll be in the west.

We're also not taking into consideration what Houston and Texas are doing. They're both possible #1 seeds, and if the Pac gets messy, we could have one of them as the #1 in the West.

I think we are actually in a better position than UCLA. We have a better Quad 1 record and we have already beaten them. We only need to win 1 of 2 games vs. UCLA (at Pauley or in the PAC12 tourney final (assuming we get there)) to get seeded in the West.

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Fri Feb 10, 2023 12:40 pm

dmjcat wrote: ↑Fri Feb 10, 2023 12:37 pm
Beachcat97 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 10, 2023 12:25 pm
Alieberman wrote: ↑Fri Feb 10, 2023 8:10 am If UCLA wins the Pac- they will be in the West and we will be shipped out. (Unless they win regular season and we win Pac Tourney)
If ucla wins the reg season title and we win the Pac tourney, I think we'll stay in the west because our tourney resume is just better than theirs, almost regardless of what happens the rest of the way.

I actually think the only way we *won't* be in the west is if we finish 2nd in the Pac, lose @Pauley and finish 2nd or lower in the Pac tourney. If only two of those happen, still think we'll be in the west.

We're also not taking into consideration what Houston and Texas are doing. They're both possible #1 seeds, and if the Pac gets messy, we could have one of them as the #1 in the West.
I think we are actually in a better position than UCLA. We have a better Quad 1 record and we have already beaten them. We only need to win 1 of 2 games vs. UCLA (at Pauley or in the PAC12 tourney final (assuming we get there)) to get seeded in the West.

Yes. That was a much more eloquent way to convey what I tried to in my last post.

Thanks, dmj.

Alieberman · Post by **Alieberman** » Fri Feb 10, 2023 1:09 pm

I agree. Whoever goes 2-1 over the other school will be in the West.

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Fri Feb 10, 2023 3:06 pm

Alieberman wrote: ↑Fri Feb 10, 2023 1:09 pm I agree. Whoever goes 2-1 over the other school will be in the West.

Will be more interesting if we don't play them 3 times. Strange things happen in the Pac tourney.

dmjcat · Post by **dmjcat** » Sat Feb 18, 2023 10:37 am

NCAA Early Bracket Preview

AZ #2 seed in the west

azgreg · Post by **azgreg** » Sat Feb 18, 2023 11:16 am

Alieberman · Post by **Alieberman** » Sat Feb 18, 2023 12:05 pm

This should prove to the doubters that a #1 seed is not out of the question. We are ranked #6 in the eyes of the committee

This is a great sign. If we go 1-1 with UCLA. (assuming we meet them in Pac Tourney). We are in great shape to stay in the West

pc in NM · Post by **pc in NM** » Mon Feb 27, 2023 1:18 pm

CBS Bracketology today

Arizona #3 seed in Midwest

UC-Irvine #14 seed

TCU #6 seed

Texas #2 seed

Houston #1 seed

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Mon Feb 27, 2023 2:35 pm

We need at least a split in L.A. and a couple Vegas wins to be a 2 seed.

pc in NM · Post by **pc in NM** » Tue Feb 28, 2023 11:35 am

pc in NM wrote: ↑Mon Feb 27, 2023 1:18 pm CBS Bracketology today

Arizona #3 seed in Midwest

UC-Irvine #14 seed

TCU #6 seed

Texas #2 seed

Houston #1 seed

ESPN/Lunardi Bracketology today

Arizona #3 seed in Midwest

UC-Irvine #14 seed

Northwestern #6 seed

Baylor #2 seed

Houston #1 seed

U.P. Zona Fan · Post by **U.P. Zona Fan** » Tue Feb 28, 2023 5:36 pm

Could really do without TCU as the second round game.

BBQ wildcat · Post by **BBQ wildcat** » Tue Feb 28, 2023 5:44 pm

Don't worry. If we get swept this weekend, we could be a 4 seed. I sure hope it doesn't happen, but it is hard to win on the road and we will be playing good teams. We really needed to hold serve on our court, and we didn't do it. Twice.

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Tue Feb 28, 2023 6:09 pm

BBQ wildcat wrote: ↑Tue Feb 28, 2023 5:44 pm Don't worry. If we get swept this weekend, we could be a 4 seed. I sure hope it doesn't happen, but it is hard to win on the road and we will be playing good teams. We really needed to hold serve on our court, and we didn't do it. Twice.

Even if we go 0-2 in L.A., a Pac tourney title probably gets us back on the 2 line, especially if it entails beating ucla again.

This is all to say: our seed is far from determined at the moment.

TheCat · Post by **TheCat** » Wed Mar 01, 2023 4:05 pm

BBQ wildcat wrote: ↑Tue Feb 28, 2023 5:44 pm Don't worry. If we get swept this weekend, we could be a 4 seed. I sure hope it doesn't happen, but it is hard to win on the road and we will be playing good teams. We really needed to hold serve on our court, and we didn't do it. Twice.

I think that is key. You have to win your home games and we did not take care of business in those games. Tough lesson to learn.

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Wed Mar 01, 2023 5:35 pm

TheCat wrote: ↑Wed Mar 01, 2023 4:05 pm
BBQ wildcat wrote: ↑Tue Feb 28, 2023 5:44 pm Don't worry. If we get swept this weekend, we could be a 4 seed. I sure hope it doesn't happen, but it is hard to win on the road and we will be playing good teams. We really needed to hold serve on our court, and we didn't do it. Twice.
I think that is key. You have to win your home games and we did not take care of business in those games. Tough lesson to learn.

We also won the harder home games and won the easier ones. This team's been hard to predict all season.

U.P. Zona Fan · Post by **U.P. Zona Fan** » Wed Mar 01, 2023 7:04 pm

It seems to me that we have a hard time when a team punches way above it's weight class, Creighton played well against us, UCLA played us tough, but when we got punched by a team and were not expecting it, that's when we had troubles.

pc in NM · Post by **pc in NM** » Sun Mar 05, 2023 10:20 am

Lunardi this morning:

KU's loss results in their being promoted to the #1 overall seed - Midwest, which means Sweet 16 & Great Eight in Kansas City

U of A's loss results in promotion to a#2 seed - Midwest.

USC listed as a #10 seed - Midwest, which would mean a second round game in Sacramento vs U of A!

I thought conference foes would always not be matched before Sweet 16!?!?

BTW, he has both AssU and University of Zero as missing the Big Dance.

And, as expected, UCLA #1 seed in West.

dmjcat · Post by **dmjcat** » Sun Mar 05, 2023 11:07 am

pc in NM wrote: ↑Sun Mar 05, 2023 10:20 am Lunardi this morning:

KU's loss results in their being promoted to the #1 overall seed - Midwest, which means Sweet 16 & Great Eight in Kansas City

U of A's loss results in promotion to a#2 seed - Midwest.

USC listed as a #10 seed - Midwest, which would mean a second round game in Sacramento vs U of A!

I thought conference foes would always not be matched before Sweet 16!?!?

BTW, he has both AssU and University of Zero as missing the Big Dance.

And, as expected, UCLA #1 seed in West.

If we played SC we would be potentially playing them 3 times in 3 weeks.

Frankly I think Lunardi is clueless. I can't believe people put so much stock in his predictions. At Bracketmatrix they rank all of the bracketologists over a 5 year period. Lunardi is 88th.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/rankings.html

At this point I think our ceiling is a 2 seed and the basement is a 3 seed (assuming we don't lose to another nobody in the 1st round of the P12 tourney). Looking at the top 10 bracketolgists on Bracketmatrix that are updated as of this morning its about 80% UA as a 2 seed and 20% UA as a 3 seed. Jerry Palm has dropped us to a 3.

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Sun Mar 05, 2023 11:57 am

Think we need at least the Pac tourney final to be a 2. If we win the Pac tourney, we’ll be 2 in the west.

TheCat · Post by **TheCat** » Sun Mar 05, 2023 12:33 pm

PAC can't have a 1 and 2 seed in the same bracket assuming UCLA is a one in the West. Lots of movement left. Lunardi has Kansas as the number 1 overall to placate the one eyed trouser trout Vitale. They have a huge number of quad one wins but that is because of the extreme hype of their conference. Are you telling me Oregon can't beat their number 8 team? Just don't believe that if Oregon is just decent.

I think this points out the potential flaw in quad 1 wins. ESPN and Fox both have an incentive to hype the teams that they cover. It is their business model to draw eyeballs and high ranked teams with hype will do that. Kansas lost three straight and some of their losses are double digit ones. Why isn't Marquette talked about as a one seed. They just accomplished something that has never been done? We will see but I think two or three years ago the most hyped conference was considered a huge disappointment.

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Sun Mar 05, 2023 1:29 pm

Still think ucla has to win the Pac tourney to be the 1 in the West. Lunardi is historically TERRIBLE at predicting the brackets.

azgreg · Post by **azgreg** » Sun Mar 05, 2023 2:18 pm

Beachcat97 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 05, 2023 1:29 pm Lunardi is historically TERRIBLE at predicting the brackets.

At Bracketmatrix he ranks 88th out of 148 over the last 5 years.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/rankings.html

KaibabKat · Post by **KaibabKat** » Sun Mar 05, 2023 2:46 pm

You mean Joey does't even make the last four out?

TheCat · Post by **TheCat** » Sun Mar 05, 2023 3:15 pm

So Lunardi has us in the MW with (surprise surprise) Kansas (1), Arizona (2), Gonzaga (3) and Xavier(4). Me thinks something stinks here.

dmjcat · Post by **dmjcat** » Sun Mar 05, 2023 4:19 pm

Beachcat97 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 05, 2023 11:57 am Think we need at least the Pac tourney final to be a 2. If we win the Pac tourney, we’ll be 2 in the west.

I think we crapped the bed last night with respect to being seeded in the west.

Even if we sweep in Vegas I think the committee will keep UCLA in the west over us.

TheCat · Post by **TheCat** » Sun Mar 05, 2023 5:31 pm

I'm not talking being in the West I'm talking about potentially playing the Zags and Xavier. If I had my choice of brackets the way they are currently laid out I want the South.

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Sun Mar 05, 2023 7:15 pm

dmjcat wrote: ↑Sun Mar 05, 2023 4:19 pm
Beachcat97 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 05, 2023 11:57 am Think we need at least the Pac tourney final to be a 2. If we win the Pac tourney, we’ll be 2 in the west.
I think we crapped the bed last night with respect to being seeded in the west.

Even if we sweep in Vegas I think the committee will keep UCLA in the west over us.

Disagree. If we play and beat ucla in the Pac tournament, we’ll be 2 in the west, and they’ll be a lower 1 seed (ie: not in the west). The committee can reward ucla with a 1 but also recognize they didn’t close the deal in Vegas. Think ucla has to win the Pac tourney to guarantee a spot in the west.

Keep in mind that UCLA’s tourney resume isn’t as good as most of the other teams vying for a 1 seed.

dmjcat · Post by **dmjcat** » Sun Mar 05, 2023 9:17 pm

Beachcat97 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 05, 2023 7:15 pm
dmjcat wrote: ↑Sun Mar 05, 2023 4:19 pm
Beachcat97 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 05, 2023 11:57 am Think we need at least the Pac tourney final to be a 2. If we win the Pac tourney, we’ll be 2 in the west.
I think we crapped the bed last night with respect to being seeded in the west.

Even if we sweep in Vegas I think the committee will keep UCLA in the west over us.
Disagree. If we play and beat ucla in the Pac tournament, we’ll be 2 in the west, and they’ll be a lower 1 seed (ie: not in the west). The committee can reward ucla with a 1 but also recognize they didn’t close the deal in Vegas. Think ucla has to win the Pac tourney to guarantee a spot in the west.

Keep in mind that UCLA’s tourney resume isn’t as good as most of the other teams vying for a 1 seed.

If UCLA is a 1 and the UA is a 2 there is NO way the committee rewards a 2 seed over a 1 seed for regional preference.

CardiacCats97 · Post by **CardiacCats97** » Sun Mar 05, 2023 9:32 pm

dmjcat wrote: ↑Sun Mar 05, 2023 9:17 pm
Beachcat97 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 05, 2023 7:15 pm
dmjcat wrote: ↑Sun Mar 05, 2023 4:19 pm
Beachcat97 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 05, 2023 11:57 am Think we need at least the Pac tourney final to be a 2. If we win the Pac tourney, we’ll be 2 in the west.
I think we crapped the bed last night with respect to being seeded in the west.

Even if we sweep in Vegas I think the committee will keep UCLA in the west over us.
Disagree. If we play and beat ucla in the Pac tournament, we’ll be 2 in the west, and they’ll be a lower 1 seed (ie: not in the west). The committee can reward ucla with a 1 but also recognize they didn’t close the deal in Vegas. Think ucla has to win the Pac tourney to guarantee a spot in the west.

Keep in mind that UCLA’s tourney resume isn’t as good as most of the other teams vying for a 1 seed.
If UCLA is a 1 and the UA is a 2 there is NO way the committee rewards a 2 seed over a 1 seed for regional preference.

Especially if there isn’t another team that is at least equally regionally relevant and worthy. They aren’t going to put Purdue in the West and UCLA in the South just to reward Arizona with the West 2 seed.

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Sun Mar 05, 2023 9:32 pm

dmjcat wrote: ↑Sun Mar 05, 2023 9:17 pm
Beachcat97 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 05, 2023 7:15 pm
dmjcat wrote: ↑Sun Mar 05, 2023 4:19 pm
Beachcat97 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 05, 2023 11:57 am Think we need at least the Pac tourney final to be a 2. If we win the Pac tourney, we’ll be 2 in the west.
I think we crapped the bed last night with respect to being seeded in the west.

Even if we sweep in Vegas I think the committee will keep UCLA in the west over us.
Disagree. If we play and beat ucla in the Pac tournament, we’ll be 2 in the west, and they’ll be a lower 1 seed (ie: not in the west). The committee can reward ucla with a 1 but also recognize they didn’t close the deal in Vegas. Think ucla has to win the Pac tourney to guarantee a spot in the west.

Keep in mind that UCLA’s tourney resume isn’t as good as most of the other teams vying for a 1 seed.
If UCLA is a 1 and the UA is a 2 there is NO way the committee rewards a 2 seed over a 1 seed for regional preference.

Okay. I'd always thought a 1 seed was considered inherently superior -- in the committee's eyes -- to a 2 seed, but you're saying that's not the case. With ucla, a 2 seed in the west would be a "better" seed than a 1 seed outside the west.

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