Cal Bears Sports

[CatsbyAZ]

Still finding it remarkable how the Bay Area universities, both as nationally prominent as Stanford and Cal, are left in the wind trying to find a new conference home while, let’s face it, state schools like Oregon, Arizona, and Arizona State are the ones getting new life in other conferences.

But especially for Cal, this is something I’ve been wondering for 3 or 4 years now – even before last week’s Pac 12’s extinction event – does Cal’s football program have much of a future?

Cal’s Athletic Department faces more outstanding debt than any other department nationally, totaling over $400M. Upwards of half of this total is a result of renovations to the football stadium.

Moving to the ACC at this point reeks of desperation, partly to pay their bills, but it doesn’t sound like the ACC wants Cal or Stanford that much. And a move to the ACC (or AAC) would erode the non-revenue sports whose athletes could better balance the Student-Athlete life by leaving for a nearby MTW school.

And were Cal to join the Mountain West, the TV payouts would only top $5M annually, far below the amount needed to maintain their 30 varsity sports and payoff the football stadium debts.

On top of all that, and what has had me wondering for a few years whether Cal’s two revenue sports would be better off joining a lighter lineup in the Mountain West is how both Football and Basketball are terminally stagnate. Basketball hasn’t made the tournament since 2016. Football has mustered only 3 winning seasons in the decade since Jeff Tedford’s heralded tenure – 82-57.

And on my travels through the Bay Area for work, local fan support since the Tedford years has cratered. There’s almost no interest to be rallied in the limited beat coverage. Only Duke and Kansas fill their football stadium at a lower percentage. Both basketball and football are listless products.

Even if the Pac 12 had stayed together, it was looking like Cal's sports program were better off either scaling back the smaller sports or siphoning a few off to smaller conferences. And how much longer could the Basketball and Football programs look like better competitive match ups in the Mountain West, especially now without a TV deal?

[KillerKlown]

Cal should be what Baylor is right now. They need to try their hardest to get in the ACC or bring in teams from MTW and American to the PAC. Joining a group conference just isn't going to cut it.

Edit: If (big if) they do join the ACC they might have to tuck non revenue sports in the MTW including basketball.

[CatsbyAZ]

To pull comments from the Realignment thread on Cal (and Stanford) finalizing their move to the ACC, I completely agree with the following two quotes:

I hope the ACC gets this done. We don't need to be stuck with these two again.

&

I'm just happy Stanford and Cal are off the board. I had some concern that the Big XII might change (lose?) its mind and add them at the last minute.

The following comment, which I could not have worded better, is where I wanted to ask…

Burning relationships with the three biggest brands in the ACC just to add 2 schools with below average fan attendance and a red headed step child in SMU that's less popular then some high school teams in their own city. This should be interesting to watch unravel. ACC is done for.

…who exactly is the joke on? ACC? Cal/Stanford? Both?

Yes Cal backing into what feels like an arranged marriage is enough to keep most of their 30 sports going – Cal will start off earning $20M their first years in the ACC, which is short of their over $30M earned annually from the Pac 12.

But what in the world was the ACC thinking?!?! Their Grant Of Rights providing long term membership stability should’ve kept the ACC from rushing any risks like adding 3 far away fan bases that have waned to the point of afterthoughts in their own hometowns.

As for Cal, there’s a chance their lawsuit Vs UCLA will net Cal the remaining $10M shortfall to pay back financial damages created by UCLA deserting the Pac 12. But without the full $30M it’s likely difficult cutbacks to their 30 sports will be made.

In the meantime, Cal is planning rolling over 24 of their 30 sports that compete in the ACC, such as Football, Basketball, Baseball, Golf, Gymnastics, Rowing, Volleyball, and Track among others.

How will this all play out?

From a Cal Blog:“19 of the 30 sports will see no scheduling changes and minimal scheduling impacts, since many of these sports have regional alliances they will likely remain in (rugby, men’s crew, water polo, men’s gymnastics), while others already travel nationally like golf, tennis, lacrosse and field hockey. There will be assessments to minimize overall travel on the remaining 11.”

And according to ACC Commissioner Jim Phillips: “In football, east coast teams will travel to the west coast to face Cal and Stanford every other year, according to Phillips. Meanwhile, Cal and Stanford will travel to the east coast three to four times per season.”

“As for men’s and women’s basketball, current ACC teams will take two trips every four years and will play Cal and Stanford on those trips. Cal and Stanford will come to the east coast three-to-four times per year. Those teams will play two games each time they travel east.”

Outside of Football and Basketball, those other 9 sports will face pressure to self-sustain through more donor support in the face of traveling longer distances. All will likely facing a tougher reality of higher roster turnover regretting more travel and also convincing bread-and-butter recruits (including for Football and Basketball) to play half their conference schedules on the East Coast when they could more comfortably play for Fresno State or Nevada.

[CatsbyAZ]

Before a wild game kicked off between USC and California last Saturday, its kickoff was delayed by a group of undergrads squatting on Cal’s midfield logo until field security handcuffed demonstrators and escorted them out of the stadium.

Amidst delaying the kickoff by 15 minutes, most onlookers assumed their cause was for Palestine. But it turns out their on-field protesting was part of their months-long campaign to reinstate a suspended Colonial Studies professor. Their shirts read “Justice 4 Ivonne,” as in Ivonne del Valle, found likely, by a “preponderance of the evidence,” of stalking a fellow Berkeley professor according to several University investigations.

From local news sources: “…records obtained by KQED paint a troubling picture of what led to del Valle’s suspension. Over three investigations, which looked into behavior that began in 2018 and continued through 2022, the university found del Valle had repeatedly harassed, stalked and retaliated against Joshua Clover, an English and Comparative Literature professor at UC Davis, and then violated orders not to contact him…Student supporters contend del Valle was acting out of desperation, believing that she is actually the victim of harassment and online stalking.”

“…del Valle acknowledged some of the behavior described in the investigative reports, including keying Clover’s car, vandalizing the area outside his apartment door, contacting his friends, posting an image of his partner online and leaving messages outside the home of his mother. Those messages included one that said “I raised a psychopath,” according to the university’s investigative reports.”

For her defense, she believes the professor she stalked made matters worse for her by hacking and manipulating her social media accounts. But investigations have not been able to determine this. Her student supporters are now planning a hunger strike.

“My life is completely destroyed,” said del Valle. “I don't want UC Berkeley to think that they can do this to a minority woman in order to protect a white, senior professor. It's not acceptable.”

These events read like a particular subplot from a particular Jonathan Franzen Novel. Leave it to Berkeley students to radicalize the fallout to the point of disrupting the football game.

Get ready ACC:

[Merkin]

Should probably go on the political board.

Leave it to Berkeley students to radicalize the fallout to the point of disrupting the football game.

Don't think a dozen protestors represents the Berkeley student body.

Same with the "dozens" of UCLA students at the pro-Palestine rally.

Both Berkeley and UCLA have a total enrollment of 45,000 students or so.

Not necessarily you, but the conservative meme of colleges and universities indoctrinating students is a little tiring.

I worked at a Cal State university for 30 years, You know how often I heard anything political from the administration?

Never.

[Chicat]

[CatsbyAZ]

Article from SI—
"The financial situation of Cal athletics is not encouraging as the Golden Bears begin membership in the Atlantic Coast Conference next fall...the athletic departments of UCLA and Cal combined to have a deficit of more than $80 million in fiscal year 2023 when contribution from the universities’ central campus was excluded."

To quote Jon Wilner from San Jose Mercury-News: "Without a course change, the grim financial trajectories in Westwood and Berkeley could undermine success on the field (and court) in their new leagues against peers with stronger fiscal foundations."

"Wilner concluded the financial situation at Cal is worse than that of UCLA. According to Wilner’s report, Cal reported $126.1 million in revenue for fiscal year 2023 and $134.9 million in expenses for an $8.8 million deficit."

"Wilner suggests that the financial picture for the 2023-24 fiscal year might be worse because of Cal’s take from Pac-12 revenue could be less than last year. He noted that the Bears’ cost of existence in the ACC is likely to be millions of dollars higher that it is in the Pac-12 because of increased travel costs and other issues. Also, Cal and Stanford reportedly will receive only 30 percent shares of the ACC’s media rights revenue for the next seven years, which would be about $7.5 million instead of the $25 million the other ACC schools would get."

I'm going to get ahead of myself and predict two things: 1) At some point Cal will be the first P5 football program to fold completely; this thanks to 2) the football program eventually not only NOT generating the usual funds football does for Athletic Departments but fan interest in Cal Bears sports has absolutely cratered over the past 10 - 15 years, more than any other P5 college fanbase I can think of. The Bay Area's homegrown fan support isn't there for Cal anymore; they aren't buying football tickets or tuning into the games that would help fund the Cal Bears through their already rocky scenario noted by the article.

[Merkin]

Cal cannot drop football due to the worst in the history of the known world stadium deal. The Cal president was adamant about getting rid of Larry Scott due to his terrible leadership in getting funding.

https://deadspin.com/cal-is-fucked-beca ... 1795896858

The Bears now owe at least $18 million per year in interest-only payments on the stadium debt, and that number will balloon to at least $26 million per year in 2032 when Berkeley starts paying off the principal stadium cost. Payments will increase until they peak at $37 million per year in 2039, then subside again in 2051 before Berkeley will owe $81 million in 2053. After that, the school is on the hook for $75 million more and will have six decades to pay it off. The stadium might not get paid off until 2113


Stanford did it right. They knew that Bay Area college football is dying.

[CalStateTempe]

What about calimony? How much do they get through that?

[Merkin]

What about calimony? How much do they get through that?

[CatsbyAZ]

Cal cannot drop football due to the worst in the history of the known world stadium deal. The Cal president was adamant about getting rid of Larry Scott due to his terrible leadership in getting funding.

Thinking how two years ago (January 2022) Cal re-upped Justin Wilcox through 2027. At the time Wilcox finished his 5th season as HC with a middling 26-28 record. Why might you ask, does a 26-28 warrant an extension? Perhaps Cal sought to match Wilcox’s unusual show of loyalty once it was confirmed he turned down an offer from the Oregon Ducks?

I’ve said this before, but to me, in the win at all costs world of college football, Cal is the first P5 program I’ve seeing letting off the gas of a football program that anybody can see isn’t the competitive focus for a University whose ambition is political action and expanding an international academic presence.

A Cal blogger states Cal’s consent to football mediocrity the following way: “To start with, some of the institutional support Wilcox is starting to receive is the kind of thing that would be considered standard operating procedures for most P5 schools. But Cal’s recent history, budgeting reality, and increasingly academic focus means that this kind of support must be earned . . . but not necessarily via wins and losses. No, Justin Wilcox appears to tick every single box a Cal coach can for administrators and big money donors tick outside of that most important box [(winning)]. He’s largely drama free and doesn’t spend time complaining about the kind of Berkeley-specific logistical hurdles that certain other Cal coaches have complained about. He’s connected to the glory days of Jeff Tedford. He’s displayed a level of loyalty to Cal that, quite frankly, Cal hasn’t earned.”

And looking at it from the side of Wilcox, at what point is it worth avoiding the demands of running Oregon if you make $3.4M to deliver .500 seasons without facing discontent from Bay Area beat writers more focused on the Niners or a Cal fan base who increasingly won’t fill half of Strawberry Canyon??

To keep in mind Cal’s obstacles of budgeting, declining fan interest, aging facilities with no planned upgrades, declining local recruiting pipelines, and their difficulty of finding coaches, Cal committing to their match in Wilcox is about the most I’ve seen a football program coming to honest terms with an increasing unwillingness to compete in college football.

[CatsbyAZ]

What about calimony? How much do they get through that?

Sounds like the UC Board of Regents is finalizing official Calimony rates:

“UCLA will now have to pay Cal $10 million per year through 2029-2030, after a UC Board of Regents recommendation that was approved late Thursday evening.”

“A report from the president of the UC system claims that the difference in income between UCLA's media distribution from the Big Ten is roughly $50 million per year compared to Cal's distribution from its new ACC home. Given that disparity, it's not surprising that the regents chose to recommend UCLA pay the max amount to Cal each year. Still though, it must be tough for the UCLA athletic department to accept that it will be paying Cal $50-60 million over the next few years, just because Cal won't take in as much revenue from its new conference.”

“For UCLA though, the $10 million per year could actually get worse. The Regents recommended that if there's an adjustment to revenues for either school that results in a 10 percent increase or decrease from the current projections, they will reevaluate to see if UCLA should give even more money. Ouch.”

[CalStateTempe]

Good.

[CatsbyAZ]

A Cal blogger states Cal’s consent to football mediocrity the following way: “To start with, some of the institutional support Wilcox is starting to receive is the kind of thing that would be considered standard operating procedures for most P5 schools. But Cal’s recent history, budgeting reality, and increasingly academic focus means that this kind of support must be earned . . . but not necessarily via wins and losses. No, Justin Wilcox appears to tick every single box a Cal coach can for administrators and big money donors tick outside of that most important box [(winning)]. He’s largely drama free and doesn’t spend time complaining about the kind of Berkeley-specific logistical hurdles that certain other Cal coaches have complained about. He’s connected to the glory days of Jeff Tedford. He’s displayed a level of loyalty to Cal that, quite frankly, Cal hasn’t earned.”

To pull more of the same from the same Cal blog, a post dating back to mid-October bemoans how Cal Football is “trapped in college football purgatory.”

There’s only so many ways to lament mediocrity; Cal’s dwindling fanbase dares to give it a run:

“In college football, there are some pretty simple rules. The most time-honored? When your program is headed south, and there is no sign of a turnaround on the horizon, it is time to reboot from the top and start fresh. The California Golden Bears are one of the few college football teams refusing to bow to these norms."

"In most normal situations, a college program would reboot and find someone new. Instead, Cal's athletic leadership prioritized loyalty and academics and Big Game wins and then the Pac-12 collapsed and we got an ACC piecemeal deal. Two large Wilcox extensions later, here we are."

Lots of talk in the post and continuing in the comments section about the Cal Administration’s “institutional indifference” to maintaining competitive programs as well as a lack of big dollar donors willing to step in with their wallets: “Additionally, major Cal donors are very unwilling to really make any major commitments to a new direction as long as athletic director Jim Knowlton is the one who will have to make the call.”

Which adds to the Athletic Department’s precarious financial reality which doesn’t spare them the cash to move on from Justin Wilcox (36–43), fund much of an NIL, or bask in TV money: “With the new, deeply disadvantageous ACC deal, Cal is going to already be short on the TV revenue needed to maintain a fully functional athletic department…So here we are Cal fans, stuck in football purgatory. This is why we stand still. We know the path we’re on is not ideal, but there is almost no wiggle room from a financial and leadership standpoint for major systemic change.”

[Merkin]

I really have no idea what Cal can do. Just running huge deficits every year which need to be made up on moneys from the academic side. Similar to UA, I know...

https://www.si.com/college/cal/wilnerre ... 0on%20Sept.

— In FY2022 [fiscal year 2022] the Bears generated $120.5 million in revenue against $116.8 in expenses and $29.1 million in campus support. Total shortfall without support: $25.4 million

— In FY2023, they [Cal] booked $129.5 million in revenue against $138.3 million in expenses with $33.7 million in support. Total shortfall without support: $42.5 million.


I would be tempted to drop football, as many schools have done over the years, such as the UCs, CSUs and UNCs.
But the stadium debt is just crushing.

As of May 17, 2024, the University of California-Berkeley's athletic department had a debt of $439 million, which is 348% of its annual revenue. The athletic department's financial situation may be worse in the 2023-24 fiscal year because Cal's share of Pac-12 revenue could be less than the previous year. In 2023, Cal reported $126.1 million in revenue and $134.9 million in expenses, resulting in an $8.8 million deficit. This was a 6.6% increase in revenue and a 17.8% increase in expenses from the previous year. The central campus contributed $36.7 million to the athletic department to help reduce the deficit


But they are pretty much getting a full share from the ACC.

https://calbears.com/news/2023/9/1/athl ... stitutions.

UC Berkeley will be joining the ACC as a full member in August 2024. The university will receive a full share of all revenues, including media revenue, while contributing back a portion of its media revenue to support and strengthen the conference and its current member institutions. UC Berkeley's membership contribution will taper off until the 10th year, at which point it will begin retaining 100% of its media revenue share. The fact that annual revenue will increase over time was an important factor in the agreement.


Which is pretty substantial.

https://www.espn.com/college-sports/sto ... ig-ten-sec

The ACC generated a record $706.6 million in gross revenue in 2022-23, distributing an average of $44.8 million to its 14 football-playing members.

[CatsbyAZ]

Cal’s Fan Blog wishes Farewell to Arizona as Cal officially reports to the ACC:

Sounds like Cal fans won’t miss us too much:
“It was agony playing Arizona. Sure, there was basketball. While no football fanbase really rankled emotions on trips to Cal, Arizona basketball fans were especially obnoxious. Whenever they showed up in Berkeley, they got loud, they made noise, and they kept it going the whole game with the same damned chant. But basketball wasn’t the agony. Cal is generally a major underdog to Arizona in hoops. Any win that the Bears earn here comes as a pleasant surprise.”

“No, the real agony came in football, because the losses were so unpredictable. The Bears lost six heartbreakers of various sorts to Wildcats teams of varying degrees (Pac-12 title contenders to one win squads) since 2010. They involved missed field goals, Hail Marys, fumbled pick-sixes, COVID protocols. If you want to understand the misery of Cal fandom, find a modern Arizona game and you’d understand.”

Proud to say I was at 3 of those 6 games, and of the over 100 live sporting events I’ve attended, all 3 would make my Top 10 most memorable:

2010 10-9 home win watching as a student in the ZonaZoo. Down 9-3, and with 2:37 left in the 4th, Nick Foles completes a 51 yd pass to Juron Criner to the Cal 12. Then on 3&1 at the 3, Criner catches the game winner with 1:11 left. A stifling, frustrating game that ended on a thrill.

2014 49-45 Hail Mary win watching from the ZonaZoo where I’d snuck in with undergrad friends. Arizona trailed the entire game, falling behind as much as 31-13 in the 3rd. After a FG to start the 4th, an interception and return by Bondurant inside the Cal 20 setup a quick TD to put Arizona with one possession, 31-23. From there it was back and forth until a dream finish.

2021 10-3 Arizona’s lone win in Fisch’s first year. If 2014 was the most exciting game I’d ever attended, this was the strangest. Stadium was nearly empty and we were able to move up to seats right behind Cal’s bench. A rather depopulated bench because if I remember correctly, Cal only dressed about 50 players due to Covid protocols.

From a Cal fan in the blog post’s comments section: “The ridiculous voodoo magic their football team had over us in Tucson was truly unbelievable. All of the weirdest things happened to Cal when we had to play down there.”

[TheCatInTheHat]

Yeah, that 2014 game was really something. When it was 31-13, I got fed up and left; guess I'm a bad fan. Our car was parked near Dirtbag's, so we went in there to drown our sorrows and watch the game. The only seats were at the bar, so we squeezed in there, and as luck would have it, there was a Cal fan directly to my right. He was understandably loud and exuberant, and he'd been carrying on a back-and-forth with the people to our left. And we came back in that crazy fourth quarter. But, even only needing 3 to win, with only 4 seconds left near mid-field, there was no time to get in range and set up a FG. So it was hopeless. The Cal guy had been pretty nervous during our comeback, but now he was back at full roar, ready to really celebrate. Then, the "Hill Mary" from Anu Solomon to Austin Hill. I jumped up and down and shook the poor guy, and he looked like he'd just been sentenced to the electric chair.

[scumdevils86]

Don't forget the 2006 pick six that put us ahead to win against #8 Cal at home after being down 17-3.

[Merkin]

How about this one which was very instrumental in the NCAA changing OT rules.

[AZCatGirl]

Hill Mary was probably the best Arizona moment to ever air on the Pac 12 Network.

Also, I love how that Cal blog bitched we were too loud at their basketball games. So glad the Big 12 actually has people show up instead of us playing in morgues.

[wyo-cat]

Hill Mary was probably the best Arizona moment to ever air on the Pac 12 Network.

Also, I love how that Cal blog bitched we were too loud at their basketball games. So glad the Big 12 actually has people show up instead of us playing in morgues.

This was the first game I ever sat in the NEZ.

I was right behind the Hill Mary.

It was crazy, Hill turned towards the sideline and ball, and the Cal guy turned towards the field side of the play.

I said to my buddy, “he’s open!!” when the ball was in the air.

I gotta say, it’s the best play I had ever seen.

[CatsbyAZ]

2010 10-9 home win watching as a student in the ZonaZoo. Down 9-3, and with 2:37 left in the 4th, Nick Foles completes a 51 yd pass to Juron Criner to the Cal 12. Then on 3&1 at the 3, Criner catches the game winner with 1:11 left. A stifling, frustrating game that ended on a thrill.

Only video recap I could find of this game. A defensive battle all the way until Foles' late deep pass to Criner made all the difference. Still one of my favorite plays witnessed in Arizona Stadium. Had a blast afterwards.

[CatsbyAZ]

After big win on the road Vs Auburn, Cal is off to a 3-0 start with an unexpectedly awful Florida State team on deck this Saturday.

Meanwhile, Cal's trolling game is really picking up: