Official Bracketology Thread

[U.P. Zona Fan]

Yes it is baby!

Could use some happy right about then.

[Irish27]

Cats #1 seed in the West.
https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story ... redictions

[Beachcat97]

Cats #1 seed in the West.
https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story ... redictions

We'll either be the 1 or 2 in the West, unless we really stink it up over the next month.

[arizonawildcats]

[KillerKlown]

Purdue racking up those sweet, sweet Q1, Q2 victories over B1G first week March exits.

[Irish27]

[U.P. Zona Fan]

Would love Kansas as our 2 seed.

[TheCat]

Duke,Alabama and Wisconsin in the same bracket? That is weird.

[Alieberman]

As of right now Purdue, UConn and Houston are in the top tier by themselves.

Tier 2:

Arizona
North Carolina
Tennessee
Marquette
Kansas

Those are your top 2 seeds and only a couple other teams seem like they even have a shot of breaking into that 2nd tier (Alabama, Baylor, Iowa St, Duke, Auburn)

[Beachcat97]

As of right now Purdue, UConn and Houston are in the top tier by themselves.

Tier 2:

Arizona
North Carolina
Tennessee
Marquette
Kansas

Those are your top 2 seeds and only a couple other teams seem like they even have a shot of breaking into that 2nd tier (Alabama, Baylor, Iowa St, Duke, Auburn)

Houston’s best win so far is BYU. They’ve gotten rich this season by avoiding bad losses. Kansas destroyed them.

[Alieberman]

I’ve watched Houston play this year… they are the real deal. (Also they are 7-3 in quad 1... so it's not just about beating BYU!)

I also said as of right now those 3 teams are clearly in a class by themselves… but there is still time for that to change

[Alieberman]

FYI- Feb 17th- in 1 week- The selection committee puts out their first top 16 teams... so we will know exactly where we stand

[Beachcat97]

I’ve watched Houston play this year… they are the real deal. (Also they are 7-3 in quad 1... so it's not just about beating BYU!)

I also said as of right now those 3 teams are clearly in a class by themselves… but there is still time for that to change

We need to know how predictive Q1 record has been for teams reaching the FF and/or E8. On the surface, this looks like an excellent metric, but I’m unsure.

And KU showed the rest of the country how to beat Houston.

[U.P. Zona Fan]

Yeah, the same way you beat anyone this year, shoot 75% at home. It's how we've lost too.

[Beachcat97]

Yeah, the same way you beat anyone this year, shoot 75% at home. It's how we've lost too.

Houston is not an elite offensive team. They slow you down, impose their style of play for most of the game, and usually shoot well enough to win. But KU is indeed an elite offensive team, and on their best night, not even a defense like Houston can do very much.

I would like our chances against Houston this year because, like them, we are a very good defensive team. Maybe not as good as them, but we're no slouch on defense. We are much better than them on offense, so their defense would have to be impeccable and we'd have to be ice cold for long stretches, in order for them to win.

[g32knights]

FYI- Feb 17th- in 1 week- The selection committee puts out their first top 16 teams... so we will know exactly where we stand

On the defensive end, sure, but watching their offense is like pouring hot sauce in your eyes.

[Alieberman]

Interesting graph showing the top teams Quad 1 wins opponents

[dmjcat]

AZ projected as the #1 seed in the West on NCAA March Madness Bracket Reveal

West seeding:

#1 Arizona
#2 Kansas
#3 Duke
#4 Auburn

[Alieberman]

And committee days we are firmly the #4 team right now… not a debate between us and Marquette/ Tennessee /Carolina / Kansas

[pc in NM]

And committee days we are firmly the #4 team right now… not a debate between us and Marquette/ Tennessee /Carolina / Kansas

A dose of reality - last year, the four #1 seeds were all out before the Great Eight.

[dmjcat]

And committee days we are firmly the #4 team right now… not a debate between us and Marquette/ Tennessee /Carolina / Kansas

Seth Davis bad-mouthed the UA predicting we won't be a #1 seed at tourney time due to not playing any more Quad 1 teams.

[PHXCATS]

And committee days we are firmly the #4 team right now… not a debate between us and Marquette/ Tennessee /Carolina / Kansas

A dose of reality - last year, the four #1 seeds were all out before the Great Eight.

Good thing that means nothing this year

[Chicat]

And committee days we are firmly the #4 team right now… not a debate between us and Marquette/ Tennessee /Carolina / Kansas

A dose of reality - last year, the four #1 seeds were all out before the Great Eight.

If you said EVERY year, you’d have a point.

[pc in NM]

And committee days we are firmly the #4 team right now… not a debate between us and Marquette/ Tennessee /Carolina / Kansas

A dose of reality - last year, the four #1 seeds were all out before the Great Eight.

Good thing that means nothing this year

It "means" be cautiously optimistic, at most...

Consider this: https://theathletic.com/5275725/2024/02 ... ontenders/

(I left out most of the detailed discussion - take the link for the whole story)

College basketball power rankings: UConn and Purdue lead our tiers of contenders

We say this with about as little confidence as possible, and it almost feels like we ought to whisper it, but here goes: Maybe a pecking order is finally beginning to take shape within this off-the-rails college basketball season?

At the very least, two teams have risen above the rest. Then there’s a sizable selection of squads that look great on a given night and god-awful the next. Some are just solidly built, so their floor is high but their ceiling is low. Others (ahem, Kentucky) feature tantalizing talent but an infuriating lack of focus. We see sleepers and Cinderellas just waiting for their moment.

Tiers, in other words. It’s that time for the Power Rankings, so we’ll scrap our usual format – slotting 16 teams in order, with the last spot reserved for a plucky mid-major – and opine a little more broadly about the top teams this week, lumping them together in groups that fit these neat little boxes we’ve created.

Tier 1: The Favorites

• Connecticut (23-2)

• Purdue (22-2)

We agree Connecticut and Purdue belong here in a league of their own, but we differ on which one of them is the better team. They both own a top-three offense with a top-20 defense. The Huskies are 8-1 in Quad 1 games, the Boilermakers 8-2.

Tier 2: The Contenders

• Houston (21-3)

• Kansas (19-6)

• North Carolina (19-6)

• Tennessee (18-6)

“bUt aLl tHeSe tEaMs jUsT lOsT!” Correct. They did — but they’re also all still capable of cutting down the nets come April.

Tier 3: Fun But Flawed

• Arizona (19-5)

• Kentucky (17-7)

• Marquette (19-5)

The teams in this tier are not all the same. We buy Arizona and Marquette way more at the moment than we do Kentucky.

Our reservations about Arizona and Marquette are more of the “yeah, but” variety.

Arizona has won five straight, including consecutive road wins at Utah and Colorado, to take control of the Pac-12. Tommy Lloyd’s team has a top-five offense and a top-15 defense and some nice nonconference wins: at Duke, Michigan State (neutral), Wisconsin and Alabama. But take a peek at the Wildcats’ 3-point percentage defense. It ranks 249th. Eight opponents have made 10-plus 3s against Arizona, and three of its losses came when the other side made 42 percent or better from deep: Purdue hit 10 of 24, Oregon State 12 of 20, Stanford 16 of 25. The Utes nearly followed that formula to victory, hitting 11 of 29 in a triple-overtime loss to the Wildcats. There’s been some recent improvement, but back in January, Lloyd bemoaned the fact that “our guards have been getting their a—- kicked in these games defensively.” For Caleb Love, Kylan Boswell, Pelle Larsson and company, the mission for March is simple: guard the perimeter or perish.

Tier 4: Solid, not spectacular

• Alabama (17-7)

• Auburn (20-5)

• Duke (19-5)

• Illinois (18-6)

• Iowa State (19-5)

[pc in NM]

And committee days we are firmly the #4 team right now… not a debate between us and Marquette/ Tennessee /Carolina / Kansas

A dose of reality - last year, the four #1 seeds were all out before the Great Eight.

If you said EVERY year, you’d have a point.

That fact from last year was highly unusual.

Also from the Athletic: (in case you did cancel)

https://theathletic.com/5270083/2024/02 ... -recruits/

Ken Pomeroy — the creator of advanced statistics site KenPom.com — analyzes the college basketball landscape for a living. And his takeaway, watching this season so far?

“It’s probably, compared to the last 25 years, maybe a little more wide open than average,” Pomeroy says. “Last year seemed like it was the pinnacle of parity, and I think we’re not quite as wide open as we were last year.”

It would be hard to top last season’s parity … but the fact that it’s anywhere close is still saying something. Remember: A record 54 teams cycled through the AP Top 25 last season, foreshadowing one of the most unpredictable NCAA Tournaments we’ve ever seen. For the second time in history, a No. 1 seed — in this case, Purdue, led by 7-foot-4 National Player of the Year Zach Edey — lost to a No. 16 seed (Fairleigh Dickinson). All four No. 1 seeds were eliminated before the Final Four for only the third time ever … and none even made the Elite Eight, a first. Three programs — Miami, San Diego State, and Florida Atlantic — instead made their first Final Four appearances, and the four finalists’ combined seeds were the second-highest on record.

As for this season? Already, 47 different teams have appeared in the AP poll, with over a month until Selection Sunday. And perhaps most notably, top-10 teams are just 32-33 on the road against unranked foes, easily the worst win percentage in those scenarios in the modern era. (That dates back to the 1984-85 season, when the NCAA Tournament expanded to 64 teams.) Marquette, Arizona and Kansas — the No. 4, 5, and 6 teams in this week’s poll — have lost three such games each. And after last weekend, when Illinois and Tennessee became the latest top-10 teams to join the trend, those 33 losses already stand as the most ever in a season in those situations.

[AZCatGirl]

Nothing would get Caleb more excited than to have Duke in our bracket.

[Alieberman]

We are 3-1 vs the top 16 revealed

[Beachcat97]

It’s crazy how much coverage our abysmal 3pt defense is getting. If we lose any more games this year to a team that hits 10+ 3s, it’s going to be pretty frustrating. We’ve had a lot of time to correct this.

[U.P. Zona Fan]

Sometimes teams just get hot, we have been the beneficiary of some of those games.

[Beachcat97]

Sometimes teams just get hot, we have been the beneficiary of some of those games.

But what happened vs. Stanford and OSU...the damage could've been mitigated with smarter defense, no? OSU is dead last in the pac and made TWELVE 3s against us. If we give up that many 3s in the tourney, we're done.

[Chicat]

OSU hit some wild shots. The sun was shining on their asses that day.

[Irish27]

#2 in the West.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-baske ... cketology/

[PHXCATS]

#2 in the West.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-baske ... cketology/

UNC will lose 2 more times
Tennessee will lose at least 2 more
Marquette will lose 2 more times
Kansas will lose 2 more times

UA is locked in as the 1 or 2 in the West

[U.P. Zona Fan]

Field of 68 consensus bracket still has us as a 1 seed.

[Captain Obvious]

Field of 68 consensus bracket still has us as a 1 seed.

247 Sports has North Carolina taking over the number 1 seed from Arizona. I concur.

[84Cat]

Field of 68 consensus bracket still has us as a 1 seed.

247 Sports has North Carolina taking over the number 1 seed from Arizona. I concur.

The team that has lost 3 of their last 6 games? Really, I don't think so. 10 in KenPom & the NET rankings

[U.P. Zona Fan]

Field of 68 consensus bracket still has us as a 1 seed.

247 Sports has North Carolina taking over the number 1 seed from Arizona. I concur.

Here is my shocked face

At the time of this post, bracket matrix has 57 bracketologists that have updated since the game Thursday.
Of those backetologists...
1 has Marquette,
1 has Tennessee,
7 have UNC,
But only the other 48 have Arizona as the 4th 1 seed. So it's not all of them.

My echo chamber does have more than just Zona fans in it.

To be fair, I did not see a 24/7 bracket represented on that sheet. But a guy named Brad found a way to get his bracket picked up by bracketmatrix.com.

The point is, it was a close game with a really good team where we had some no shows and we gave up an and 1 after a wild 3 that was followed by a broken play that could have won us the game. I'm not dooming our chances in March and April because of this game. People on this site are not the only ones with an optimistic opinion of this team.

Goodman probly thinks we suck and might not like Caleb but slobbers all over Mondo. UNC should give you an honorary alumniship.

Edit: I mean UNC should give HIM an alumniship, Freudian slip I guess.

[U.P. Zona Fan]

Also, still the only team top 15 in both O&D Eff in kenpom.

[TheCat]

3 number ones lost last week. One lost to a non quad one team. One lost by 20 points to a quad 1 team. We lost to a quad 1 team with the nation's longest win streak by 3. Tourney is wide open.

[U.P. Zona Fan]

The 4th #1 seed plays at Baylor today, they are a slight favorite in Vegas, and around 5pt fave in most of the predictives.

Misery loves company Houston! We are here for you.

[threenumberones]

3 number ones lost last week. One lost to a non quad one team. One lost by 20 points to a quad 1 team. We lost to a quad 1 team with the nation's longest win streak by 3. Tourney is wide open.

Sorry, what now?

[UAEebs86]

3 number ones lost last week. One lost to a non quad one team. One lost by 20 points to a quad 1 team. We lost to a quad 1 team with the nation's longest win streak by 3. Tourney is wide open.

Sorry, what now?

Three potential #1 seeds.

[pc in NM]

QUESTION: How does the #2 team in a mediocre conference get rewarded with a #1 seed in the NCAA Tourney?

[Alieberman]

QUESTION: How does the #2 team in a mediocre conference get rewarded with a #1 seed in the NCAA Tourney?

Easy…. The selection committee determines they deserve it

[pc in NM]

QUESTION: How does the #2 team in a mediocre conference get rewarded with a #1 seed in the NCAA Tourney?

Easy…. The selection committee determines they deserve it

While factually accurate, it explains nothing.

How does the committee justify the selection?

And, since this is a discussion forum, how about discussing?

[Alieberman]

I think AZ is easily #4 based on record / NET

You are the 1 arguing against them.. make your argument who you think deserves it more…

[azcat49]

Who are you saying deserves the #1 over us? Marquette, North Carolina? I think once we know who would be your pick we could debate.

Remember, it’s the whole body of work and not just the conference season. Our OOC schedule is paying huge dividends and right now, few teams have a road win like we had at Duke

[U.P. Zona Fan]

Wazzu obviously!

[PHXCATS]

QUESTION: How does the #2 team in a mediocre conference get rewarded with a #1 seed in the NCAA Tourney?

Easy…. The selection committee determines they deserve it

While factually accurate, it explains nothing.

How does the committee justify the selection?

And, since this is a discussion forum, how about discussing?

Non conference wins at Duke, neutral vs Michigan State and Alabama and blowing out Wisconsin

[pc in NM]

QUESTION: How does the #2 team in a mediocre conference get rewarded with a #1 seed in the NCAA Tourney?

Easy…. The selection committee determines they deserve it

While factually accurate, it explains nothing.

How does the committee justify the selection?

And, since this is a discussion forum, how about discussing?

Non conference wins at Duke, neutral vs Michigan State and Alabama and blowing out Wisconsin

Good wins! Yes! But, this is merely a list, and neither an explanation nor a justification.