Let's talk '25

[dmjcat]

College basketball is dying. Flagg is rumored to make as much as our whole team makes. I'm excited about the young guys but this having 1/4 to 1/3 of your team transfer every year is killing the sport. How soon before Tommy jumps to a program with more money?

Thats my fear as well.

If you are a coach and have aspirations of winning an NCAA title you have to be coaching at a school in a Power 2 conference or at a private school with a large NIL bag (Think Duke/BYU)

BTW, just a small correction but Flagg is rumored to be making MORE than our whole team makes.

[LuteIsGod]

College basketball is dying. Flagg is rumored to make as much as our whole team makes. I'm excited about the young guys but this having 1/4 to 1/3 of your team transfer every year is killing the sport. How soon before Tommy jumps to a program with more money?

Agree - That was my worry at the beginning of this season and was why I was bummed that our Cats looked so lackluster to start this season. I feel our time to win a NC has run out. I’ve heard all the arguments about why college sports is where it’s at today, but I miss the tradition and rivalries I grew up with because they existed in a microcosm that didn’t appear to be that heavily influenced by other factors. So be it….I can’t do anything about it. Betting companies will figure something out between the universities and the NBA and I probably won’t watch it.

[LuteIsGod]

College basketball is dying. Flagg is rumored to make as much as our whole team makes. I'm excited about the young guys but this having 1/4 to 1/3 of your team transfer every year is killing the sport. How soon before Tommy jumps to a program with more money?

Thats my fear as well.

If you are a coach and have aspirations of winning an NCAA title you have to be coaching at a school in a Power 2 conference or at a private school with a large NIL bag (Think Duke/BYU)

BTW, just a small correction but Flagg is rumored to be making MORE than our whole team makes.

And screw you, Cooper Flagg….I hate you because you’re a Dukie

I hope you suffer from chronic hemorrhoids your entire life!

[Beachcat97]

I really want Duke to lose this weekend. Flagg's perfect season has been nauseating.

[Postmaster]

So Vessar aspires to be in the play-in game for two more years?

[Postmaster]

I really want Duke to lose this weekend. Flagg's perfect season has been nauseating.

I have AU/UH in my pool, and I am the only person with both, so I would appreciate if FloRider and Puke both lose on Saturday.

[LuteIsGod]

So Vessar aspires to be in the play-in game for two more years?

He’s leaving the 97s unis (the best looking unis ever) for the lame baby blue….I hope he diarrheas himself during a game next season!

[ChooChooCat]

How soon before Tommy jumps to a program with more money?

Imo that isn't very likely but we could use one of those hands off secretive booster collectives for certain.

It certainly isn't happening any time soon. Nova offered him the job and the phone call lasted no more than a minute from what I was told. He's got free reign here now and is very well compensated. Just got more money added to his pie now that we don't have to pay a women's coach over a million per year.

[dirtbags]

How soon before Tommy jumps to a program with more money?

Imo that isn't very likely but we could use one of those hands off secretive booster collectives for certain.

i'm feeling like "hands off secretive booster collectives" may become less of a thing moving forward? one reason is that if the terms proposed by the P4 conferences in the house settlement are approved, third party booster money will likely lose a lot of its teeth; the other looming factor is that - as if the finances of college sports aren't enough of a shitshow - we'll probably see private equity make some moves. the two are mutually exclusive.

private credit is already a thing in NCAA sports because it allows athletic departments to receive money that don't sit on their (or their school's) balance sheet. that model is shifting as institutional funds are pitching equity deals to programs and conferences where investors would actually take an ownership position and gain a degree of control as well as returns in asset appreciation vs. a straight repayment or % of revenues.

it's unclear whether institutional investors will be allowed to buy controlling stakes in a conference or program, or if they'll tolerate longer investment horizons, but i am guessing that the appeal of college sports for PE is that it can be mitigative within a portfolio and a hedge - providing somewhat of a stable income stream through long-term media deals, licensing, and season ticket sales. and athletic directors, who have no idea how to run a professional sports organization or deal with agents, are probably attracted to the idea of having an instant cash infusion and maybe generating more participation among the donor base - though i imagine booster equity deals, if allowed to exist alongside PE, would be eclipsed by the scale of what a hedge fund could offer. nonetheless, FBS schools received something like $3B in donations in 2023 with no direct return to those boosters. so the equity model would shift donor giving from philanthropy to investment & control. what could possibly go wrong??

the B1G is already taking bids through an i-bank partner, and the ACC and big12 have been entertaining equity pitches. yormark has said that the conference's future relies on bringing on PE partners (he's also pushing hard for capital investments from VC firms). sadly, arizona athletics is still in pretty rough financial shape and DRF's five-point plan to the ABOR kind of sets us up for this. the concern is that it would make profit & growth the only priority and set her down a perilous path for not just failure but possible loss of control of the program:

In all likelihood, the first university to sign a major deal will likely be a smaller Power Four football program. While the biggest programs will have no problem paying players and putting together big NIL packages, smaller schools will likely struggle to be competitive. This is the opening that a firm needs. They’ll approach one of these smaller programs with an offer of $150 million (or more) for 51% of the say in how they run their football program.

For an AD with little business experience trying to put together a winning program, this will look like a good deal. Cash up front to build a team and a promise from the guys in suits to juice revenue in the future. The problem, of course, is that as soon as this deal is done, revenue growth will become the only priority. The investors won’t balk at putting in their own athletics director and putting profits ahead of players, education, fans, and the institution. That’s a horrible, horrible long-term decision for the university, but it’s entirely plausible.

- Forbes: Private Equity's Next Big Shopping Spree - College Football

- SI: Big 12 Nearing Deal With Venture Capital Firm to Infuse League With Millions in Funding

[Postmaster]

How does it work when you are investing in a public institution?
Is it going to be a bond type scenario?

Will we see PE buying a nice stake in an aircraft carrier?

It also seems like most schools are not turning much of a profit. Where does the return come from? Does the AD just give the PE a percentage of the TV money?

This is like watching the Dune movie, the one with Sting in it.

[NickyBCats]

Sounds like Burries to announce publicly this week. Choo do you know any offers we have out in the portal? Backup ball handler and a stretch type big would be nice.

[IndianaZonaFan]

When sheer said it was going to be a big week- I’m hoping that means we are getting Burries, and Carter is coming back. Am I getting my hopes too high?

[Alieberman]

It would be nice to start getting some addition news instead of subtraction news

[dirtbags]

How does it work when you are investing in a public institution?
Is it going to be a bond type scenario?

Will we see PE buying a nice stake in an aircraft carrier?

It also seems like most schools are not turning much of a profit. Where does the return come from? Does the AD just give the PE a percentage of the TV money?

This is like watching the Dune movie, the one with Sting in it.

right? it's bananas. the forbes article delves a bit into the allure of college sports and why it's ripe for disruption by private equity. revenues would come from a cut of stable income streams (like tv deals), as mentioned earlier, plus management fees and senior notes so they get paid first. i forget what else. if you drill down into the links, there are also details from the pitch decks and a sanitized cap table for a school in roughly the UW/UO revenue range, not far from arizona's. revenue ration is around 4x, lower than the NBA (11x) and NFL (8-9x) with a longer horizon, so who knows if it'll be enticing enough for those funds.

i also wonder if they'll press the limits on "public" based on programs' own rhetoric over the years about being an independent entity that doesn't take any public funding (ehh). ceding even a minor stake seems like it could be problematic - the big12's negotiations with a PE firm last summer was for $800M-$1B for up to 20% of the conference - and the problem compounds with multiple stakeholders and conflicts with say, parties that have an interest in sports betting. kind of worrisome.

[azgreg]

Sounds like Burries to announce publicly this week. Choo do you know any offers we have out in the portal? Backup ball handler and a stretch type big would be nice.

9:45 Wednesday morning.

[pc in NM]

Sounds like Burries to announce publicly this week. Choo do you know any offers we have out in the portal? Backup ball handler and a stretch type big would be nice.

9:45 Wednesday morning.

what time zone is this?

[azgreg]

Sounds like Burries to announce publicly this week. Choo do you know any offers we have out in the portal? Backup ball handler and a stretch type big would be nice.

9:45 Wednesday morning.

what time zone is this?

[Beachcat97]

If we do get BB, are we looking at...

JB
BB
Koa
Awaka
Krivas

Bench: Dell'Orso, Aristode, plus some transfers

This is assuming CB leaves.

[pc in NM]

This projection is pretty optimistic!

Men’s college basketball way-too-early Top 25: Purdue’s No. 1; Florida isn’t going anywhere

11. Arizona

Projected starters: Jaden Bradley, Portal Player TBD, Anthony Dell’Orso, Koa Peat (freshman), Motiejus Krivas

Notable returners: Tobe Awaka

Other newcomers: Dwayne Aristode, Bryce James

Even with the loss of Henri Veesaar (now at North Carolina), the Wildcats have one of the best and deepest frontcourts in the country with three startable players in Koa Peat, Motiejus Krivas and Tobe Awaka.

Peat is versatile enough to slide to the three and allow coach Tommy Lloyd to go with a giant frontline, but he’s probably better for the offense as a playmaking four. Motiejus Krivas was probably about to have a breakout campaign before a foot injury ended his season in December. Lloyd’s priority now is finding a Caleb Love replacement. The quality of that eventual add could determine whether the Wildcats stay this high, but banking on Lloyd fielding a top-10ish outfit is almost a given at this point.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/626182 ... Id=9651934

[Winger]

This projection is pretty optimistic!

Men’s college basketball way-too-early Top 25: Purdue’s No. 1; Florida isn’t going anywhere

11. Arizona

Projected starters: Jaden Bradley, Portal Player TBD, Anthony Dell’Orso, Koa Peat (freshman), Motiejus Krivas

Notable returners: Tobe Awaka

Other newcomers: Dwayne Aristode, Bryce James

Even with the loss of Henri Veesaar (now at North Carolina), the Wildcats have one of the best and deepest frontcourts in the country with three startable players in Koa Peat, Motiejus Krivas and Tobe Awaka.

Peat is versatile enough to slide to the three and allow coach Tommy Lloyd to go with a giant frontline, but he’s probably better for the offense as a playmaking four. Motiejus Krivas was probably about to have a breakout campaign before a foot injury ended his season in December. Lloyd’s priority now is finding a Caleb Love replacement. The quality of that eventual add could determine whether the Wildcats stay this high, but banking on Lloyd fielding a top-10ish outfit is almost a given at this point.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/626182 ... Id=9651934

Like it and it doesn't even include Burries.

[Alieberman]

That does not look like a top 15 roster to me… hoping there is more to come

[Beachcat97]

CB's decision will be pretty big. Feel like with him, we're solidly top 10-15. Without him, fringe top 25.

[IndianaZonaFan]

If we get

Jaden Bradley
Brayden Burries
Carter Bryant
Koa Peat
Mo Krivas

And a bench of Dell’Orso, Awaka, transfer point/combo guard, and Aristode…that’s a top 5 roster

[Beachcat97]

If we get

Jaden Bradley
Brayden Burries
Carter Bryant
Koa Peat
Mo Krivas

And a bench of Dell’Orso, Awaka, transfer point/combo guard, and Aristode…that’s a top 5 roster

I don't see a backup center.

[Winger]

i'm feeling like "hands off secretive booster collectives" may become less of a thing moving forward?

I'd wager that you know better than me but haven't the courts opined that limiting a player's income isn't cool? How can the institutions keep collective based money away from the players at this point?

Regarding PE, a subject I bet you also know better than I, but one I have personal experience with. The worse the balance sheet the easier it is to get picked off. But, all of the sports-related PE "deals" I have seen have been based on selling away a team or a league's advertising, not the team or league itself. I haven't seen a PE salesperson that didn't proffer that they could everything in the world better than everyone else, but running a sports team seems a stretch. Even an AD seems a stretch to me.

Now tho I can't confirm this yet, one seemingly reasonable explanation for DRF jettisoning all my buddies at Learfield and bringing all of that in house is to own it for a later "deal" with PE.

You let PE run our beloved University of Arizona Athletic Department and you might as well kiss it goodbye imo.

[Chicat]

If we get

Jaden Bradley
Brayden Burries
Carter Bryant
Koa Peat
Mo Krivas

And a bench of Dell’Orso, Awaka, transfer point/combo guard, and Aristode…that’s a top 5 roster

I don't see a backup center.

Awaka is a 5.

He’s certainly not a 4.

[TheCat]

How about picking up Ian Jackson a former 5 star. I think he would certainly be someone that could assist in scoring. I like transfers more than most on this site. If you look at the top 50 in scoring I think you would find 2 freshman (Flagg and Queen) at least the last time I looked and none in 3 pt percentage. You need look no further than the national championship to find the biggest threat on both teams was a transfer.

[84Cat]

How about picking up Ian Jackson a former 5 star. I think he would certainly be someone that could assist in scoring. I like transfers more than most on this site. If you look at the top 50 in scoring I think you would find 2 freshman (Flagg and Queen) at least the last time I looked and none in 3 pt percentage. You need look no further than the national championship to find the biggest threat on both teams was a transfer.

He's from the Bronx and I'm not sure we could afford him. After we find out the Burries decision, we will start to see who we are going after

[TheCat]

If St. John's is involved there is no question we can't compete if it is all NIL. As I stated before St. John's has a billionaire benefactor who has stated publicly that St. John's will never lose a recruit just because of NIL.

[Lando05]

i'm feeling like "hands off secretive booster collectives" may become less of a thing moving forward?

I'd wager that you know better than me but haven't the courts opined that limiting a player's income isn't cool? How can the institutions keep collective based money away from the players at this point?

Regarding PE, a subject I bet you also know better than I, but one I have personal experience with. The worse the balance sheet the easier it is to get picked off. But, all of the sports-related PE "deals" I have seen have been based on selling away a team or a league's advertising, not the team or league itself. I haven't seen a PE salesperson that didn't proffer that they could everything in the world better than everyone else, but running a sports team seems a stretch. Even an AD seems a stretch to me.

Now tho I can't confirm this yet, one seemingly reasonable explanation for DRF jettisoning all my buddies at Learfield and bringing all of that in house is to own it for a later "deal" with PE.

You let PE run our beloved University of Arizona Athletic Department and you might as well kiss it goodbye imo.

PE ruins everything it touches. One of the biggest problem with our economy is due to PE. Keep PE far away from Arizona athletics.

[azgreg]

If we get

Jaden Bradley
Brayden Burries
Carter Bryant
Koa Peat
Mo Krivas

And a bench of Dell’Orso, Awaka, transfer point/combo guard, and Aristode…that’s a top 5 roster

I don't see a backup center.

We go small and run like the wind brother.

[dirtbags]

i'm feeling like "hands off secretive booster collectives" may become less of a thing moving forward?

I'd wager that you know better than me but haven't the courts opined that limiting a player's income isn't cool? How can the institutions keep collective based money away from the players at this point?

Regarding PE, a subject I bet you also know better than I, but one I have personal experience with. The worse the balance sheet the easier it is to get picked off. But, all of the sports-related PE "deals" I have seen have been based on selling away a team or a league's advertising, not the team or league itself. I haven't seen a PE salesperson that didn't proffer that they could everything in the world better than everyone else, but running a sports team seems a stretch. Even an AD seems a stretch to me.

Now tho I can't confirm this yet, one seemingly reasonable explanation for DRF jettisoning all my buddies at Learfield and bringing all of that in house is to own it for a later "deal" with PE.

You let PE run our beloved University of Arizona Athletic Department and you might as well kiss it goodbye imo.

PE ruins everything it touches. One of the biggest problem with our economy is due to PE. Keep PE far away from Arizona athletics.

vultures, all of them.

[Winger]

Want to get real about next season? Talk about something no one else recognizes?

We need a PG that can facilitate, get his own, and finish off games.

Got schooled at the highest level almost every time at the PG position.

Bradley brings a lot but not this.

[azcat49]

Want to get real about next season? Talk about something no one else recognizes?

We need a PG that can facilitate, get his own, and finish off games.

Got schooled at the highest level almost every time at the PG position.

Bradley brings a lot but not this.

Is that Burries or are you talking portal?

[dmjcat]

[Postmaster]

Does James suck? He hardly gets any mention.

[MrKyle]

Want to get real about next season? Talk about something no one else recognizes?

We need a PG that can facilitate, get his own, and finish off games.

Got schooled at the highest level almost every time at the PG position.

Bradley brings a lot but not this.

I'm with you on that one, I've been telling my buddies that for better part of a year now.

People are quick to hop on the "why are you hating on JB wagon" but it isn't a slight against him, he is much more of a combo guard who can play the 1 when needed.

We've seen what great PG's can do for a team, especially come tournament time.

Picking up Burries would be great, as would CB coming back

[Beachcat97]

Does James suck? He hardly gets any mention.

I don't think he sucks, but I think it would be surprising to see him get significant minutes for AZ next season.

[ChooChooCat]

Does James suck? He hardly gets any mention.

He doesn't start for his HS team. He can shoot 3s and that's about it at this point in time.

[Fishclamps]

Does James suck? He hardly gets any mention.

Hes very much a project player

[TucsonClip]

Want to get real about next season? Talk about something no one else recognizes?

We need a PG that can facilitate, get his own, and finish off games.

Got schooled at the highest level almost every time at the PG position.

Bradley brings a lot but not this.

Couple things I've been hammering elsewhere for a while now.

1. We need another legit guard, and I'm going to pound the table again, for the 4th straight off-season. The backup PG can't be a Conrad type. They need to be able to play on and off the ball and shot create. If they have a jumper, even better.

If the staff feels like that's Aristode and we just need a backup PG, ok. But I'll be here...


2.Seeing what we saw with Henri this year, how the spacing on the floor opened everything up on offense, plus our defensive versatility giving many teams fits, I just can't fathom being ok with what we have now I'm the front court, specifically Krivas and Awaka.

Maybe Lloyd's hands are tied, but, again.... This is the year to go for it. Find a way.


3. If we land Burries, and Carter comes back, we have a legit shot at a FF. I'm not willing to be ok with the back end of our roster. It's time to fucking go for it. Find the money to make everyone happy and add the missing pieces.

The needs are as clear as day to me. The most glaring need is a legitimate 6th man guard with shot creation ability.

Next, it's adding more versatility to the front court, which is why it pisses me the hell off Henri left to UNC.

[TucsonClip]

Want to get real about next season? Talk about something no one else recognizes?

We need a PG that can facilitate, get his own, and finish off games.

Got schooled at the highest level almost every time at the PG position.

Bradley brings a lot but not this.

Is that Burries or are you talking portal?

I've legitimately only seen one full game of Burries... He's the goods though.

[Fishclamps]

Want to get real about next season? Talk about something no one else recognizes?

We need a PG that can facilitate, get his own, and finish off games.

Got schooled at the highest level almost every time at the PG position.

Bradley brings a lot but not this.

Couple things I've been hammering elsewhere for a while now.

1. We need another legit guard, and I'm going to pound the table again, for the 4th straight off-season. The backup PG can't be a Conrad type. They need to be able to play on and off the ball and shot create. If they have a jumper, even better.

If the staff feels like that's Aristode and we just need a backup PG, ok. But I'll be here...


2.Seeing what we saw with Henri this year, how the spacing on the floor opened everything up on offense, plus our defensive versatility giving many teams fits, I just can't fathom being ok with what we have now I'm the front court, specifically Krivas and Awaka.

Maybe Lloyd's hands are tied, but, again.... This is the year to go for it. Find a way.


3. If we land Burries, and Carter comes back, we have a legit shot at a FF. I'm not willing to be ok with the back end of our roster. It's time to fucking go for it. Find the money to make everyone happy and add the missing pieces.

The needs are as clear as day to me. The most glaring need is a legitimate 6th man guard with shot creation ability.

Next, it's adding more versatility to the front court, which is why it pisses me the hell off Henri left to UNC.

Especially since almost all of UNCs guards bailed lol

[gronk4heisman]

If we get

Jaden Bradley
Brayden Burries
Carter Bryant
Koa Peat
Mo Krivas

And a bench of Dell’Orso, Awaka, transfer point/combo guard, and Aristode…that’s a top 5 roster

I don't see a backup center.

That is odd, considering I see this years starting center on that bench.

[pc in NM]

WTF am I doing watch SportsCenter on a weekday morning??

[VegasCatFan]

WTF am I doing watch SportsCenter on a weekday morning??

I'm right there with you. lol

[WildcatStunner]

LETS GO!

[pc in NM]

Got him!!

[Alieberman]

Huge news!!

BTFD!

[EastCoastCat]

Woohoo!!!