Population Trends

[CatsbyAZ]

Population Trends

Always a passive interest of mine - let's start with Japan

The UN forecasts quite a steep drop from over 120M to less than 80M by century's end:



I not sure Japan's population will drop quite so much, assuming the UN's projection can't account for Japan potentially increasing foreign immigration (a nation steadfastly opposed to immigration) or account for technological advances such as fertility advancements and state sponsored babies born outside the womb. Ok, maybe the latter is a little far-fetched but at this point, given how quickly A.I. is advancing, we're all playing catch up to technology from here on out.

Another potential reversal to fertility trends is Japan's (like America's) greater shift to a work-from-home model. Which is for more conducive to raising children while earning a salary. Already more employed than unemployed mothers are birthing children, meaning the potential is there:

[Merkin]

What's going on in France is quite interesting too in terms of the declining birth rate and raising the retirement age and the resulting demonstrations. Imagine many French are opposed to immigration.





Was having a similar discussion with my family regarding our birth rate. My folks had 6 kids, and between the 6 of us had 14 grandkids which is just over the replacement rate. The youngest grandkid is in her upper 20's. My 30 year old daughter has 2 boys, and is done. My 2 sons are in their 30s with no near prospects of having grandkids.

Including my 2 grandkids, there are 9 great-grandkids. Not even replacement for the 14 grandkids, much less their spouses.

And from what I see here in the Central Coast, pretty typical for white families, and looks like a nationwide issue.



I live in area with a very large Latino population, and just anecdotally they are still having lots of kids. I imagine due to many of them being immigrants working in agriculture. Many elementary schools here are 95%+ Latino.

But looks like that is changing too.




Which is why immigration needs to increase to maintain the entitlement programs. I know the GOP wants to raise the SS retirement age, but there are other solutions, such as stop capping the maximum SS deduction from paychecks.

[CatsbyAZ]

Which is why immigration needs to increase to maintain the entitlement programs.

My Dad and I go back and forth on the different options on the table for maintaining programs like SS. We see what's going on in France right now, with intense demonstrations against Macron's proposal to raise the retirement age. The U.S. happens to be on better footing than both France and China...where my Dad and I's most longstanding point of disagreement stems.

My Dad is right to say China is facing a steeper pitfall with their population aging out of the workforce. Yes, China does have an SS prgram for their (ballooning) retired population. Since 2014 China's working population decreased for the first time, and has decreased every year since, which in turn is increasing their retired population.

However, where I argue that my Dad is mistaken is his belief that China will resolve the budget pitfalls of their rising retirement population the same way you would see done in the first world. You won't see an authoritarian Communist China resolve their bankrupting entitlement programs with plans to increase immigration or vote on raising the retirement age. A fatalistic, authoritarian China will simply shut down their entitlement programs and expect everybody to work until they die.

For further comparison of China to the First World:

Part of the reason China’s population ballooned to 1.4 billion is because the lifespan of a Chinese citizen DOUBLED since 1960, after the “Great Chinese Famine” (1959-1961) ended. That expectancy number will begin plateauing now that China’s overall population will begin dropping starting this year. And China's population is expected to decline by the hundreds of millions by the end of this century.

As you can see in the graph, life expectancy in the U.S. has dropped for the first time since likely our Civil War (graph doesn’t go that far back). The first reason that comes to mind is Covid, but that’s a simplistic answer. Before Covid, life expectancy across the First World had stopped growing and in places like the UK and Russia (2nd World?), life expectancy had already started declining.

For the rest of our lives, I expect to see a gradual decline in life expectancy in the U.S. for the following reasons all working together: Rising alcoholism, rising drug and prescription abuse, rising obesity and diabetes, rising suicides, and, especially in the Third World, rising pollution and poverty returning in full force to places like India and Pakistan (but also newly arising in the First World – see the increase of homelessness across the West Coast).

Across the First World the root of the reasons are 1) falling into addiction (alcohol, drug, prescriptions), 2) unwillingness to take care of personal health (obesity, diabetes), and 3) lack of spiritual or personal vision (suicides + addictions).

[Merkin]

I recall reading a few years ago that the children of boomers (like mine) will be the first generation in the US having a life expectancy less than that of their parents.

At the time, they blamed on the the video game culture, where kids are no longer playing outside. I was just talking to my wife about that, how you never see kids tossing a baseball or football around. When I was a kid, we only had 2 TV channels, home PCs weren't even thought of, and Pong was just about ready to come out. We were always outside during the summer. A lot of the time my mom didn't even know where we were, just be home for dinner.

[pc in NM]

I recall reading a few years ago that the children of boomers (like mine) will be the first generation in the US having a life expectancy less than that of their parents.

At the time, they blamed on the the video game culture, where kids are no longer playing outside. I was just talking to my wife about that, how you never see kids tossing a baseball or football around. When I was a kid, we only had 2 TV channels, home PCs weren't even thought of, and Pong was just about ready to come out. We were always outside during the summer. A lot of the time my mom didn't even know where we were, just be home for dinner.

That may be the trend...

My son (51 YO) still plays hockey (!!??) and he & his wife are competing in a triathlon the day after my granddaughter graduates from HS - both my granddaughter and grandson are/were exceptional athletes through HS. (And all three tore ACL's during HS!!)

[Merkin]

Amazing PC, hockey at 51!

My doctor told me no one should play intensive sports (in my case basketball) after they turn 40. He was right, as I developed planters fasciitis in my feet requiring orthotics, shin splints, and bursitis in my shoulders which took several steroid injections to clear up.

Had the last laugh though, he tore his Achilles tendon playing basketball after 40 at the Y with the young guys. Although I didn't laugh and felt bad for him. Had to use a knee scooter for weeks.

[ASUHATER!]

I recall reading a few years ago that the children of boomers (like mine) will be the first generation in the US having a life expectancy less than that of their parents.

At the time, they blamed on the the video game culture, where kids are no longer playing outside. I was just talking to my wife about that, how you never see kids tossing a baseball or football around. When I was a kid, we only had 2 TV channels, home PCs weren't even thought of, and Pong was just about ready to come out. We were always outside during the summer. A lot of the time my mom didn't even know where we were, just be home for dinner.

People my age and younger though aren't aging like boomers or older people. We don't have the same wrinkles and haggard looks. I'm 37 but all the time people say I look like 28

[Merkin]

Just heard on the radio that by 2035 half of the world's population will be obese.

[Carcassdragger]

Just heard on the radio that by 2035 half of the world's population will be obese.

Mass produced processed food and high fructose corn syrup. Death.

[CatsbyAZ]

Part of the reason China’s population ballooned to 1.4 billion is because the lifespan of a Chinese citizen DOUBLED since 1960, after the “Great Chinese Famine” (1959-1961) ended. That expectancy number will begin plateauing now that China’s overall population will begin dropping starting this year. And China's population is expected to decline by the hundreds of millions by the end of this century.

Going into this decade, China's net deaths are outnumbering total births by year, each year; deaths steadily rise as China's outsized "boomer" generation ages:

[84Cat]

[dovecanyoncat]

Been listening to PZ a lot lately. Always confident, especially about demographics. His timelines are rushed, but his numbers are sound imo.

[CatsbyAZ]

Unfortunate realities for South Korea. The video below dooms South Korea’s future “demographically, economically, socially, culturally, and militarily” due to a prolonged fertility crisis, the lowest in the world, at 0.72 children per woman.

(raw link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ufmu1WD2TSk)

“By 2060, the South Korea we know and love today will no longer exist.”

“Within four generations, 100 South Koreans will turns into 5.”

“Today South Korea’s population is at an all-time high, as are its workforce and its GDP, which is still growing. But demographics hits you like a freight train.”

I’m glad this video calls into question the UN’s population projection models. For years UN projections have consistently overshot future population growths due to how woefully they ignore limiting factors such as ongoing food scarcity, ongoing loss of agricultural capacity (such as Zimbabwe’s), ongoing emigration due to unrest, collapsed health systems (such as AIDs overwhelming certain regions of Sub-Saharan Africa around the 2000s), climate change, restrictive childbirth policies (specifically China’s), and whether it’s even realistic for certain nations to have continued growth without risking a sharp potential in civil war, famines, or health crises.

[dovecanyoncat]

By 2060 robots will be able to have robot sex and to make robot babies. Both robot parents will work factory jobs while robot kids are in sleep stasis until robot mom and dad come back home.