Statistical Jump

luteformayor2 · Post by **luteformayor2** » Sun Jan 18, 2015 7:44 am

18 games into the season, a team needs to play a once in a lifetime game to make the statistical jump that we made after last night's game.

Our AdjO ranking jumped 10 spots.

We went from #10 in Kenpom to #5.

When in the fuck does a team ever out offensive rebound another team by 13! Jesus. We played Nasty last night and it was beautiful.

If the AP voters are watching games, we should jump over Utah, Lville, Duke, Kansas, and Wisconsin in the polls. We should start this week back at #5 in the AP and right in place for an amazing season.

dcZONAfan · Post by **dcZONAfan** » Sun Jan 18, 2015 7:46 am

Agreed. But I think we end up at #7 with Wisky at 5 and Duke at 6. It's not right, but it's what will happen

CBCat · Post by **CBCat** » Sun Jan 18, 2015 9:38 am

luteformayor2 wrote:18 games into the season, a team needs to play a once in a lifetime game to make the statistical jump that we made after last night's game.

Our AdjO ranking jumped 10 spots.

We went from #10 in Kenpom to #5.

When in the fuck does a team ever out offensive rebound another team by 13! Jesus. We played Nasty last night and it was beautiful.

If the AP voters are watching games, we should jump over Utah, Lville, Duke, Kansas, and Wisconsin in the polls. We should start this week back at #5 in the AP and right in place for an amazing season.

That packline D was incredible by the guys last night. Miller even had me focused.

UAEebs86 · Post by **UAEebs86** » Sun Jan 18, 2015 9:55 am

dcZONAfan wrote:Agreed. But I think we end up at #7 with Wisky at 5 and Duke at 6. It's not right, but it's what will happen

Just because Duke rebounded against the 'Ville doesn't make up for that beat down at home against the U. We should jump them.

CalStateTempe · Post by **CalStateTempe** » Sun Jan 18, 2015 9:56 am

UAEebs86 wrote:
dcZONAfan wrote:Agreed. But I think we end up at #7 with Wisky at 5 and Duke at 6. It's not right, but it's what will happen
Just because Duke rebounded against the 'Ville doesn't make up for that beat down at home against the U. We should jump them.

Seriously, Arizona's beat down yesterday was better than Dukes.

luteformayor2 · Post by **luteformayor2** » Sun Jan 18, 2015 10:57 am

dcZONAfan wrote:Agreed. But I think we end up at #7 with Wisky at 5 and Duke at 6. It's not right, but it's what will happen

You could make a case, a slight one, for Wisky above us. But duke, back-to-back losses, that would be horse shit.

Chicat · Post by **Chicat** » Sun Jan 18, 2015 11:11 am

I honestly have no idea where to rank Duke.

az91 · Post by **az91** » Sun Jan 18, 2015 11:33 am

It sucks that Gonzaga is 3. They play in a joke of a conference and won't be challenged the rest of the regular season.

Longhorned · Post by **Longhorned** » Sun Jan 18, 2015 1:47 pm

Today's new top 25 rankings from CBS Sports puts Arizona at #9, behind Kansas and everyone else you can think of.

UAEebs86 · Post by **UAEebs86** » Sun Jan 18, 2015 2:21 pm

Longhorned wrote:Today's new top 25 rankings from CBS Sports puts Arizona at #9, behind Kansas and everyone else you can think of.

What a joke. Duke goes 1-1, the loss a blowout at home, and moves up 5 spots?

luteformayor2 · Post by **luteformayor2** » Sun Jan 18, 2015 4:42 pm

Longhorned wrote:Today's new top 25 rankings from CBS Sports puts Arizona at #9, behind Kansas and everyone else you can think of.

That's why Kenpom, RPI, and BPI matter. Ap and coaches polls matter a bit but CBS nutting all over it's face doesn't mean anything. Move on

luteformayor2 · Post by **luteformayor2** » Sun Jan 18, 2015 4:44 pm

We are:

Kenpom #5
RPI #6
BPI #6

That is what matters. Trending up while teams like Wisconsin, Duke, Louisville, and Kansas are trending down.

CBCat · Post by **CBCat** » Sun Jan 18, 2015 9:32 pm

How do we win 2 with one being ranked ahead of us and then go down a spot? Don't get it.

EOCT · Post by **EOCT** » Mon Jan 19, 2015 3:07 pm

Number 7 in today's AP ranking. Seems nearly right, but I'd put us at 6------ ahead of Duke who I think deserves a 9/10 after losing two straight to weak teams and then beating an over-ranked Louisville.

On to Furd. Should be an interesting matchup there as we learn to defend an almost-Triangle offense. Can't wait.

luteformayor2 · Post by **luteformayor2** » Tue Jan 20, 2015 4:52 am

Now we are:

Kenpom #4 (having beat #3 head-to-head)
BPI #5

luteformayor2 · Post by **luteformayor2** » Tue Jan 20, 2015 4:55 am

What poster was it last year who put together the list of all the teams in past season who were top 20 in ADJO and ADJD? Wasn't there a correlation between this and winning championships?

Reason is there are only 4 teams in this group this year - we are on of them. Along with UK, UVA, and UNC.

Chicat · Post by **Chicat** » Tue Jan 20, 2015 6:00 am

luteformayor2 wrote:What poster was it last year who put together the list of all the teams in past season who were top 20 in ADJO and ADJD? Wasn't there a correlation between this and winning championships?

Reason is there are only 4 teams in this group this year - we are on of them. Along with UK, UVA, and UNC.

That stat was true for every champion up to last year.

Longhorned · Post by **Longhorned** » Tue Jan 20, 2015 6:18 am

Chicat wrote:
luteformayor2 wrote:What poster was it last year who put together the list of all the teams in past season who were top 20 in ADJO and ADJD? Wasn't there a correlation between this and winning championships?

Reason is there are only 4 teams in this group this year - we are on of them. Along with UK, UVA, and UNC.
That stat was true for every champion up to last year.

That's Winger.

RE: Duke, if Coach K can put together a deep run with this team then he deserves all ESPN slobber he can carry on his lap. Who gives up on his team's ability to defend and throws in the towel with a newly introduced zone after mid-January? Against a top-25 offense, let alone top-50, my guess is that team is in trouble moving forward.

Puerco · Post by **Puerco** » Wed Jan 21, 2015 5:50 am

Come back, Winger.

UAEebs86 · Post by **UAEebs86** » Wed Jan 21, 2015 5:58 am

Puerco wrote:Come back, Winger.

He hangs out on the Scout Premium boards now.
Doesn't seem to want to join us for some reason.

Longhorned · Post by **Longhorned** » Wed Jan 21, 2015 7:33 am

UAEebs86 wrote:
Puerco wrote:Come back, Winger.
He hangs out on the Scout Premium boards now.
Doesn't seem to want to join us for some reason.

I seriously doubt that he doesn't want to join us. As you know, what happens on Scout is that he makes a post and then posters like UACat23 research a bunch of numbers and provide a new statistical analysis in response, to which Winger counters with the relative merits of different data sets, Rey quibbles on interpretive grounds, biases are clarified, and then there's a return to hard numbers that can't be disputed but require a larger sample size. You get caught up in that back-and-forth, and you just can't jump to another board and show a raw analysis to people who haven't been privy to all the dimensions and permutations of the unfolding argument.

PieceOfMeat · Post by **PieceOfMeat** » Wed Jan 21, 2015 9:27 am

Longhorned wrote:
UAEebs86 wrote:
Puerco wrote:Come back, Winger.
He hangs out on the Scout Premium boards now.
Doesn't seem to want to join us for some reason.
I seriously doubt that he doesn't want to join us. As you know, what happens on Scout is that he makes a post and then posters like UACat23 research a bunch of numbers and provide a new statistical analysis in response, to which Winger counters with the relative merits of different data sets, Rey quibbles on interpretive grounds, biases are clarified, and then there's a return to hard numbers that can't be disputed but require a larger sample size. You get caught up in that back-and-forth, and you just can't jump to another board and show a raw analysis to people who haven't been privy to all the dimensions and permutations of the unfolding argument.

So what you're saying is, he thinks we're too stupid to keep up.

Olsondogg · Post by **Olsondogg** » Wed Jan 21, 2015 9:31 am

PieceOfMeat wrote:
Longhorned wrote:
UAEebs86 wrote:
Puerco wrote:Come back, Winger.
He hangs out on the Scout Premium boards now.
Doesn't seem to want to join us for some reason.
I seriously doubt that he doesn't want to join us. As you know, what happens on Scout is that he makes a post and then posters like UACat23 research a bunch of numbers and provide a new statistical analysis in response, to which Winger counters with the relative merits of different data sets, Rey quibbles on interpretive grounds, biases are clarified, and then there's a return to hard numbers that can't be disputed but require a larger sample size. You get caught up in that back-and-forth, and you just can't jump to another board and show a raw analysis to people who haven't been privy to all the dimensions and permutations of the unfolding argument.
So what you're saying is, he thinks we're too stupid to keep up.

I've read the thread over there and I know I am too stupid.

luteformayor2 · Post by **luteformayor2** » Wed Jan 21, 2015 3:43 pm

A sweep this week with good numbers should jump us to #3 in KenPom regardless of whether any of the 1-4 teams lose.

It isn't an end all to be up high on kenpom, but it is the most fascinating way to see the value of your team. UVA and UK are gonna be up top all year until they lose, but being #3 come Sunday would be a testament to the strength's of the team. I myself have even been a bit down during points of this year, but our stats are really quite amazing and we do have the potential to be better than last year.

gumby · Post by **gumby** » Fri Jan 23, 2015 12:00 am

4-0 against Top 50.

Puerco · Post by **Puerco** » Fri Jan 23, 2015 3:47 am

So all our losses are bad losses?

luteformayor2 · Post by **luteformayor2** » Fri Jan 23, 2015 5:48 am

Moving on up...

Kenpom from #5 to #4
AdjO from #21 to #13
AdjD stagnant at #10

gumby · Post by **gumby** » Fri Jan 23, 2015 7:24 am

Puerco wrote:So all our losses are bad losses?

In a world where there's only good and bad. Beaver loss trending up.

Alieberman · Post by **Alieberman** » Fri Jan 23, 2015 7:42 am

Puerco wrote:So all our losses are bad losses?

Is there such thing as a good loss?

Olsondogg · Post by **Olsondogg** » Fri Jan 23, 2015 7:51 am

Alieberman wrote:
Puerco wrote:So all our losses are bad losses?
Is there such thing as a good loss?

A crazy ex wife in an ugly divorce?

Puerco · Post by **Puerco** » Fri Jan 23, 2015 8:02 am

Have I mentioned that I hate Gary Parrish?

luteformayor2 · Post by **luteformayor2** » Sat Jan 24, 2015 5:20 pm

Through today's games thus far, we are looking VERY GOOD

AdjO #10 (That is better than Kentucky at #13)
AdjD #7

WE ARE TRENDING UP. Let's whoop the Bears and keep moving up. A quality win poises us to jump Gonzaga to #3 overall.

luteformayor2 · Post by **luteformayor2** » Sat Jan 24, 2015 5:22 pm

Not to mention Michigan is playing Wisconsin toe to toe. Michigan winning now. That upset or a close game would bolster our stats more than any other and drastically improve our SOS

luteformayor2 · Post by **luteformayor2** » Sun Jan 25, 2015 8:55 am

.9554 pyth - up from .9514

TRENDING UP

luteformayor2 · Post by **luteformayor2** » Sat Jan 31, 2015 4:13 am

Now - .9617 pyth

Kenpom #3 (we jumped gonzaga)
AdjD up to #4

CBCat · Post by **CBCat** » Sat Jan 31, 2015 8:27 am

luteformayor2 wrote:Now - .9617 pyth

Kenpom #3 (we jumped gonzaga)
AdjD up to #4

What sayeth you Winger?

gumby · Post by **gumby** » Sat Jan 31, 2015 9:40 am

I'd imagine for consistency sake, he'd say better chance than last year, with the standard "depends on matchups" caveat, followed by a hair band reference.

WildcatStunner · Post by **WildcatStunner** » Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:52 am

Adj O dropped from 11th to 14th (shooting 10% below our average an 15 turnovers).

Reydituto · Post by **Reydituto** » Sat Jan 31, 2015 11:46 am

gumby wrote:I'd imagine for consistency sake, he'd say better chance than last year, with the standard "depends on matchups" caveat, followed by a hair band reference.

That's about right.

WildcatStunner wrote:Adj O dropped from 11th to 14th (shooting 10% below our average an 15 turnovers).

That's about right.

Ugly game on that side of the ball. AdjT went down 0.2 to 67.3 after that game as well.

The gap in AdjD between Kentucky and the field is startling.

UofACat23 · Post by **UofACat23** » Sat Jan 31, 2015 2:01 pm

The actual numbers are even more interesting than the rankings:

2015 Adj O: 115 v. 2014 Adj O:114.7
2015 Adj D: 86.9 v. 2014 Adj D: 88.5

So they've improved overall in both categories, and surprisingly, the bigger improvement is in Adj D.

CalStateTempe · Post by **CalStateTempe** » Sat Jan 31, 2015 2:11 pm

Where are we relative to lasts years BASH injury? Because I believe that we would've been the odds favorite to cut the nets had that unfortunate injury not occurred.

Is there a way to calculate 2014 pre and post BASH injury Adj O and D?

Chicat · Post by **Chicat** » Sat Jan 31, 2015 2:20 pm

CalStateTempe wrote:Where are we relative to lasts years BASH injury? Because I believe that we would've been the odds favorite to cut the nets had that unfortunate injury not occurred.

Is there a way to calculate 2014 pre and post BASH injury Adj O and D?

If you search posts at TOS around the date of Bash's injury you could probably find our metrics to that point in the season. If I remember correctly we were 1st in defense and out of the top 20 in offense, but I could be totally remembering that wrong.

CalStateTempe · Post by **CalStateTempe** » Sat Jan 31, 2015 2:33 pm

Chicat wrote:
CalStateTempe wrote:Where are we relative to lasts years BASH injury? Because I believe that we would've been the odds favorite to cut the nets had that unfortunate injury not occurred.

Is there a way to calculate 2014 pre and post BASH injury Adj O and D?
If you search posts at TOS around the date of Bash's injury you could probably find our metrics to that point in the season. If I remember correctly we were 1st in defense and out of the top 20 in offense, but I could be totally remembering that wrong.

Bash went down on 2/1 in the loss to Cal. (man it hurt looking that up right now. remembering where and what I was doing)

AdjO/AdjD
1/29/15: 23/2
2/2/15: 35/1
End of 2014 season 3/31/15: 20/1

1/31/15: 14/4

NICE. Glad I did that exercise, really puts this season so far in perspective. GO CATS!

Next thought question: Is our AdjO really that improved from last year or is the rest of the field weaker this year? Maybe a bit of both?

Chicat · Post by **Chicat** » Sat Jan 31, 2015 6:41 pm

I think our offense is markedly better. We shouldn't forget that our best offense for stretches last year was throwing the ball at the rim and getting multiple offensive rebounds off subsequent missed tip shots. Oh those dreaded bunnies...

No such issues this year. TJ has elevated his game and can get his shot off seemingly at will, and Stanley is worlds better than NJ and AG at hitting high percentage shots.

luteformayor2 · Post by **luteformayor2** » Sat Jan 31, 2015 7:23 pm

Stanley can score at will. He is quickly becoming Gilbert Arenas circa 2001.

CalStateTempe · Post by **CalStateTempe** » Sat Jan 31, 2015 7:31 pm

luteformayor2 wrote:Stanley can score at will. He is quickly becoming Gilbert Arenas circa 2001.

This I like.

gumby · Post by **gumby** » Sat Jan 31, 2015 9:14 pm

Nobody can score at will. Nobody can "get to the rim any time they want." Nobody is unstoppable. Stan had 8 Friday. Left his will in the locker room? No. He struggled, like all players sometimes.

P.S. Arenas was up and down, too.

How about they put together consistent season-long excellence before deification?

Longhorned · Post by **Longhorned** » Sat Jan 31, 2015 10:13 pm

I could have got to the rim but I didn't want.

luteformayor2 · Post by **luteformayor2** » Sun Feb 01, 2015 1:23 pm

gumby wrote:Nobody can score at will. Nobody can "get to the rim any time they want." Nobody is unstoppable. Stan had 8 Friday. Left his will in the locker room? No. He struggled, like all players sometimes.

P.S. Arenas was up and down, too.

How about they put together consistent season-long excellence before deification?

Yeah, I would say his numbers reflect consistent season-long excellence exactly how it is defined. 15 and 8 with his fg% is pretty fucking impressive for a freshman on a top tier team.

gumby · Post by **gumby** » Sun Feb 01, 2015 9:18 pm

Longhorned wrote:I could have got to the rim but I didn't want.

I could score at Will if it were Will Robinson.

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