2014-15 NBA Trade Deadline Thread

[Katzenfreund]

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[Chicat]

Ouch

[Reydituto]

Entertaining read from Grantland on yesterday's deadline action, an in-real-time e-mail exchange with Simmons & Co.

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/light ... f-happens/

Andrew Sharp: Pat Riley is what Illuminati power really looks like. Pat Riley is Tywin Lannister. Pat Riley is Kevin Spacey at the end of Usual Suspects and we’re all about to drop the coffee cup. Pat Riley is really going to steal Goran Dragic, isn’t he?

[JMarkJohns]

I wouldn't call two limited lottery protection 1sts, both of which become 100% unprotected a steal, considering it could be for a 2-month, non-playoff rental since Dragic already let his people leak how despite now being in Miami, he still views LA as ideal for him overall.

I already took Sharp to task for his short-cited, little-picture, almost half-ass assessment of the trade on Twitter, where he completely undervalues the Micheal Redd-like skill set that Knight brings as 23-yo rising star, while simultaneously overvaluing the Lakers 1st, which isn't going to Phiily without a miracle this year, and, depending on the Dragic/Love Lakers offseason, could either become a late lottory to mid-1st next year, or likely still be owned by Lakers as a top-3 if they swing and miss on stars, because they sure as hell are not using their plethora of CAP on non-stars only to relinquish a top-10 pick.

Yes, short-term the deadline looks bad, but Suns effectively got:

Two potential lottery picks for a player who was leaving in offseason
A 1st rounder from a team who could lose Kevin Love in offseason and CAP for a cancer
A near All-Star, stud shooting youngster for a possible lottery pick and two role players

They still have so many young prospects a top-5 Euro prospect will likely remain stashed, and I suspect one of Bullock or Goodwin is packaged with the Suns 1st to move up in the draft.

To say the Suns lost is absurdly wrong. To say they won is hyperbole, but they made solid B to A moves out of an iffy to F situation. McDonough was basically tasked with a 48-hour all-nighter to pass a Finals, and aced it, in my book.

Yes, it's uncertain, but how is paying Dragic 5/100 uncertain?

[Reydituto]

I wouldn't call two limited lottery protection 1sts, both of which become 100% unprotected a steal, considering it could be for a 2-month, non-playoff rental since Dragic already let his people leak how despite now being in Miami, he still views LA as ideal for him overall.

I already took Sharp to task for his short-cited, little-picture, almost half-ass assessment of the trade on Twitter, where he completely undervalues the Micheal Redd-like skill set that Knight brings as 23-yo rising star, while simultaneously overvaluing the Lakers 1st, which isn't going to Phiily without a miracle this year, and, depending on the Dragic/Love Lakers offseason, could either become a late lottory to mid-1st next year, or likely still be owned by Lakers as a top-3 if they swing and miss on stars, because they sure as hell are not using their plethora of CAP on non-stars only to relinquish a top-10 pick.

Yes, short-term the deadline looks bad, but Suns effectively got:

Two potential lottery picks for a player who was leaving in offseason
A 1st rounder from a team who could lose Kevin Love in offseason and CAP for a cancer
A near All-Star, stud shooting youngster for a possible lottery pick and two role players

They still have so many young prospects a top-5 Euro prospect will likely remain stashed, and I suspect one of Bullock or Goodwin is packaged with the Suns 1st to move up in the draft.

To say the Suns lost is absurdly wrong. To say they won is hyperbole, but they made solid B to A moves out of an iffy to F situation. McDonough was basically tasked with a 48-hour all-nighter to pass a Finals, and aced it, in my book.

Yes, it's uncertain, but how is paying Dragic 5/100 uncertain?

I agree with your analysis, particularly on McDonough, and particularly on your analysis of trading away the Lakers pick (I didn't see the need to go apeshit over trading it away, to be sure). That's why I've been saying they broke even all things considered, especially the terrible position Dragic put them in after the terrible position the Suns put themselves in with IT.

I just thought, when looking for something to quote from the article, the quote about Pat Riley was funny.

One question though: It appears from reading your posts in the last 24 hrs that you're not as big a fan of Miami & their potential Dragic-Wade-Deng-Bosh-Whiteside lineup, short or long-term. If my perception is correct, why not? Is it based largely on the ideas that a.) Miami doesn't re-sign Dragic and b.) Wade & Bosh's health going forward? My thinking, if that starting 5 actually gets to play together, that's not a lottery team, that's a playoff contender.

While I'm at it, is Danny Granger something the Suns renowned training staff could improve into a viable asset/player, or is he just done?

[Reydituto]

At least the Suns don't have Billy King as their GM ...

[JMarkJohns]

I thought highly of the Heat in the preseason. If healthy, they are very good. They aren't. All four of their big four players have missed chucks of the season the last season and a half, two with career threatening illnesses, and while I think the Heat are the favorites to retain Dragic, it's like a 51% Heat, 40% LA and 9% elsewhere. We'll see if the guaranteed 20 and a fifth year is enough to sway Dragic, but I think he likes the Hollywood treatment which LA will give him, and they have draft picks beyond the one, have a desperate need for a PG, and have CAP flexibility over the long haul.

I actually think both he and Love sign in LA, as they are an incredible PicNRoll tandem, and both covet being a featured part of the offense. They complement each other well and LA is the place it can happen.

I think Love goes for sign-n-trade, with Randle heading to Cavs, and Dragic signs as a FA. Add healthy-ish Kobe and a top-5 pick this year (Stanley) and they are damn good damn fast.

[JMarkJohns]

Granger is done.

Pacers should have listened to me and traded he and Lance to Orlando before last season for Afflalo and Nelson.

[Reydituto]

... while I think the Heat are the favorites to retain Dragic, it's like a 51% Heat, 40% LA and 9% elsewhere. We'll see if the guaranteed 20 and a fifth year is enough to sway Dragic, but I think he likes the Hollywood treatment which LA will give him

Which brings us momentarily to the article I posted ...

Simmons: By the way, I keep picturing the Dragic brothers hitting South Beach dressed like Martin and Aykroyd in the famous “Wild and Crazy Guys” sketch. Can’t we Photoshop the heads of the Dragic brothers on them for a GIF with South Beach behind them? Or would a straightforward Miami Vice Photoshop make more sense?

But to address the meat of your post ...

... and they have draft picks beyond the one, have a desperate need for a PG, and have CAP flexibility over the long haul.

I actually think both he and Love sign in LA, as they are an incredible PicNRoll tandem, and both covet being a featured part of the offense. They complement each other well and LA is the place it can happen.

I think Love goes for sign-n-trade, with Randle heading to Cavs, and Dragic signs as a FA. Add healthy-ish Kobe and a top-5 pick this year (Stanley) and they are damn good damn fast.

All of which only further devalues that 2016 Lakers 1st. The team you project makes the playoffs if Kobe stays healthy.

Granger is done.

Pacers should have listened to me and traded he and Lance to Orlando before last season for Afflalo and Nelson.

That's a bummer. At least he represents cap space.

[JMarkJohns]

Not sure a Dragic/Kobe/Johnson/Love/Hill Lakers squad makes the playoffs in still-stacked West, but is a team that likely finishes with 42-45 wins, which means pick sent to Philly could be in the 12-14 range.

I'll take a Knight for Ennis/Plumlee/#13, and not think twice.


Of course, I am not sure I make that deal if for Ennis/Plumlee/#7, which there's strong potential for, still, but I just don't see LA being down for three years straight.

[Reydituto]

No-Limit Phoenix Hold ’Em: How the Suns Went All In to Build for the Future

It’s refreshing to get a reminder that in this age of technocratic team-building — of analytics, risk-reward calculations, arcane cap rules, and pegging a value on everything — crazy and unpredictable stuff can blow up all of your sophisticated planning.

Just ask the Phoenix Suns. They tried to tank last season and instead damn near made the playoffs, with a turbo-charged dual point guard system, great coaching, and fun chemistry. They tripled down on that over the summer, signing Isaiah Thomas to a killer contract as part of a push to crack the West’s top eight. They never planned to be the stars of perhaps the wildest trade deadline in league history.

“The whole purpose of it was to give all three guys rest, so that they’d have gas in the tank for a playoff run,” says Suns coach Jeff Hornacek. “That was the plan, anyway. It was surprising for Goran [Dragic] to say he wasn’t going to sign back. It forced us to make some moves.”

In one furious hour, Phoenix became the most talked-about franchise in the league — a team still stuck between contention and mediocrity, with an uncertain path forward. No one would be chattering had Phoenix stopped after the deal that sent Goran Dragic to Miami for first-round picks in 2017 and 2021. Those picks seem far away, but they represent great return for an impending free agent who demanded a trade to a group of glamour teams short on glamorous trade assets. The Heat have stars, the beach, a friendly tax code, and a history of reloading at hyper speed. It’s tempting to assume they will always be good, and that those picks will end up in the 20s.

That’s what the Lakers thought when they flipped four picks, including two first-rounders, to the Suns for Steve Nash. It’s the cavalier attitude that had Brooklyn tossing away picks and swap rights through approximately 2085 to load up on old guys and win one playoff series. The future is uncertain, and by getting two picks spaced four years apart, Phoenix maximized its chances of catching the Heat in a down cycle at least once.

The Suns might have been able to snag Luol Deng in that same trade, but they never asked about him, according to sources familiar with the talks. That’s especially revealing in connection with the whirlwind of deals that accompanied the Dragic trade: the three-team blockbuster that ended with Brandon Knight in Phoenix, and the separate deal sending Thomas to Boston for another pick.

Good insights from Z Lowe ...

[JMarkJohns]

People vastly underrate the chances the Lakers pick falls out of Top-10, maybe even lottery.

The pick isn't being transferred this year.

So, the transference scenarios are as follows:

1. Lakers utilize CAP space and sign a free agent or two like Kevin Love, Goran Dragic, Rajon Rondo, or D'Andre Jordan, coupled with Randle/Top-5 2015 1st, and the pick is late lottery or maybe out.
2. Lakers swing and miss, continue to suck, land top-3 1st.
3. Lakers continue to suck, but somehow improve just enough the to convey the pick outside the top-3 protection.
4. If #2, Lakers then clear Kobe, coupled with previous 30 million, and new increased CAP, Lakers have assets and CAP to make a run at Durant, etc, or trade for Westbrook, etc. Likely pick becomes late lottery or mid-round.
5. Lakers swing and miss a second year in a row on Free Agents, pick lands inside top-3 protection, net another top-3 pick.
6. Lakers swing and miss, continue to suck, but somehow aren't a bottom three pick, conveying the pick just outside the protection.
7. Lakers add some combination of Top-7 in 2014, Top-5 in 2015, Top-3 in 2016, Top-3 2017 and free agents and develop into mid level playoff team by time pick is unprotected, conveying a mid-round 1st.
8. Lakers, despite all the kept picks and free agent opportunities, fail to improve and pick is top-5 in 2018.

By my odds, it would seem likelier the pick is 10-20 range than top-5.

I can absolutely see a scenario where Love and Jordan or Dragic team up this offseason with Lakers selecting either Mudiay, Russell, Johnson or Cauley-Stein to add to Randle from last year.

They do that, the pick is likely 12-16 range.

Russell
Kobe
Young
Love, Randle
Jordan, Hill

Or

Dragic
Kobe
Johnson
Love, Randle
Hill

Or

Dragic
Kobe
Johnson
Randle
Jordan

All of these are realistic.

[TucsonClip]

Jordan isn't leaving the Clippers.

That said, this is part of the reason why I think it was a good move. I think the pick lands in the middle to back of the lottery. Knight makes much more sense than selecting at 7-12.