Statistical Jump

gumby · Post by **gumby** » Sun Feb 01, 2015 9:23 pm

luteformayor2 wrote:
gumby wrote:Nobody can score at will. Nobody can "get to the rim any time they want." Nobody is unstoppable. Stan had 8 Friday. Left his will in the locker room? No. He struggled, like all players sometimes.

P.S. Arenas was up and down, too.

How about they put together consistent season-long excellence before deification?
Yeah, I would say his numbers reflect consistent season-long excellence exactly how it is defined. 15 and 8 with his fg% is pretty fucking impressive for a freshman on a top tier team.

Better in January. Really picked it up five games ago. Averages don't measure consistency. He is impressive.

luteformayor2 · Post by **luteformayor2** » Mon Feb 16, 2015 4:05 pm

We are now closing in on UVA for the 2nd spot in Kenpom. We passed the Zags 2 weeks ago and managed to shed the ASU loss drop and still are getting close to the top.

Uk .9792
Uva .9639
UA .9593

If you took the Winger idea that a balanced championship caliber team needs to be top 20 in ADJo and ADJd then there are 7 teams that can win this year:

UK - 8 and 1
Uva - 17 and 2
UA - 12 and 5
Zaga - 5 and 21 (close enough) BEAT THEM
Utah - 15 and 7 BEAT THEM
Nova - 9 and 15
Kansas - 14 and 16

We have beat 2 of those teams
Kansas and UK have both beaten 1

HiCat · Post by **HiCat** » Mon Feb 16, 2015 4:27 pm

We are now closing in on UVA for the 2nd spot in Kenpom. We passed the Zags 2 weeks ago and managed to shed the ASU loss drop and still are getting close to the top.

Uk .9792
Uva .9639
UA .9593

http://kenpom.com/index.php?s=RankAdjDE
hope this is the right link

CalStateTempe · Post by **CalStateTempe** » Mon Feb 16, 2015 4:46 pm

Am I the only one who believes that UK's Adj D is suspect given the conference they play in?

luteformayor2 · Post by **luteformayor2** » Mon Feb 16, 2015 4:49 pm

CalStateTempe wrote:Am I the only one who believes that UK's Adj D is suspect given the conference they play in?

Their defense is predicated on athleticism.

UVA is strict packline with mid-range athletes but not elite.

Ours is elite athletes in a system.

I will take ours.

threenumberones · Post by **threenumberones** » Mon Feb 16, 2015 5:42 pm

CalStateTempe wrote:Am I the only one who believes that UK's Adj D is suspect given the conference they play in?

I don't know man, when they want to play D they definitely pass the eye test. And btw, the SUC is probably better than the Pac.

luteformayor2 · Post by **luteformayor2** » Sun Feb 22, 2015 6:40 am

AdjD is now #3 in nation.

Bosy Billups · Post by **Bosy Billups** » Sun Feb 22, 2015 9:32 am

luteformayor2 wrote:AdjD is now #3 in nation.

Holy crap, and Utah is 4? And our AdjO is almost the same?

This could be the game of the century!!!

UTAH should win on their home court and we can't be mad if so.

But if we win....wow, just wow.

WildcatStunner · Post by **WildcatStunner** » Sun Feb 22, 2015 10:33 pm

Through today's games there are only two teams that are in the top 20 adj o and adj d. Kentucky and Arizona. Utah, Gonzaga, Villanova, kansas, and Virginia meet one of the two criteria, but fall short right now.

Longhorned · Post by **Longhorned** » Sun Feb 22, 2015 10:37 pm

Wisconsin is moving up fast on AdjD. Still at 46, though.

WildcatStunner · Post by **WildcatStunner** » Sun Feb 22, 2015 10:42 pm

Virginia has been tumbling on offense over the last two weeks.

Frybry02 · Post by **Frybry02** » Mon Feb 23, 2015 6:17 am

WildcatStunner wrote:Virginia has been tumbling on offense over the last two weeks.

Not having Anderson has hurt them

luteformayor2 · Post by **luteformayor2** » Mon Feb 23, 2015 6:23 am

Duke and Wisconsin will not win with their horrific D. UVA has no chance with their shit offense (as of late).

Top picks: UK and UA
2nd tier: Kansas and Nova

Longhorned · Post by **Longhorned** » Mon Feb 23, 2015 7:15 am

luteformayor2 wrote:Duke and Wisconsin will not win with their horrific D. UVA has no chance with their shit offense (as of late).

Top picks: UK and UA
2nd tier: Kansas and Nova

Kansas has really come around, I agree. If there isn't a Self-implosion, they'll be rocks. Wisconsin will be just fine until they play a team that's really strong on both sides of the ball. Duke could lose at any time to some team we may never have heard of until then.

luteformayor2 · Post by **luteformayor2** » Mon Feb 23, 2015 10:00 am

Longhorned wrote:
luteformayor2 wrote:Duke and Wisconsin will not win with their horrific D. UVA has no chance with their shit offense (as of late).

Top picks: UK and UA
2nd tier: Kansas and Nova
Kansas has really come around, I agree. If there isn't a Self-implosion, they'll be rocks. Wisconsin will be just fine until they play a team that's really strong on both sides of the ball. Duke could lose at any time to some team we may never have heard of until then.

Who loses first - Duke or Gonzaga?

Olsondogg · Post by **Olsondogg** » Mon Feb 23, 2015 10:14 am

luteformayor2 wrote:
Longhorned wrote:
luteformayor2 wrote:Duke and Wisconsin will not win with their horrific D. UVA has no chance with their shit offense (as of late).

Top picks: UK and UA
2nd tier: Kansas and Nova
Kansas has really come around, I agree. If there isn't a Self-implosion, they'll be rocks. Wisconsin will be just fine until they play a team that's really strong on both sides of the ball. Duke could lose at any time to some team we may never have heard of until then.
Who loses first - Duke or Gonzaga?

Depends on seedings---of everyone.

On a side note, I still never understand people who go "This team will make the final 4" without seeing their path. I mean, some parts of brackets are brutal and some aren't. Remember Arizona in the Russ Pennell year? Remember when we made the Sweet 16 and who we played to get there, and who we played when we got there?

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Mon Feb 23, 2015 10:20 am

Longhorned wrote:
luteformayor2 wrote:Duke and Wisconsin will not win with their horrific D. UVA has no chance with their shit offense (as of late).

Top picks: UK and UA
2nd tier: Kansas and Nova
Kansas has really come around, I agree. If there isn't a Self-implosion, they'll be rocks. Wisconsin will be just fine until they play a team that's really strong on both sides of the ball. Duke could lose at any time to some team we may never have heard of until then.

Kansas has the same developmental path every single year. Shaky start followed by the inevitable Big 12 conference title.

I have more faith in Duke this year. I know that is also a yearly theme, but unless Okafor's injury dogs him, this is their most talented lineup in a long time.

CalStateTempe · Post by **CalStateTempe** » Mon Feb 23, 2015 10:41 am

Duke can't play D. They will have a typical Tourney, out prior to the EE.

RiseAndFire · Post by **RiseAndFire** » Mon Feb 23, 2015 10:49 am

Bosy Billups wrote:
luteformayor2 wrote:AdjD is now #3 in nation.
Holy crap, and Utah is 4? And our AdjO is almost the same?

This could be the game of the century!!!

UTAH should win on their home court and we can't be mad if so.

But if we win....wow, just wow.

If they try the same m2m defense like the first time, it will be another cakewalk. As UCLA showed, even a mediocre/bad squad can hold UA scoreless for long stretches with a simple zone D that packs the paint and forces RHJ, TJ and SJ to be 3pt shooters. Allow those three to get into the paint and you can turn the lights out, game over.

I think we're going to see more of the same from UU. Zona by 12

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Mon Feb 23, 2015 10:53 am

Spaceman Spiff wrote:
Longhorned wrote:
luteformayor2 wrote:
I have more faith in Duke this year. I know that is also a yearly theme, but unless Okafor's injury dogs him, this is their most talented lineup in a long time.

Yep. They have the nation's best player not named Kaminsky. Duke can reach the FF.

CalStateTempe · Post by **CalStateTempe** » Mon Feb 23, 2015 11:23 am

Beachcat97 wrote:
Spaceman Spiff wrote:
Longhorned wrote:
luteformayor2 wrote:
I have more faith in Duke this year. I know that is also a yearly theme, but unless Okafor's injury dogs him, this is their most talented lineup in a long time.
Yep. They have the nation's best player not named Kaminsky. Duke can reach the FF.

You don't watch as many Duke games as do.

I wouldn't put money on them

rgdeuce · Post by **rgdeuce** » Mon Feb 23, 2015 11:28 am

As noted above (or in the other thread), it depends on matchups with Duke. If a team has some big bodies and length and can slow down Okafor with doubles or some other scheme, Duke is going to have to rely on outside shooting. Defensively, they can not compensate for an off shooting night that will come in the tournament.

catgrad97 · Post by **catgrad97** » Mon Feb 23, 2015 1:32 pm

I'd take Duke, Virginia, Wisky and Zag in Arizona's bracket all week long.

Beachcat97 · Post by **Beachcat97** » Mon Feb 23, 2015 4:26 pm

catgrad97 wrote:I'd take Duke, Virginia, Wisky and Zag in Arizona's bracket all week long.

Don't want any part of Okafor or Kaminsky. I expect both of those guys to reach the FF.

luteformayor2 · Post by **luteformayor2** » Mon Feb 23, 2015 8:33 pm

Neither of those guys are the type of A+ players who single handedly guide teams to the FF.

Generally it is guards and wings who can do this, not centers. Stanley Johnson has a better chance of leading us to the final four then Kaminsky or Okafor.

OsideCat · Post by **OsideCat** » Mon Feb 23, 2015 10:18 pm

luteformayor2 wrote:Neither of those guys are the type of A+ players who single handedly guide teams to the FF.

Generally it is guards and wings who can do this, not centers. Stanley Johnson has a better chance of leading us to the final four then Kaminsky or Okafor.

Ummm Kaminsky dropping 27 against us in the elite 8 doesn't count for leading his team to a final 4?

rgdeuce · Post by **rgdeuce** » Tue Feb 24, 2015 8:02 am

luteformayor2 wrote:Neither of those guys are the type of A+ players who single handedly guide teams to the FF.

Generally it is guards and wings who can do this, not centers. Stanley Johnson has a better chance of leading us to the final four then Kaminsky or Okafor.

LOL, where were u last year?

Olsondogg · Post by **Olsondogg** » Tue Feb 24, 2015 8:44 am

There is no one common formula to get to a Final 4. Typically it takes being good at the right times.

If there was a formula to get there, then teams would be doing it over and over. The only formula is to get good players to play together well and to do well for 4-6 games.

luteformayor2 · Post by **luteformayor2** » Wed Feb 25, 2015 10:42 am

#2 in Kenpom!!!!

Virginia win tonight will put us back at 3, but if we win out this week we will have a very solid grasp on #2. It is crazy how focused the committee is on RPI. We are looking real nice right now.

Let's win out and jump to #1 in the west! BYU beating the Zags would be awfully helpful.

Spaceman Spiff · Post by **Spaceman Spiff** » Wed Feb 25, 2015 10:50 am

Olsondogg wrote:There is no one common formula to get to a Final 4. Typically it takes being good at the right times.

If there was a formula to get there, then teams would be doing it over and over. The only formula is to get good players to play together well and to do well for 4-6 games.

I disagree somewhat. Winning your first four tourney games by any means is a pretty good formula unless you are John Calipari.

UAGreg · Post by **UAGreg** » Wed Feb 25, 2015 10:54 am

luteformayor2 wrote:#2 in Kenpom!!!!

Virginia win tonight will put us back at 3, but if we win out this week we will have a very solid grasp on #2. It is crazy how focused the committee is on RPI. We are looking real nice right now.

Let's win out and jump to #1 in the west! BYU beating the Zags would be awfully helpful.

I'm seeing us as 3.

Merkin · Post by **Merkin** » Wed Feb 25, 2015 11:02 am

UAGreg wrote:
luteformayor2 wrote:#2 in Kenpom!!!!

Virginia win tonight will put us back at 3, but if we win out this week we will have a very solid grasp on #2. It is crazy how focused the committee is on RPI. We are looking real nice right now.

Let's win out and jump to #1 in the west! BYU beating the Zags would be awfully helpful.
I'm seeing us as 3.

UAEebs86 · Post by **UAEebs86** » Wed Feb 25, 2015 11:08 am

luteformayor2 wrote:#2 in Kenpom!!!!

Virginia win tonight will put us back at 3, but if we win out this week we will have a very solid grasp on #2. It is crazy how focused the committee is on RPI. We are looking real nice right now.

Jerry Palm had an article where he said RPI is the only metric they consider.

Chicat · Post by **Chicat** » Wed Feb 25, 2015 11:17 am

UAEebs86 wrote:
luteformayor2 wrote:#2 in Kenpom!!!!

Virginia win tonight will put us back at 3, but if we win out this week we will have a very solid grasp on #2. It is crazy how focused the committee is on RPI. We are looking real nice right now.
Jerry Palm had an article where he said RPI is the only metric they consider.

In Grantland's article it was said that individual members could bring in and consider any metric they want.

Bear Down Vegas · Post by **Bear Down Vegas** » Wed Feb 25, 2015 11:21 am

Chicat wrote:
UAEebs86 wrote:
Jerry Palm had an article where he said RPI is the only metric they consider.
In Grantland's article it was said that individual members could bring in and consider any metric they want.

Well at least they cleared that up for us.

luteformayor2 · Post by **luteformayor2** » Fri Feb 27, 2015 6:38 am

Pyth .9629

First time this year in the .96 threshold. A win over Utah could very well vault us above UVA (.9662)

Current teams top 20 in Adj and Adjo:

UK
UA
Zaga
Utah

We beat...a few...

Olsondogg · Post by **Olsondogg** » Sat Feb 28, 2015 11:05 pm

#2 in KenPom.

EVCat · Post by **EVCat** » Sat Feb 28, 2015 11:14 pm

in late, but I would take Gonzaga to last longer than Dook this year. I think Dook is a Sweet 16 upset waiting to happen and this Gonzaga team is finally strong enough at all 5 positions to be a real beast. They will eventually run into a team that goes lights out (BYU tonight) or is just too physical for them (UK, UA, Virginia) that will end their season. But I gained a lot of respect for this year's Gonzaga team when they played us at McKale. They didn't just answer scoring with scoring...they answered with stops as well. Their physical presence is just much more notable this year than in year's past, when they really were a mid major playing good mid major ball. They are a legit team this year, though they have never been a legit 1 seed. They belong in the 2-3 world.

And Kaminsky flat out led UW past us and into the Final Four last year...and damn near got the comeback in the national semis...because he can go inside and out. He is such a tough matchup when he is hitting because he is a stretch post player who doesn't just play token post, but can really seal and go to town on the block and at the arc. You need a 6'9" guy with 7'1" wingspan, a healthy foot and some athleticism to guard him when he starts taking his game to the perimeter. Something we were missing

luteformayor2 · Post by **luteformayor2** » Sun Mar 01, 2015 6:20 am

#2 in KenPom

Once again we are the only team (including Kentucky) who is consistently gaining steam in the team analytics.

UVA's offense is plummeting. Duke and Wisconsin's defense are non-existent.

Kentucky is who I want in April. That game needs to happen.

84Cat · Post by **84Cat** » Sun Mar 01, 2015 9:31 am

PieceOfMeat · Post by **PieceOfMeat** » Sun Mar 01, 2015 10:15 am

looks like there's an espn insider article regarding our offense. I don't have insider, so can't read the entire thing, but here's the link to the article and first few paragraphs

http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-college ... basketball

Puerco · Post by **Puerco** » Mon Mar 23, 2015 9:17 am

We're up to #7 offense...

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