Wisconsin and the West

[Merkin]

I feel good ( I knew that I would). Wisky is the 3rd or 4th lowest #1, we are the 1st or 2nd highest second. No reason we shouldn't beat all of the lower seeds, and no reason that we shouldn't beat Wisky, if our guys are on top of things (I think they will be). And I don't think Kaminsky gets off on us like last year. We are playing our best ball of the season, and Bash has really gotten back into form the last few games.

I feel good!

Kaminsky is going to get his. Let Tarc single cover him the best he can, and even Ristic and Korcheck have fouls to give. Cover the other 4 guys and UA is going to win this game.

Assuming of course they don't lose to Texas Southern.

[HibachiZero]

If BYU meets up with Baylor, they will shred their zone.

[Chicat]

Kaminsky is going to get his. Let Tarc single cover him the best he can, and even Ristic and Korcheck have fouls to give. Cover the other 4 guys and UA is going to win this game.

Kind of like how Notre Dame dealt with Duke and Okafor.

My only concern is that if you let him get hot he can carry that team and they seem to feed off his energy. If he's scored a bunch of points in a row late it might be hard to put that genie back in the bottle when you need stops.

[Spaceman Spiff]

Kaminsky is going to get his. Let Tarc single cover him the best he can, and even Ristic and Korcheck have fouls to give. Cover the other 4 guys and UA is going to win this game.

Kind of like how Notre Dame dealt with Duke and Okafor.

My only concern is that if you let him get hot he can carry that team and they seem to feed off his energy. If he's scored a bunch of points in a row late it might be hard to put that genie back in the bottle when you need stops.

We just need to rub him the right way.

[Daryl Zero]

Kaminsky is going to get his. Let Tarc single cover him the best he can, and even Ristic and Korcheck have fouls to give. Cover the other 4 guys and UA is going to win this game.

Kind of like how Notre Dame dealt with Duke and Okafor.

My only concern is that if you let him get hot he can carry that team and they seem to feed off his energy. If he's scored a bunch of points in a row late it might be hard to put that genie back in the bottle when you need stops.

Difference between Okafor and Kaminsky is that Kaminsky can step out and hit jumpers including 3s and Kaleb can't cover him on the outside. I'd do a mini-zone where Rondae or Bash covers him if he steps out and Kaleb gets him inside. Otherwise, stick to your man. Don't let the other guys get hot.

[ASUHATER!]

In the 4-5 Wisconsin games I've seen this year the only thing I see is Wisconsin just draining shot after shot from anywhere on the court like it's the nba skills challenge and going on huge runs. Will take our best defensive effort of the year to stop those legions of Germanic/Nordic pale white dudes they have.

[gumby]

Fun fact: We shoot it better from three than Wisconsin. Just not as often. They average 35.7%. Opponents, 36%. We shoot it better overall, too, though it's close. We score five more points per game.

Also, there appears to be some concession that Kaminsky will get 25 or more, when he averages 18. Because Purdue, Penn State, Michigan, etc., are better equipped to stop him?

Why is the entire focus on Wisconsin with the ball? We held them below their average last year, even when you tack on overtime. Even with Kaminsky having an atypical game.

[psiclist23]

I'll give you Kaminsky over Tark, but the other 4? With BA finally turning into the guy we knew was there? RHJ? Stanley? Are you kidding me. and maybe most importantly, our point guard. I'm not saying it will be easy. Essentially, our other 4 have to beat their other 4 by more than their 1 beats our 1.

[Puerco]

Fun fact: We shoot it better from three than Wisconsin. Just not as often. They average 35.7%. Opponents, 36%. We shoot it better overall, too, though it's close. We score five more points per game.

Also, there appears to be some concession that Kaminsky will get 25 or more, when he averages 18. Because Purdue, Penn State, Michigan, etc., are better equipped to stop him?

Why is the entire focus on Wisconsin with the ball? We held them below their average last year, even when you tack on overtime. Even with Kaminsky having an atypical game.

Screw the facts, it's the eye test that matters now!

[CalStateTempe]

I wouldn't want to be Wisconsin fan thinking about the matchup with arizona.

Miller has a great record in revenge games

[Chicat]

I'm trying to remember who guarded Kaminsky last year. Was it Aaron or Zeus? This year I say put Rondae on him and see if he's able to shoot over the top of him. I'm thinking that wingspan will give him fits.

[Merkin]

I'm trying to remember who guarded Kaminsky last year. Was it Aaron or Zeus? This year I say put Rondae on him and see if he's able to shoot over the top of him. I'm thinking that wingspan will give him fits.

Both did and failed.

[threenumberones]

I'm trying to remember who guarded Kaminsky last year. Was it Aaron or Zeus? This year I say put Rondae on him and see if he's able to shoot over the top of him. I'm thinking that wingspan will give him fits.

Yea, I want Miller to rotate SJ, RHJ and Zeus on him all game. Even possession to possession potentially. Play deny post with sagging help when the little guys are on him, and traditional post D when they aren't. No doubles though. On the perimeter is where he's scary though...not much we can do about that high screen - he can get a three just about whenever he wants. Hoping the smaller and quicker defender can stay in his face a bit better.

[azgreg]

I guess we'll just have to run a box and 5 on Frank the Tank then.

[dcZONAfan]

I'm trying to remember who guarded Kaminsky last year. Was it Aaron or Zeus? This year I say put Rondae on him and see if he's able to shoot over the top of him. I'm thinking that wingspan will give him fits.

Yea, I want Miller to rotate SJ, RHJ and Zeus on him all game. Even possession to possession potentially. Play deny post with sagging help when the little guys are on him, and traditional post D when they aren't. No doubles though. On the perimeter is where he's scary though...not much we can do about that high screen - he can get a three just about whenever he wants. Hoping the smaller and quicker defender can stay in his face a bit better.

the question I have is how our "hedge the ball screen" defense works with a pick and pop big man? I'm trying to envision it. If we have someone else rotate over to defend the big man at the top of the key Kaminsky is a great passer who would undoubtedly find the open man. With Koenig running the point this is even more dangerous because he is twice the player (and especially twice the shooter) as Jackson. That's the only thing I'm concerned with, besides that bitch Nigel Hayes hooking his way to easy low post buckets like he did 10 times in last year's game. We can stop everything else they do

[Katzenfreund]

.

[azgreg]

They've got no shot now.

[Merkin]

SI cover jinx > BDW jinx!


10 hottest teams in the tourney. Number 1 being....


http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nc ... 4c5ef5dc86

[catgrad97]

This thread is one giant jinx.

Exactly. This team, as good as it is, has to be good enough to win three other NCAA games first--including against the nation's best zone and a 5 seed masquerading as a 10.

Enjoy the ride, folks. Don't look ahead until we're there.

[Daryl Zero]

I'm trying to remember who guarded Kaminsky last year. Was it Aaron or Zeus? This year I say put Rondae on him and see if he's able to shoot over the top of him. I'm thinking that wingspan will give him fits.

It was Zeus for most of the game. Aaron did more later in the game and had some small success. Kaminsky was just on fire from inside and outside and passed well. Maybe his best game ever.

[azgreg]

[97cats]

I'm trying to remember who guarded Kaminsky last year. Was it Aaron or Zeus? This year I say put Rondae on him and see if he's able to shoot over the top of him. I'm thinking that wingspan will give him fits.

It was Zeus for most of the game. Aaron did more later in the game and had some small success. Kaminsky was just on fire from inside and outside and passed well. Maybe his best game ever.

correct, Gordon did a fine job Coach Miler just went to him too late -- in fact, if you ask Coach Miller he will still say thats one of the bigger mistakes (how he prepared, scouted, strategized and then failed to in game adjust) to the red Kaminsky in his career.

[gumby]

I just hope we get the ball, too.

UW was 24-61, 39.3 percent. From three, 6-17, 35.3 percent. Kaminsky had three treys. Rest of team was 3-12. Kaminsky was 11-20. Rest of team was 13-41. They were 10-12 from the line. Kaminsky had one assist. Nigel Hayes was 2-8. Kaminsky had 11 rebounds. Gordon had 18.

Wisconsin scored 54 points in regulation. That's shut-down defense. I would take that again in a heartbeat. But the perception is that we struggled to stop them.

The problem was our offense (or, if you prefer, their defense).

Arizona was 23-58, 39.7 percent overall and 5-12, 41.7 percent on three. Badgers had one more three on five more attempts. FTs: 12-17, and I believe Gordon and Johnson missed front ends down the stretch. We had seven turnovers. They had eight. We had 39 boards. They had 38. They had three steals. We had two.

It was a tight, defensive struggle. Are Badger fans going on and on about how to stop Arizona? The perception of that game doesn't match reality.

It's the offense, stupid!

(don't mean that literally).

http://scores.espn.go.com/ncb/boxscore?gameId=400549675

[catgrad97]

Yeah, if you insist on fixating on how to beat Wisconsin, I'd start with making your free throws before anything else.

Nick Johnson was an empty trip to the line away, in that regional final, from Wildcat immortality. Better shooters 1-6 this season, and the Cats need to show that from the line the next two weeks.

Rondae and Kaleb could've closed out UCLA earlier from the line too, and it still concerns me they didn't. I almost feel better about putting Ashley on the strife to hit two with the game on the line, and he was the most inconsistent FT shooter of our top six before the tournament.

Lock down in the pack line and make 'em pay at the free throw line.

That'll do.

[gumby]

FTs creep me out, too (two years running).

Last bucket of the season was by Jordin Mayes.

[Frybry02]

I will worry about Wisconsin when the time comes. One game at a time.

Looking ahead Wisconsin's side, UNC could give them trouble. Matter in fact I am picking that upset on my bracket.

[Longhorned]

I'm trying to remember who guarded Kaminsky last year. Was it Aaron or Zeus? This year I say put Rondae on him and see if he's able to shoot over the top of him. I'm thinking that wingspan will give him fits.

It was Zeus for most of the game. Aaron did more later in the game and had some small success. Kaminsky was just on fire from inside and outside and passed well. Maybe his best game ever.

correct, Gordon did a fine job Coach Miler just went to him too late -- in fact, if you ask Coach Miller he will still say thats one of the bigger mistakes (how he prepared, scouted, strategized and then failed to in game adjust) to the red Kaminsky in his career.

How does Miller adjust without Gordon?

[catgrad97]

UNC is incredibly streaky and lazy defensively, with undisciplined shooters everywhere. I don't fear the Heels.

FTs creep me out, too (two years running).

Last bucket of the season was by Jordin Mayes.

I love all Wildcats who graduate, but we have far superior guard reserves this season, even if Pitts is a bit out of sync.

Put TJ, Stanley, York or even Pitts at the line and I'm confident.

But shimmying out a win at crunch time makes me nervous. Perhaps Zeus will have fouled out before he'll have to matter that way in a game.

[RiseAndFire]

Difference between Okafor and Kaminsky is that Kaminsky can step out and hit jumpers including 3s and Kaleb can't cover him on the outside. I'd do a mini-zone where Rondae or Bash covers him if he steps out and Kaleb gets him inside. Otherwise, stick to your man. Don't let the other guys get hot.

You said the Z word - blasphemy!! Penance is 4 laps around McKale and 64 recitations of "Nastiness is required - Honor the Process!"

[rgdeuce]

I thought Zeus and AG both struggled with Kaminsky. The difference was though, Zeus gives up three points and AG gives up two (was gettin manhandled inside). Two is better than three.

[ZONACAT]

I thought Zeus and AG both struggled with Kaminsky. The difference was though, Zeus gives up three points and AG gives up two (was gettin manhandled inside). Two is better than three.

And the offensive rebounding, Kaminsky ate Tarc up on the glass, pretty sure Tarc was a -11 for the game. I had a big thread about it on TOS after the game, he was dreadful. With AG at the five, and RHJ at the four, we were killing em.

[Olsondogg]

It is so pointless to worry about Wisconsin.

[Longhorned]

I just re-watched the Elite Eight Game from last year. Some observations:

- TJ is a different player now than he was last season. In addition, it was a very weak performance by TJ in that game in particular.

- Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is Wisconsin's worst nightmare

- Sean Miller indeed took Tarc out of the game with several minutes to go in the second half. Gordon took over and did really well, as did the players who switched on Kaminsky (RHJ and even NJ). Unbelievable as it is to say, Miller probably doesn't go with Tarc against Wisconsin. It's not a match-up where he's useful. The shame in that game was that Arizona's offense had so many problems that Tarc was an asset on the offensive end, but too big a liability on defense. Bizarre.

- Arizona lost that game because TJ was ice cold, free throws were abysmal, and most of all, Gordon couldn't put the ball in the bucket all game long. At all. Not even uncontested lay ins. It was a disaster.

- Nick Johnson was the man. Stanley is going to have to play at that level on both ends.

- Mayes played a surprisingly big role in that game. That's what you get for losing Ashley.

- York was useless.

- Arizona's most effective lineup was TJ, Nick, Mayes, RHJ, and Gordon.

A lot of things went wrong that don't add up to Wisconsin's defense. Wisconsin isn't about defense. Maybe some years ago, but not last year, and not this year.

Arizona isn't losing to Wisconsin again. Big role for Tarc or otherwise.

[thenewazcats]

I agree. Wisconsin isn't a great defensive team. Last year was about our offensive ineptitude. We held them to 39.3 FG% and 64 points in 45 minutes. Our 39.7 FG% wasn't great, but not unsurprising, either. We masked our FG% all year with a stellar offensive rebounding rate, which turned into lots of high percentage second-chance opportunities that we converted at a high rate. Wisconsin's height and length diminished that strength. It will still be a factor if we play them this year, but not to the same extent as last. We are a good offensive rebounding team but dont rely on it as heavily to manufacture points.

This is the best defensive rebounding team of the last 18 years. Hell, it may be the best ever. I only found data back to 1998. And the 8th-best defensive team of the Kenpom era. We force teams into really tough shots, and we limit them to very few second chance opportunities. We have lots of room for error, even against a great offensive team like Wisconsin.

[salim'sheadband]

Posted on TOS:

Don't love the Wisconsin matchup. Would have preferred Villanova. But I'm leery of the school of thought that we would have been better off with Duke. In a vacuum, I'll take my chances with Miller's revenge match against Wisconsin than trying to beat the best coach of all time three straight times, especially when said coach has arguably three of the five best players on the court at any given time.

The B1G doesn't have a team with an AdjD above 30. Yet Wisconsin only scored 80 or more in regulation 4 times in 21 total games (Penn St., Northwestern, Iowa, Indiana). They still play slow as molasses. They're not going to get a ton of separation between us and them at any point in the game. They're not going to get second-chance points - especially against us. They're the third-worst team for getting out in transition, and we're top-20 in preventing teams from getting out in transition. And they don't turn you over. They don't get any of those easy baskets. Basically, they don't make mistakes and they don't force you to make any either.

And they're still the best offense in the country. Take from that what you will.

[Chicat]

They're the most efficient offense, but they're 65th in scoring. I encourage them to slow it down all they want, because if they aren't getting offensive rebounds then I think Arizona is going to get out to a lead that I'm not sure the Badgers have the firepower to come back from.

[Puerco]

They're the most efficient offense, but they're 65th in scoring. I encourage them to slow it down all they want, because if they aren't getting offensive rebounds then I think Arizona is going to get out to a lead that I'm not sure the Badgers have the firepower to come back from.

You reading minds today?

[Chicat]

They're the most efficient offense, but they're 65th in scoring. I encourage them to slow it down all they want, because if they aren't getting offensive rebounds then I think Arizona is going to get out to a lead that I'm not sure the Badgers have the firepower to come back from.

You reading minds today?

Only the juicy parts.

[Longhorned]

I only watched the whole game entirely focused on Kaminsky. Kaminsky drives around a post player like Tarc in isolation and gets enough space for a reverse layup if the defense doesn't collapse, in which case he dishes to an open and set teammate on the perimeter. And he gets the ball in the high post, passes to the wing and rolls to the perimeter and sets quickly to receive and shoot a 3-pointer. Against a smaller, more athletic lineup, he has more difficulty getting the initial pass and probably the second, and he has less ability to take a quicker defender in isolation. Once he really gets going, Tarc can't guard Kaminsky in the block one-on-one, because he nails turnaround jumpers with virtually no space. I don't know how I feel about this because of other defensive assignments, but on the few possessions RHJ guarded Kaminsky, Kaminsky was rendered useless by the havoc, quickness, and length.

The other thing that doesn't get noticed is that Kaminsky can't guard Tarc one-on-one. Tarc overpowers him, and given just enough space, shoots short midrange jumpers right over him. The difficulty in the first game, though, was that Kaminsky was able to find more ways of scoring on Tarc. When Tarc got benched and Gordon got the assignment, Arizona lost its ability to score in the paint. Gordon's main contribution for the game was an uncharacterstic 3-pointer during overtime, but he couldn't score down low or (obviously) at midrange in positions that Ashley would eat Wisconsin alive. I think this may be why Miller put Tarc back into the game midway through overtime.

They're the most efficient offense, but they're 65th in scoring. I encourage them to slow it down all they want, because if they aren't getting offensive rebounds then I think Arizona is going to get out to a lead that I'm not sure the Badgers have the firepower to come back from.

I agree, though they certainly do have the firepower if the defense allows players 1-6 to set up behind the arc. I know the percentages don't reflect that, but they shoot really well when playing from behind. Stanley isn't the same perimeter defender he was a month ago. He knows exactly what to do now. As for rebounds, the theory is that Tarc creates rebounding opportunities for others, even if he isn't grabbing them himself. If his minutes are limited, that possibility comes into play, but I'm not overly concerned with that. Arizona is an elite defensive rebounding team, period.

[gumby]

Some great posts. Much more to this than Frank The Tank. Damn, we should've won that game.

[Chicat]

Some great posts. Much more to this than Frank The Tank. Damn, we should've won that game.

If Aaron Gordon doesn't go 1 for 30,000 on bunnies, we do...

[Longhorned]

Watching so many zone defenses against Arizona, I had forgotten how deadly RHJ is against Wisconsin's man-to-man. He was constantly in the paint, and constantly scoring underneath. And he was there for every offensive rebound.* Even Mayes was in position for put-backs. Gordon was living in the paint, but just couldn't put the ball anywhere but the back or front of the rim. The degree of difficulty separating RHJ's makes from Gordon's easy misses was astonishing. Watching RHJ against zone defenses, we tend to say he's "out of control", whereas there are few players who can match RHJ's control in scoring position around the rim.

Wisconsin looked like a 2-seed fighting uphill against a 1-seed, and was able to stay in the game because Arizona took too long to address Kaminsky, and because only three players on Arizona were able to convert in the good scoring position that found themselves in constantly. Those three Arizona players who could score on good opportunities were NJ, RHJ, and Tarc.

The basketball gods can't be so cruel as to let UNC take out Wisconsin before Arizona gets another shot at them, can they?

---
*Including the put-back on NJ's supposed charge. And it was RHJ who caused that Wisconsin turnover on the following inbounds play, which was like microcosm of his performance the entire game.

[Katzenfreund]

.

[Puerco]

Really good stuff, Longhorned. I'd forgotten about how useless Gordon was on offense in that game.

So any takers on my bet that the lineup with the lion's share of minutes against Wisconsin would be TJ, Gabe, SJ, RHJ and Bash?

[Puerco]

I still remember last year after the FIFA World Cup group stage, when Brazilian fans looked four games ahead to their final against Argentina. Man, what a game that was!

Alright, alright. So, Texas Southern anyone?

[gumby]

So how do jinxes work if both fan bases look ahead? Does the Jinx Committee use the eye test?

[gumby]

I still remember last year after the FIFA World Cup group stage, when Brazilian fans looked four games ahead to their final against Argentina. Man, what a game that was!

Alright, alright. So, Texas Southern anyone?

Zero chance for us, because they're not posting ahead.

[Katzenfreund]

.

[Longhorned]

I still remember last year after the FIFA World Cup group stage, when Brazilian fans looked four games ahead to their final against Argentina. Man, what a game that was!

Why not? It didn't affect the match on the field. That's only affected by what beer you drink and pants/no pants and stuff like that.

Germany 2014 was argued by many to be the best before group play even started. If Arizona gets beat by Baylor, then every basketball-related post is meaningless anyway.

The point of looking ahead is to address our own hopes and fears.

[Spaceman Spiff]

Well, they think that we're not that good and that they'll beat us.

It's all how you play that day. Sean Miller can't get it done. Arizona's defense is amazing and they have a lot of height, but that same amazing team lost of Oregon State and UNLV on the road. UA has not lost at home, but they're not at home. It may be Pac 12 country, but it's not Tuscon.

How did UNLV win? Poor shooting, out-rebounded them, second chance points, clogging the lanes to take the charges, foul trouble, and poor FT shooting. UNLV also has good length.
How did Oregon State win? Poor shooting & turnovers.

The coaches know the recipe to get it done, but it's all dependent on how the kids play that day. No doubt Arizona is a good team, but they're not all they're hyped up to be. They're big, they're athletic, they play good defense (they held the Beavers to 34 points in the rematch), but they don't block very much.

Tell that to Michigan State and Kansas State! No one thought we could beat them two traditional basketball powers at their home court. Trust me, Arizona could never beat MSU in Lansing.

Uh, what team's board is that from? If it isn't Wisconsin, I'll have some of whatever they're smoking.

One of the great fallacies is that there's a blueprint to beat a team because someone did. Most all teams lose, and it's usually because they got outplayed in some facet of the game. If everything went peachy @ UNLV, OSU and ASU, we wouldn't have lost those games. We crushed a number of other teams with that profile.

Wisky is good enough to beat us if we aren't having an off game. No one else in our region is.