Beachcat97 wrote: Wed Dec 08, 2021 10:05 am
Spaceman Spiff wrote: Wed Dec 08, 2021 9:50 am
Beachcat97 wrote: Tue Dec 07, 2021 4:44 pm
May sound nuts, but I could see Ben playing his way into the top 5.
I doubt he goes that high just due to two factors. First, wing is less valuable than playmaker or big. This isn't his fault, there's just a glut of guys in the 6'5-6'8 range in the NBA who play the 2 or 3. It's harder to get to top 5 in Benn's position.
Second, and this is related to #1, the biggest weakness in his arsenal is playmaking for others. His assist rate just isn't particularly good and I doubt that changes. He's a finisher, not an initiator. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but the guys in his physical profile who go highest tend tp up their stock by being initiators and not just finishers.
That said, mid-late lottery is entirely reasonable, I think. Being picked in the 8-12 range means he's pretty damn good.
Agree with all points. But...the player I'm seeing him most often compared to is Anthony Edwards, who went #1. Maybe he's not quite the player AE is, but Benn is actually taller than AE and may have better defensive potential.
Benn is not Anthony Edwards.
Edwards came out of college as a much more physically gifted athlete, which is crazy given Benn's size and bounce. Edwards with the longer wingspan and greater strength (25 pounds on Benn) - but more importantly his first step and body control were clearly NBA level. And while Benn is the better shooter, Edwards was able to get to any shot he wanted as a freshman in college. His ability to start, stop, change direction, step back... again, just clearly NBA level. He could get by anybody but was also a freight train in transition. Tough combo.
Now, Edwards could get to his shot but he wasn't yet a shooter. The shot looked good but he constantly put himself into tough shots.
Benn is the more efficient shooter at this stage, but that's not what makes an NBA star currently. It's the ability to create offense - playmaking, as Spiff noted, and shot creation. Right now Benn doesn't have a deep bag. He generally needs some help in getting to his jumper and despite the recent above the rim finishing he's been less than spectacular at finishing his drives to the rim (too often getting stripped and not getting to the line at the level that you'd hope with a 29% free throw rate).
Because of Benn's lack of shot creation and passing, I don't expect him to be a lottery pick. I could certainly be wrong (I haven't really looked at the board and there's plenty of time to move up or down). He's going to get pegged as a complimentary wing, and that means late lotto or early 20's to me.
If Benn is going to move up he needs to drop the turnovers (partly due to his poor driving), show a little more shot creation, and do a better job of seeking and finishing through contact. If he's unable to do those things in the NCAA, it's tough to project with confidence that he'll be able to do them in the NBA.