Official Bracketology Thread

[Alieberman]

Oregon is now a must win for AZ… they suck

[97cats]

Oregon is now a must win for AZ… they suck

yes they suck Arizona must hold serve

[Beachcat97]

Oregon’s had a strange season. Started slow, the. began turning things around, but now their only chance at a bid is winning the Pac tourney.

They can’t seem to string together a few weeks of consistently good play.

[UAEebs86]

That's a shame.

[Chicat]

That's a shame.

It’s positively karmic.

Fuck the ducks. I hope we fucking destroy them.

[Alieberman]

Kind of love Lunardi's latest bracket

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story ... -men-field

South
1 AZ
2. Duke
3. Baylor
4 Tennessee

Bring it!

[97cats]

dont wanna say i...but looks about what i expect with Tennessee able to climb

[RondaeShimmy]

Paolo Banchero and Jabari Smith are the two absolute worst matchups with our roster.

[Alieberman]

Just wanted to post my top 16 to compare it to tomorrow's top 16 reveal:

Gonzaga
Auburn
Arizona
Kansas
-----------
Kentucky
Purdue
Duke
Texas Tech
-------------
Baylor
Villanova
Providence
Tennessee
-------------
UCLA
Wisconsin
Houston
Illinois

[Beachcat97]

Paolo Banchero and Jabari Smith are the two absolute worst matchups with our roster.

They're the worst matchups with anyone's roster. Those two will be a handful for every team they play from here on out.

[Beachcat97]

Kind of love Lunardi's latest bracket

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story ... -men-field

South
1 AZ
2. Duke
3. Baylor
4 Tennessee

Bring it!

I'm good with playing Tennessee again. We came pretty close to beating them in their own crib, and Ballo and Larsson are much improved since that game. Would prefer not to see Illinois or Villanova in our region. But whatever. I don't see a lot of obvious separation among the top 15 teams in the country or so, and that includes Gonzaga. Anything could happen with teams seeded in the 2 to 4 range. They could get hot and cut down the nets or be done the first weekend.

[97cats]

good stuff, Ari - i love your deep dive into this over the last few weeks - you clearly have looked at a ton of data and are picking up tendency - cool to watch.

Auburn at Tennessee has the ability to shake things up a bit for Arizona tomorrow.

a loss by Tennessee changes nothing.
a loss from Auburn moves Tennessee out of the top half of the bracket and into top 12 status and moves AZ to the #2 overall seed

AZ must beat the Ducks

[Beachcat97]

AZ must beat the Ducks

You guys know that Oregon is saving its best game for McKale, right? Like, they couldn't hit the broad side of a barn in Tempe, but they're going to shoot 70% from 3 tomorrow. Guaranteed.

[EastCoastCat]

AZ must beat the Ducks

You guys know that Oregon is saving its best game for McKale, right? Like, they couldn't hit the broad side of barn in Tempe, but they're going to shoot 70% from 3 tomorrow. Guaranteed.

While I can understand this sentiment (and believe I've stated the same) I'm now thinking wtf, just bring it on. Every team that plays us for the remainder of the year will be gunning for us and we should expect and be prepared for their "best stuff".

That's what happens when you are a Top 5 team.

The proverbial bullseye will be on our chest and you know what? It feels fucking good - just like the old days!

BTFD and take no prisoners.

[97cats]

boat race - Mathurin has his best game at home yet

[Alieberman]

I'd rather Oregon give us a game then roll over.

Our Best >>>>>>>> Oregon Best

[Beachcat97]

boat race - Mathurin has his best game at home yet

If he gets 25+ tomorrow, I think he'll have just about locked up Pac POY.

[TheCat]

Walton says not so fast. Be said Benn, C-lo or Zu.

[EastCoastCat]

Walton says not so fast. Be said Benn, C-lo or Zu.

I stopped reading at "Walton says..."

[97cats]

very busy day today - a lot can change (20 ranked teams playing with four games pitting teams against ranked opponents)

teams left with legitimate chance at #1 Seed (in order):

lock

Gonzaga

drivers seat

Arizona
Auburn
Kansas

in contention

Kentucky
Purdue
Duke
Texas Tech

------cutline - cutline - cutline - cutline-------

Baylor
Villanova
Tennessee
UCLA
Wisconsin
Providence
Houston
Alabama
Southern California
Arkansas
LSU
Illinois
Texas
Ohio State

[RondaeShimmy]

I think there's a slight chance that Arizona gets the top overall ranking today IF the committee relies on advanced metrics.

Zags and Arizona are basically 1/2 if every ranking but Arizona edges them out in some



That being said I'm predicting 3 or 4 in today's first top 16 seeds ranking

[97cats]

good stuff Rondae - i dont think AZ will be #1 overall today but they are close, and much closer than many notice, and why i have them right behind Gonzaga in my chart.

if AZ wins at home today and can somehow make it back March 6th without a loss and Gonzaga has one of their often late season trip ups, AZ will be the #1 overall seed regardless of how they do in the Pac12 Tournament, as you have astutely noted before carries less weight.

still some things to play out but its remarkable how things have fallen for Arizona in almost every way this season, i have no reason to believe this isnt a possibility albeit perhaps a less likely one but im not ruling it out.

[97cats]

just for reference for ESPN Gameday crew - Duke has lost to unranked Florida State on the road and unranked Miami at home and unranked Virginia at home.

[azcat49]

In a down year for the ACC. Hey, but it’s K’s last year

[Alieberman]

just for reference for ESPN Gameday crew - Duke has lost to unranked Florida State on the road and unranked Miami at home and unranked Virginia at home.

And Arizona's 2 losses will be named today in the top 16 reveal....

[97cats]

Baylor in the top 8

[azcat49]

So on bracket preview they have us as the 1 seed in the south and the #3 overall behind the Zags and Auburn. They did say it was a razor slim margin between us and the tigers.

They had Baylor as the 5 overall and as the 2 seed in the south. They had Kentucky as the 6th overall but playing Kansas

Tennessee is the 3 seed in our bracket and the 4 seed is Providence.

[RondaeShimmy]

[97cats]

Tennessee continuing to play its way into the bottom half is a good sign

[Beachcat97]

Those 3 seeds...tough, man. Anyone calling one region "easier" than others this year is probably full of shit.

[pc in NM]

If Gonzaga is a #1 seed (in the West), I'd prefer:

1. To be seeded in the South

2. To have both Texas Tech & Kentucky in another region

Other than that, BEAR DOWN ARIZONA!!!

[RondaeShimmy]

Those 3 seeds...tough, man. Anyone calling one region "easier" than others this year is probably full of shit.

Meh, 2 and 3 seeds will cancel each other at one point before a probable Arizona matchup, only have to worry about 1 of them.

Baylor and Akinjo playing in their home state will be tough but have lost a pivotal piece for the season. Tennessee is a team Arizona could beat on a natural site like 8/10 and also just don't go down 15-2 or something. Also vs Tennessee, guys like Ballo, Pelle, Terry, Kier weren't the players they are today.

Providence has an incredible kenpom luck so far, winning games they really shouldn't.

[azcat49]

I like that draw. If I could swap Villanova as the 3 and Purdue as the 2 I would really like it

[Beachcat97]

The big name schools (Nova, Duke, Baylor) always scare me less than the up and comers (Houston, Providence, Texas Tech).

But honestly, if we're hitting on all cylinders, the whole nation should be afraid. One of these games, Kriisa is going to hit like six straight 3s. Maybe it'll happen in the tourney. You can see he has that ability to suddenly heat up.

[RondaeShimmy]

Have to keep an eye on the 5th team, 11th, and 15th team in the nation the rest of the way

Or since the committee says we were very close to being #2 overall seed over auburn, 7, 10, 14

[97cats]

lots of action today

[Alieberman]

Just wanted to post my top 16 to compare it to tomorrow's top 16 reveal:

Gonzaga Yes
Auburn Yes
Arizona Yes
Kansas Yes
-----------
Kentucky -1
Purdue -1
Duke -1
Texas Tech -2 (wrong seed)
-------------
Baylor -4 (wrong seed)
Villanova -1
Providence -4 (wrong seed)
Tennessee -1
-------------
UCLA -1
Wisconsin -1
Houston (not in 16)
Illinois -4 (wrong seed)

Texas- (missed putting in 16)

I wasn't too bad. I don't understand Providence being so low and Baylor is not the same team as they were earlier due to injuries so their high ranking is surprising

[Alieberman]

Those 3 seeds...tough, man. Anyone calling one region "easier" than others this year is probably full of shit.

I agree that the 3s are scary.

This is why a #1 seed is really important.

[Beachcat97]

Just wanted to post my top 16 to compare it to tomorrow's top 16 reveal:

Gonzaga Yes
Auburn Yes
Arizona Yes
Kansas Yes
-----------
Kentucky -1
Purdue -1
Duke -1
Texas Tech -2 (wrong seed)
-------------
Baylor -4 (wrong seed)
Villanova -1
Providence -4 (wrong seed)
Tennessee -1
-------------
UCLA -1
Wisconsin -1
Houston (not in 16)
Illinois -4 (wrong seed)

Texas- (missed putting in 16)

I wasn't too bad. I don't understand Providence being so low and Baylor is not the same team as they were earlier due to injuries so their high ranking is surprising

I think Baylor is being rewarded for some of their early-season wins: Michigan State, Nova, and @Oregon. This is how it should be. Early season should matter as much as what's happening right now. I also expect Baylor to add a win vs. Kansas next weekend.

[Alieberman]

With Kansas and Baylor currently 4 and 5.... the Kansas @ Baylor game next week looks to be for a 1 seed

[RondaeShimmy]

With Kansas and Baylor currently 4 and 5.... the Kansas @ Baylor game next week looks to be for a 1 seed

Doubt Baylor can jump up to the 1 line, especially since Kansas has a two game cushion for the big 12

[Alieberman]

With Kansas and Baylor currently 4 and 5.... the Kansas @ Baylor game next week looks to be for a 1 seed

Doubt Baylor can jump up to the 1 line, especially since Kansas has a two game cushion for the big 12

If Baylor... the #5 team in the rankings..... cannot jump to the #1 line then all the #1 seeds are currently locks.

That's absurd.

[Beachcat97]

With Kansas and Baylor currently 4 and 5.... the Kansas @ Baylor game next week looks to be for a 1 seed

Doubt Baylor can jump up to the 1 line, especially since Kansas has a two game cushion for the big 12

If Baylor... the #5 team in the rankings..... cannot jump to the #1 line then all the #1 seeds are currently locks.

That's absurd.

If Baylor runs the table, including the Big 12 tourney, they'll be a #1 seed. Same is true for Kansas.

I don't expect Kentucky to run the table *and* win the SEC tourney, so I'd say Kansas and Baylor have a slight edge for a #1 right now.

I'm still not buying that Duke can be a #1, not with the ACC's weakness and with the Big 12 and SEC being so strong.

[RondaeShimmy]

Kansas already beat them by 14 earlier this year. Kansas would have to lose 1 additional game in conference to be leaped frogged by Baylor since they currently have a 2 game lead over Baylor.

I just don't see how the big 12 runner up gets it over the conference champ.

Kansas pretty much has a cake walk the rest of the way, only Texas other than Baylor and Texas is just not good enough to go the Phog and win.

(Kansas won't be penalized if they don't win the conference tournament)

[Beachcat97]

Guys, I'm watching Auburn. We want no part of Jabari Smith. He's the best player I've seen this year and will single-handedly take that team deep in the tourney.

[Alieberman]

Kansas already beat them by 14 earlier this year. Kansas would have to lose 1 additional game in conference to be leaped frogged by Baylor since they currently have a 2 game lead over Baylor.

I just don't see how the big 12 runner up gets it over the conference champ.

Kansas pretty much has a cake walk the rest of the way, only Texas other than Baylor and Texas is just not good enough to go the Phog and win.

(Kansas won't be penalized if they don't win the conference tournament)

You are giving reasons why you think Baylor's resume isn't good enough to get bumped up. (And I don't disagree with any of your resasoning)

But I am telling you that the Selection Committee... the people that actually make these decisions... have ranked Baylor as the next team to move up to a #1.

[RondaeShimmy]

Kansas already beat them by 14 earlier this year. Kansas would have to lose 1 additional game in conference to be leaped frogged by Baylor since they currently have a 2 game lead over Baylor.

I just don't see how the big 12 runner up gets it over the conference champ.

Kansas pretty much has a cake walk the rest of the way, only Texas other than Baylor and Texas is just not good enough to go the Phog and win.

(Kansas won't be penalized if they don't win the conference tournament)

You are giving reasons why you think Baylor's resume isn't good enough to get bumped up. (And I don't disagree with any of your resasoning)

But I am telling you that the Selection Committee... the people that actually make these decisions... have ranked Baylor as the next team to move up to a #1.

But they're not reactionary at all (like you're saying they'll react) to say that a Baylor win over Kansas will have them suddenly jump Kansas. Just like Kansas is over Kentucky for #1 despite Kentucky blowing them out at Kansas not that long ago

They clearly look at the whole season. The big 12 winner will likely be #1 seed and that's going to be Kansas who already beat Baylor once and a late season loss to them won't change that.

I know they're next in line at 5, but they're not going to move up over Kansas if they're not conf champs.

[RondaeShimmy]

Guys, I'm watching Auburn. We want no part of Jabari Smith. He's the best player I've seen this year and will single-handedly take that team deep in the tourney.

From like a week ago

I don't worry about seeds. I worry about matchups. Their might be some bad matchups for us and we would definitely be a bad matchup for some teams. I don't want to play a team that feasts on TO's (Auburn).

Auburn scares me. Kessler can block and can protect down low. Jabari should be #1 pick and looks like Durant, he'd pick apart Tubelis or Terry because he's either too fast or too big.

Turnovers like you said. Pair of small quick scoring guards

[Beachcat97]

Yeah, Rondae. Smith is the real deal.

[EastCoastCat]

Guys, I'm watching Auburn. We want no part of Jabari Smith. He's the best player I've seen this year and will single-handedly take that team deep in the tourney.

Watch the game a little closer…