Official Bracketology Thread

[dmjcat]

Just win baby

This.

We CANNOT lose to Utah and hold a #1 seed.

[97cats]

Arizona's resume at this point is almost bullet proof for a #1 seed when you look at where they are today (24-2) and what has transpired across the rest of the top 20 for the last three weeks and what is still yet to take place over the next two weeks to end the year.

in this analysis i do make assumptions, like assuming Arizona wont drop home games to Cal & Stanford to end the year at home. why? cause AZ is undefeated at home and is winning its Pac12 conf games by more than 14 points. yes i am assuming that and no i dont think they will lose either game. obviously if they did they wouldnt hold their seed. same for the rest of the teams in the nation and their corresponding positions on the seed line... you dont win it dont matter. seems pretty basic to me.

that leaves three games left - i do not think AZ will go 1-2 over the mountain swing. if folks want to hang their hats on possibility that AZ might drop two of the next three then be my guest. i wont. or better, losing the final homestand at McKale. if thats the position then have it.

could Arizona lose two of the next five? sure - but very unlikely. looking at the other teams in contention for a #1 seed (its small) over that same span i expect a combination of Auburn, Purdue, Kentucky, Kansas, Baylor, Duke to lose games adding to loss totals already double Arizona today. if that happens which it almost certainly will, Arizona can withstand another crap loss, which to be clear i dont think will happen, but has already happened to several of the teams listed above - unranked losses.

and even now, i am starting to believe Genius Lloyd can win em all which would be crazy.

Go Cats!!

[Chicat]

No, he did NOT say that.

You just cannot stop humming that same stupid song.

[dmjcat]

No, he did NOT say that.

You just cannot stop humming that same stupid song.

Its 97Cats song.........not mine

[RichardCranium]

Some people enjoy just being dickheads

Why are you dragging me into this?

[97cats]

teams left with legitimate chance at #1 Seed (in order) - 2.22.22

lock

Gonzaga

drivers seat

Arizona
Kansas
Auburn

in contention

Kentucky
Baylor
Purdue
Duke
Texas Tech

------cutline - cutline - cutline - cutline-------

Villanova
Illinois
UCLA
Tennessee
Wisconsin
Houston
Providence
Arkansas
Texas
Alabama
UCONN
Ohio State
Southern California

[Chicat]

Here comes dmj with a ten post argument about what “drivers seat” means.

[UAEebs86]

Baylor barely escaped in OT last night or they would probably be knocked out.

[RondaeShimmy]

Lunardi currently has in today's updated brackets....

1. Arizona

8. Seton Hall
9. Wyoming

5. Texas
4. Tennessee

3. Illinois
2. Baylor

The current Bracket Matrix consensus top seeds for Arizona the South are..

1. (2) Arizona
2. (7) Baylor
3. (10) Texas Tech
4. (14) UCLA
5. (19) Ohio State

With bracket rules, Texas Tech would be moved because two big 12 teams can't be in the same region, next up would be Illinois. UCLA with same rules would be moved for Providence.

We're likely to get either Boise St or Wyoming in the second round as 8 or 9 seed while Seton hall or Wake Forest are likely to be the other 8/9.

[dmjcat]

Arizona's resume at this point is almost bullet proof for a #1 seed when you look at where they are today (24-2) and what has transpired across the rest of the top 20 for the last three weeks and what is still yet to take place over the next two weeks to end the year.

in this analysis i do make assumptions, like assuming Arizona wont drop home games to Cal & Stanford to end the year at home. why? cause AZ is undefeated at home and is winning its Pac12 conf games by more than 14 points. yes i am assuming that and no i dont think they will lose either game. obviously if they did they wouldnt hold their seed. same for the rest of the teams in the nation and their corresponding positions on the seed line... you dont win it dont matter. seems pretty basic to me.

that leaves three games left - i do not think AZ will go 1-2 over the mountain swing. if folks want to hang their hats on possibility that AZ might drop two of the next three then be my guest. i wont. or better, losing the final homestand at McKale. if thats the position then have it.

could Arizona lose two of the next five? sure - but very unlikely. looking at the other teams in contention for a #1 seed (its small) over that same span i expect a combination of Auburn, Purdue, Kentucky, Kansas, Baylor, Duke to lose games adding to loss totals already double Arizona today. if that happens which it almost certainly will, Arizona can withstand another crap loss, which to be clear i dont think will happen, but has already happened to several of the teams listed above - unranked losses.

and even now, i am starting to believe Genius Lloyd can win em all which would be crazy.

Go Cats!!

Thanks for letting us in on what your assumptions are.

Question: You have stated that we can go 27-4 and still have a 99.9% chance at a #1 seed. Do you believe that we can lose to Utah & Colorado and still have a 99.9% chance at a #1 seed?? Thats what your post implies.

Also, your assumptions don't include anything about the P12 tournament. Should we get tripped up in 2 of the next 3 games you don't think the P12 tournament will have any impact on our seedings??? Even if we drop 2 of the next 3 and lose in the 1st rd. of the P12 tourney?

Hard to believe.

[TheCat]

PAC 12 teams are not treated the same as other conferences. Lose any game other than USC we are not a one seed.

[Beachcat97]

@dmj...basically a lot would have to go wrong over the next few weeks for us to not get a #1. We'd have to lose more games between now and Selection Sunday than we have between November at today. Is it possible? Sure. Are 97's forecasts supported by a good sample size and statistical likelihoods? Yes.

[Alieberman]

If you think that this AZ team has a chance of losing to both Utah and Colorado this week... you haven't actually been watching Arizona Basketball this year.

[Beachcat97]

If you think that this AZ team has a chance of losing to both Utah and Colorado this week... you haven't actually been watching Arizona Basketball this year.

Or you've just experienced a lot of heartbreak upsets as an AZ fan and are bracing for this near flawless season to hit a few snags.

[Olsondogg]

The average seed over all the brackets for Gonzaga is 1.03. That’s considered a lock

Arizona’s average is also 1.03

Lock them the fuck up.

[97cats]

PAC 12 teams are not treated the same as other conferences. Lose any game other than USC we are not a one seed.

100% disagree - if Gonzaga lost two more regular season games they will still be a number one seed - same with AZ

other teams will lose like Auburn, Kentucky, Kansas, Purdue, and Baylor and those teams already have double the losses of AZ & Gonzaga including losses to unranked opponents, several at home

Arizona has lost twice all season, on the road to opponents ranked 7th and 16th. Auburn lost to unranked Florida and unranked Arkansas. Duke lost to unranked Florida State & Miami and Virginia at home

Baylor lost to unranked Oklahoma Sate at home and at unranked Alabama.

Texas Tech lost to unranked Kansas State and unranked Oklahoma

Kentucky lost at unranked Notre Dame

Arizona has two losses on the year. two losses and both were on the road inside the top 16. the teams above are not done losing either and conf tournament means nothing seeds will be finished unless there is a major collapse

at some point it becomes simple math and we are almost there.

[Beachcat97]

at some point it becomes simple math and we are almost there.

Mic drop, 97! Rack him! (iykyk)

[Alieberman]

Math? No one said there would be math.....

[97cats]

of note: Kansas lost to unranked Dayton and Purdue lost at unranked Rutgers, Indiana, and Michigan by 24.

[Beachcat97]

I think there's just low-grade anxiety about the upcoming road games, 97, even if this team has earned greater confidence.

[97cats]

I think there's just low-grade anxiety about the upcoming road games, 97, even if this team has earned greater confidence.

to that i get it and understand the trepidation and anxiousness for sure - i think its the hardest roadie of the year with the Huntsman Center being the most rabid (not better or louder) fan environment in the Pac12 for its hatred and vitriol.

i have mentioned getting Utah on Thursday is a bonus for AZ - one game at a time, my man

[Alieberman]

Teams with only Quad 1 losses on resume:

Gonzaga
Arizona
Auburn
Kentucky
Texas Tech
Tennessee

[dmjcat]

@dmj...basically a lot would have to go wrong over the next few weeks for us to not get a #1. We'd have to lose more games between now and Selection Sunday than we have between November at today. Is it possible? Sure. Are 97's forecasts supported by a good sample size and statistical likelihoods? Yes.

Agree that a lot would have to go wrong, and I don't believe we will lose to Utah & Colorado.......but thats not the point. We have a poster who has predicted that we can lose to UT & CO (and presumably to an asu in the P12 tourney in the 1st round) and are still a 99.9% lock for a 1 seed. I happen to disagree.

[97cats]

and we have a poster who for three months in this very thread has been wrong about every single thing he has said and failed to come back anywhere along the way and admit that his ridiculous call-outs and positions and takes were wrong.

no, we have a poster that ignores his own wrong takes and lives to search and discover a sliver of opening to disagree for the sake of disagreement on new independent thought, never cleaning up his mess, no just hanging on the frail branch as it breaks failing to ever come back and say he was wrong.

and i dont disagree with that take.

[dmjcat]

PAC 12 teams are not treated the same as other conferences. Lose any game other than USC we are not a one seed.

100% disagree - if Gonzaga lost two more regular season games they will still be a number one seed - same with AZ

other teams will lose like Auburn, Kentucky, Kansas, Purdue, and Baylor and those teams already have double the losses of AZ & Gonzaga including losses to unranked opponents, several at home

Arizona has lost twice all season, on the road to opponents ranked 7th and 16th. Auburn lost to unranked Florida and unranked Arkansas. Duke lost to unranked Florida State & Miami and Virginia at home

Baylor lost to unranked Oklahoma Sate at home and at unranked Alabama.

Texas Tech lost to unranked Kansas State and unranked Oklahoma

Kentucky lost at unranked Notre Dame

Arizona has two losses on the year. two losses and both were on the road inside the top 16. the teams above are not done losing either and conf tournament means nothing seeds will be finished unless there is a major collapse

at some point it becomes simple math and we are almost there.

Wrong on so many levels its hard to know where to start.

Losing to Utah is NOT like losing to Oklahoma/Alabama/Notre Dame

Utah has a NET ranking of 122 Ok/Ala/ND have NET rankings of 45/22/57

Losing to a Utah would be a BAD (very bad) loss late in the season. Aspiring #1 seeds don't lose to bad teams late in the season.

Losing to Utah and Colorado would be 2 VERY BAD losses late in the season. The chances of dropping those 2 games and getting a #1 seed would be very slim. Its one thing to be a fan, its another to be a fanboy with blinders on.

[97cats]

you keep banging on the losing to Utah train just like you did on the Oregon State train and so on - you are wrong in this thread 20 times, i just dont think enough of you to call you out.

[dmjcat]

and we have a poster who for three months in this very thread has been wrong about every single thing he has said and failed to come back anywhere along the way and admit that his ridiculous call-outs and positions and takes were wrong.

no, we have a poster that ignores his own wrong takes and lives to search and discover a sliver of opening to disagree for the sake of disagreement on new independent thought, never cleaning up his mess, no just hanging on the frail branch as it breaks failing to ever come back and say he was wrong.

and i dont disagree with that take.

Have you been drinking early today???

Precisely where in this thread have I "Been Wrong". Please provide an example.

[dmjcat]

you keep banging on the losing to Utah train just like you did on the Oregon State train and so on - you are wrong in this thread 20 times, i just dont think enough of you to call you out.

You have a serious reading comprehension issue..........I did NOT predict we would lose to Oregon State. Go Back and read my posts again, this time slowly with your glasses on. (and hopefully in a sober state)

[97cats]

its a long distinguished list of weeks and weeks of you talking to yourself - like i said i dont care or think about you enough, you are a terrible poster and its a waste of my time.

just do yourself a favor and go back and read yourself, but that wont help much as you have poor reading comprehension.

[dmjcat]

its a long distinguished list of weeks and weeks of you talking to yourself - like i said i dont care or think about you enough, you are a terrible poster and its a waste of my time.

just do yourself a favor and go back and read yourself, but that wont help much as you have poor reading comprehension.

Still waiting on you to show me the post where I predicted we would lose to OSU.

You are obviously either: A) Delusional or B) Unable to comprehend the English language......or C) Both

[Alieberman]

Here's the silver lining:

When AZ finishes the season without another loss everyone can claim that they were right.

[97cats]

Wrong and Wrong.

Using your logic we could lose to Oregon State and Colorado.............end up 27-4 and get a #1 seed?

And you don't even factor in the PAC12 tournament. We could get upset by an asu (heaven forbid) in the 1st round.

this post here is just another example of you being contrarian for the case of being contrarian - i made a take based on a record at seasons end assuming AZ would win against Oregon State and therefore made a take based on that.

your argument here is what you do, the what if coward game to poke holes in something i said, and you do it aggressively.
then the games happen and you are nowhere to vcome back and say, hey look, AZ didnt lose to Oregon State so your assumptions are correct so far, i was wrong cause they didnt lose...and you move on to the next strawman argument.

there are 20 other of these all the way back to early december when i outlined how AZ had a tremendous chance to be top 8 in the field.

you went to no end to tell me i was wrong, and once again i wasnt, you were.

i will not do this any longer as its not fun and boring.

but you are a boring poster who brings nothing to the table except for being a strawman.

[dmjcat]

Wrong and Wrong.

Using your logic we could lose to Oregon State and Colorado.............end up 27-4 and get a #1 seed?

And you don't even factor in the PAC12 tournament. We could get upset by an asu (heaven forbid) in the 1st round.

this post here is just another example of you being contrarian for the case of being contrarian - i made a take based on a record at seasons end assuming AZ would win against Oregon State and therefore made a take based on that.

your argument here is what you do, the what if coward game to poke holes in something i said, and you do it aggressively.
then the games happen and you are nowhere to vcome back and say, hey look, AZ didnt lose to Oregon State so your assumptions are correct so far, i was wrong cause they didnt lose...and you move on to the next strawman argument.

there are 20 other of these all the way back to early december when i outlined how AZ had a tremendous chance to be top 8 in the field.

you went to no end to tell me i was wrong, and once again i wasnt, you were.

i will not do this any longer as its not fun and boring.

but you are a boring poster who brings nothing to the table except for being a strawman.

Still waiting on you to find that post where I predicted the UA would lose OSU.

And once again, I am not predicting that we will lose to Utah & Colorado. I am merely pointing out that you have predicted that if we do we will still be a #1 seed.,...I happen to disagree with that.

Do you understand that???

[97cats]

Do you understand that???

yes, and do you understand that i know you disagree and thats great, it what the board is for.

but, do you understand that if things dont roll with what you think, with what you think will happen (and potentially they could) you will never come back here and bring it up one time.

ever

do you understand that?

[Olsondogg]

Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience.
Mark Twain

[dmjcat]

Do you understand that???

yes, and do you understand that i know you disagree and thats great, it what the board is for.

but, do you understand that if things dont roll with what you think, with what you think will happen (and potentially they could) you will never come back here and bring it up one time.

ever

do you understand?

Wow, you really do have a SERIOUS reading comprehension issue.

Once again. I do NOT think we will lose to Utah & Coloirado.

YOU have predicted that we can lose to both and will still end up a #1 seed.........":Bulletproof/99.9%"

I disagree with your prediction that we can lose to both of those schools and still be a #1 seed. I am NOT disagreeing that we will probably NOT lose to both Utah & Colorado.

Do you understand???

[dmjcat]

Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience.
Mark Twain

And you sir, are the perfect example of that.

[97cats]

Wow, you really do have a SERIOUS reading comprehension issue.

Once again. I do NOT think we will lose to Utah & Coloirado.

YOU have predicted that we can lose to both and will still end up a #1 seed.........":Bulletproof/99.9%"

I disagree with your prediction that we can lose to both of those schools and still be a #1 seed. I am NOT disagreeing that we will probably NOT lose to both Utah & Colorado.

Do you understand???

so whats the argument? you can play both sides? if they win you said they were going to anyway? and if they lose you can say maybe (cause still time to play out) that you were correct? so you just want to be the guy who argues? have both sides?

i mean, this is pretty predictable and really lazy you dont have to agree with me

take a position so youre never wrong asshat

[Alieberman]

8 ranked teams play today... many on the road

Nova at UConn is the only ranked vs ranked team happening

[dmjcat]

Wow, you really do have a SERIOUS reading comprehension issue.

Once again. I do NOT think we will lose to Utah & Coloirado.

YOU have predicted that we can lose to both and will still end up a #1 seed.........":Bulletproof/99.9%"

I disagree with your prediction that we can lose to both of those schools and still be a #1 seed. I am NOT disagreeing that we will probably NOT lose to both Utah & Colorado.

Do you understand???

so whats the argument? you can play both sides? if they win you said they were going to anyway? and if they lose you can say maybe (cause still time to play out) that you were correct? so you just want to be the guy who argues? have both sides?

i mean, this is pretty predictable and really lazy you dont have to agree with me

take a position so youre never wrong asshat

My argument is with your prediction that we can lose to both Utah and Colorado (and the P12 tourney doesn't matter) and we still have a 99.9% chance of a #1 seed. Its as simple as that. I can't think of any recent #1 seed who has lost to a Net ranked 120 team late in the season (and then again to a Colorado) and ended up with a #1 seed. Thats my "position"

Oh, and I am still waiting for you show me the post where I predicted we would lose to OSU.

[Olsondogg]

Iowa ranked and Mich St. isn’t.

Sparty could use a road dub to justify the higher seed.

[Beachcat97]

If we get to the FF, I'll be sending drinks to 97, dmj and all the other board stalwarts, regardless of any disagreements we've ever had.

[azcat49]

Since they started with the early projections of the probable 1 seeds, no second overall projected 1 seed has ever missed being a 1 seed.

A couple times the fourth #1 lost its grip and once the third overall team lost its 1 seed so when 97 says we are close to wrapping it up, well he has historical evidence as we are likely the overall #2 after this weekend.

Could we lose, sure. The issue is that there is a mountain of evidence that we won’t and even if we do (as many of those teams above lost as well), so will those right behind the top 4 seeds.

So out of 20 (5 years of 1 seeds) teams, only about 3 were displaced at this point of the season and none were the projected 1 and 2 overall top seeds.

[97cats]

Bracketology: Arizona moves to No. 2 overall seed, jumping over Auburn after its loss to Florida

https://www.cbssports.com/college-baske ... cketology/

[EastCoastCat]

Since I'm watching the Abraham Lincoln documentary on the History Channel I thought this line, reading some posters comments on this thread was appropriate:

[TheCat]

Since they started with the early projections of the probable 1 seeds, no second overall projected 1 seed has ever missed being a 1 seed.

A couple times the fourth #1 lost its grip and once the third overall team lost its 1 seed so when 97 says we are close to wrapping it up, well he has historical evidence as we are likely the overall #2 after this weekend.

Could we lose, sure. The issue is that there is a mountain of evidence that we won’t and even if we do (as many of those teams above lost as well), so will those right behind the top 4 seeds.

So out of 20 (5 years of 1 seeds) teams, only about 3 were displaced at this point of the season and none were the projected 1 and 2 overall top seeds.

49 was that the initial seeding or when? If it was the initial seeding we were number 3. I understand both arguments and I do not think we lose to either CU or Utah. We beat both at home by 20+. But if we did lose and all other teams continue to win (big if) I don't believe we will be a one seed. I do think we can lose on the road to USC and still be a one seed. We have five games left. Let's just win them all. If we win the next 3 we have won the PAC. I think there is a chance (slim) that we could win the PAC by 4 games which I can't recall ever being done before. I still wonder if we could have been undefeated in the PAC if Teb was healthy at UCLA and I know that has never been done. When PAC teams lose the effect on ranking and polls seem to be exaggerated. SO I think the solution is to BTFD and win them all.

[dovecanyoncat]

Here's the silver lining:

When AZ finishes the season without another loss everyone can claim that they were right.

Ahem, I get to claim causation for sacrificing my RAP prospects. Don't youse guys understand how this really works?

[Alieberman]

Here's the silver lining:

When AZ finishes the season without another loss everyone can claim that they were right.

Ahem, I get to claim causation for sacrificing my RAP prospects. Don't youse guys understand how this really works?

Your RAP, my underwear.... we all play a part....

[azcat49]

Since they started with the early projections of the probable 1 seeds, no second overall projected 1 seed has ever missed being a 1 seed.

A couple times the fourth #1 lost its grip and once the third overall team lost its 1 seed so when 97 says we are close to wrapping it up, well he has historical evidence as we are likely the overall #2 after this weekend.

Could we lose, sure. The issue is that there is a mountain of evidence that we won’t and even if we do (as many of those teams above lost as well), so will those right behind the top 4 seeds.

So out of 20 (5 years of 1 seeds) teams, only about 3 were displaced at this point of the season and none were the projected 1 and 2 overall top seeds.

49 was that the initial seeding or when? If it was the initial seeding we were number 3. I understand both arguments and I do not think we lose to either CU or Utah. We beat both at home by 20+. But if we did lose and all other teams continue to win (big if) I don't believe we will be a one seed. I do think we can lose on the road to USC and still be a one seed. We have five games left. Let's just win them all. If we win the next 3 we have won the PAC. I think there is a chance (slim) that we could win the PAC by 4 games which I can't recall ever being done before. I still wonder if we could have been undefeated in the PAC if Teb was healthy at UCLA and I know that has never been done. When PAC teams lose the effect on ranking and polls seem to be exaggerated. SO I think the solution is to BTFD and win them all.

It was quoted I believe from the first seeding and then how they entered the tourney.

Obviously that last #1 seed had the most volatility while only one overall #3 seed was displaced.

I do think if we win n 3 of the last 5 we keep a 1 seed and there seems to be sufficient evidence of that

[dovecanyoncat]

Here's the silver lining:

When AZ finishes the season without another loss everyone can claim that they were right.

Ahem, I get to claim causation for sacrificing my RAP prospects. Don't youse guys understand how this really works?

Your RAP, my underwear.... we all play a part....

You lead, I follow. I live to serve.