2024-25 Arizona Basketball

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Chicat
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Re: 2024-25 Arizona Basketball

Post by Chicat »

TheCat wrote: Wed Jan 29, 2025 8:32 pm Well you and I might feel that way but someone took the time and posted the results of the first five minutes with ADO and it wasn't the reality that he is detrimental .
Except that I posted the results that we are about 15% more efficient on offense the rest of the game, so he may in fact be detrimental.
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Re: 2024-25 Arizona Basketball

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Chicat wrote: Wed Jan 29, 2025 8:48 pm
TheCat wrote: Wed Jan 29, 2025 8:32 pm Well you and I might feel that way but someone took the time and posted the results of the first five minutes with ADO and it wasn't the reality that he is detrimental .
Except that I posted the results that we are about 15% more efficient on offense the rest of the game, so he may in fact be detrimental.
Hmmm, I thought that ADO's liability was on defense...

In those first five minutes vs ISU, who made TO's, who missed shots, etc.

As I recall on the chat, fans were complaining about "sloppy basketball".
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Re: 2024-25 Arizona Basketball

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pc in NM wrote: Wed Jan 29, 2025 9:32 pm
Chicat wrote: Wed Jan 29, 2025 8:48 pm
TheCat wrote: Wed Jan 29, 2025 8:32 pm Well you and I might feel that way but someone took the time and posted the results of the first five minutes with ADO and it wasn't the reality that he is detrimental .
Except that I posted the results that we are about 15% more efficient on offense the rest of the game, so he may in fact be detrimental.
Hmmm, I thought that ADO's liability was on defense...
A lot of our offense is spurred by our defense. Forced bad shots and turnovers leading to runouts is a big part of our offense. C’mon, I know you watch the games.
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Re: 2024-25 Arizona Basketball

Post by Winger »

Chicat wrote: Wed Jan 29, 2025 9:46 pm
pc in NM wrote: Wed Jan 29, 2025 9:32 pm
Chicat wrote: Wed Jan 29, 2025 8:48 pm
TheCat wrote: Wed Jan 29, 2025 8:32 pm Well you and I might feel that way but someone took the time and posted the results of the first five minutes with ADO and it wasn't the reality that he is detrimental .
Except that I posted the results that we are about 15% more efficient on offense the rest of the game, so he may in fact be detrimental.
Hmmm, I thought that ADO's liability was on defense...
A lot of our offense is spurred by our defense. Forced bad shots and turnovers leading to runouts is a big part of our offense. C’mon, I know you watch the games.
You’re all over and on top of this issues and it’s also complicated.

To date, statistically, taking in to account both ends of the floor, Arizona’s best lineup is: Bradley, Love, Lewis, Bryant, Veesaar.

To assess the +/- of Lloyd’s starting ADO you’d need to look at alot of things, some of which could include:

1. The team’s +/- when he goes out (i.e. he doesn’t always play the entire first 5 minutes of each half).
2. The team’s adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies for those minutes in comparison to those of other lineups or the team overall.
3. What ADO specifically did during those minutes (FGA, FGM, FTA, fouls drawn and committed, boards, ast, to, etc).
4. And then you’d have to dig in to the film. Because that is the only way to decipher how many of the opposition’s buckets were “his fault”, and the opposite.

You could add some eye test as well and here I think it’s important to note that the opinion of Arizona’s fans as to which lineup is Lloyd’s best matches the statistics to date.

If we all came to the conclusion that Lloyd was not starting his best lineup we could then debate why a coach might do that.

I have been posting something slightly different however: there are opponents where Lloyd knows going in, before the game starts, that ADO has “no chance” against and he starts him regardless.

My question is: why the F does he do that?
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Re: 2024-25 Arizona Basketball

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Chicat wrote: Wed Jan 29, 2025 9:46 pm
pc in NM wrote: Wed Jan 29, 2025 9:32 pm
Chicat wrote: Wed Jan 29, 2025 8:48 pm
TheCat wrote: Wed Jan 29, 2025 8:32 pm Well you and I might feel that way but someone took the time and posted the results of the first five minutes with ADO and it wasn't the reality that he is detrimental .
Except that I posted the results that we are about 15% more efficient on offense the rest of the game, so he may in fact be detrimental.
Hmmm, I thought that ADO's liability was on defense...
A lot of our offense is spurred by our defense. Forced bad shots and turnovers leading to runouts is a big part of our offense. C’mon, I know you watch the games.
When Arizona struggles, it's primarily in the half-court offense. I don't know, but I guess that 60%-75% of FG's attempted come from half-court offense.

Anyone got data on this??

BTW, you're welcome to participate in game chats/threads in real time and point instances out.
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Re: 2024-25 Arizona Basketball

Post by Chicat »

Winger wrote: Thu Jan 30, 2025 7:20 am
Chicat wrote: Wed Jan 29, 2025 9:46 pm
pc in NM wrote: Wed Jan 29, 2025 9:32 pm
Chicat wrote: Wed Jan 29, 2025 8:48 pm
TheCat wrote: Wed Jan 29, 2025 8:32 pm Well you and I might feel that way but someone took the time and posted the results of the first five minutes with ADO and it wasn't the reality that he is detrimental .
Except that I posted the results that we are about 15% more efficient on offense the rest of the game, so he may in fact be detrimental.
Hmmm, I thought that ADO's liability was on defense...
A lot of our offense is spurred by our defense. Forced bad shots and turnovers leading to runouts is a big part of our offense. C’mon, I know you watch the games.
You’re all over and on top of this issues and it’s also complicated.

To date, statistically, taking in to account both ends of the floor, Arizona’s best lineup is: Bradley, Love, Lewis, Bryant, Veesaar.

To assess the +/- of Lloyd’s starting ADO you’d need to look at alot of things, some of which could include:

1. The team’s +/- when he goes out (i.e. he doesn’t always play the entire first 5 minutes of each half).
2. The team’s adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies for those minutes in comparison to those of other lineups or the team overall.
3. What ADO specifically did during those minutes (FGA, FGM, FTA, fouls drawn and committed, boards, ast, to, etc).
4. And then you’d have to dig in to the film. Because that is the only way to decipher how many of the opposition’s buckets were “his fault”, and the opposite.

You could add some eye test as well and here I think it’s important to note that the opinion of Arizona’s fans as to which lineup is Lloyd’s best matches the statistics to date.

If we all came to the conclusion that Lloyd was not starting his best lineup we could then debate why a coach might do that.

I have been posting something slightly different however: there are opponents where Lloyd knows going in, before the game starts, that ADO has “no chance” against and he starts him regardless.

My question is: why the F does he do that?
I will readily admit I’m using crude data and ballpark stats to back up the good ol’ Chicat Eye Test, but much like you I see Lloyd trot out a lineup against teams where he has to know he is putting us at a disadvantage right out of the gate. And I have no answer as to why beyond managing psyches.
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Re: 2024-25 Arizona Basketball

Post by Alieberman »

Do the results (wins and losses) mean anything pre / post starting lineup change? I mean... can you really argue with the results?

And what about team chemistry? Do you not risk fucking it up with a lineup change? (Assuming KJ is totally 100% on board with his 6th man spot)

I understand why many think this is a head scratcher. I'm certainly not arguing that ADO is a top 5 player on this team. (or top 7!)

I just think Tommy must see this as his best overall scheme for this team.... and I am loving the direction this team is trending in
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Re: 2024-25 Arizona Basketball

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Tommy could easily stay with the same starting lineup and then reassess at halftime and make adjustments. There was no reason on Monday night to completely give up our halftime lead. ISU went right at Delly and took complete advantage of his defensive liabilities to start the 2nd half. NBA coached change lineups all the time depending on who their playing
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Re: 2024-25 Arizona Basketball

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To me that 16-0 run to almost end the half (ended up being 16/5) was the best stretch of play all season considering who we were playing

Our OT was also very good as we executed well in the whole period.
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Re: 2024-25 Arizona Basketball

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azcat49 wrote: Thu Jan 30, 2025 9:55 am To me that 16-0 run to almost end the half (ended up being 16/5) was the best stretch of play all season considering who we were playing

Our OT was also very good as we executed well in the whole period.
I thought it interesting Veesaar started the OT period, and played well. I imagine to give Tobe a blow, who I think came in after 90 seconds.

Like has often been said, especially by me, like Lute said, it's now who starts, but who is out there in crunch time.

Also that ISU completely gave up in OT. That was really strange. Instead of setting up plays, we will just drive into the paint against 3 UA defenders and get stripped.
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Re: 2024-25 Arizona Basketball

Post by azcat49 »

It was interesting that we adjusted well to how physical the game was. Early on we were on our heels but by the end, we were dictating the physicality
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Re: 2024-25 Arizona Basketball

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Merkin wrote: Thu Jan 30, 2025 9:58 am
azcat49 wrote: Thu Jan 30, 2025 9:55 am To me that 16-0 run to almost end the half (ended up being 16/5) was the best stretch of play all season considering who we were playing

Our OT was also very good as we executed well in the whole period.
I thought it interesting Veesaar started the OT period, and played well. I imagine to give Tobe a blow, who I think came in after 90 seconds.

Like has often been said, especially by me, like Lute said, it's now who starts, but who is out there in crunch time.

Also that ISU completely gave up in OT. That was really strange. Instead of setting up plays, we will just drive into the paint against 3 UA defenders and get stripped.
Caleb's shot had to be both shocking and deflating for them - took the wind out of the Cyclones. :D

CTL was switching Henri and Tobey then - Henri for offense, Tobey for defense - Henri really couldn't defend their big effectively, which is why he only got a few more minutes that ADO
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Re: 2024-25 Arizona Basketball

Post by EastCoastCat »

Btw, let’s give up for Tobe. He’s been a beast for us lately.

Starting to play like we thought he would based on what we saw last year.
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Re: 2024-25 Arizona Basketball

Post by Merkin »

pc in NM wrote: Thu Jan 30, 2025 10:50 am CTL was switching Henri and Tobey then - Henri for offense, Tobey for defense - Henri really couldn't defend their big effectively, which is why he only got a few more minutes that ADO
Like you mentioned about ADO being a pretty good perimeter passer, so is Henri. You can see the confidence the other players have in him in getting him the ball on top of the key. You see other bigs never see the ball out there. He gets more touches per play than any center since Tarczewski. He also runs the court really well.
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Re: 2024-25 Arizona Basketball

Post by 84Cat »

Love Tobe!
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Re: 2024-25 Arizona Basketball

Post by Winger »

PC - currently 41% of Arizona’s shot attempts are in transition/the initial 10 sec of the shot clock.

On which Arizona is shooting an eFG% of 65% (this is why you want to prevent transition, every team shoots a better FG% on transition attempts) partly because it takes 52% of those transition attempts at the rim where it shoots 76%.
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Re: 2024-25 Arizona Basketball

Post by MrKyle »

Merkin wrote: Thu Jan 30, 2025 11:11 am
pc in NM wrote: Thu Jan 30, 2025 10:50 am CTL was switching Henri and Tobey then - Henri for offense, Tobey for defense - Henri really couldn't defend their big effectively, which is why he only got a few more minutes that ADO
Like you mentioned about ADO being a pretty good perimeter passer, so is Henri. You can see the confidence the other players have in him in getting him the ball on top of the key. You see other bigs never see the ball out there. He gets more touches per play than any center since Tarczewski. He also runs the court really well.
Exactly - the offense does seems to run much smoother with HV getting ball at top of key/working with him there. There are many more options the opposition has to defend against with Henri as well. Not just a screen setter for sure!
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Re: 2024-25 Arizona Basketball

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Re: 2024-25 Arizona Basketball

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That is a perfect example of why +/- is usually total horseshit
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Re: 2024-25 Arizona Basketball

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84Cat wrote: Thu Jan 30, 2025 11:17 amLove Tobe!
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Re: 2024-25 Arizona Basketball

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"Listen, when you get home tonight you're going to be confronted by the instinct to drink alone. Trust that instinct. Manage the pain. Don't try to be a hero."

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Re: 2024-25 Arizona Basketball

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Merkin wrote: Thu Jan 30, 2025 9:58 am
azcat49 wrote: Thu Jan 30, 2025 9:55 am To me that 16-0 run to almost end the half (ended up being 16/5) was the best stretch of play all season considering who we were playing

Our OT was also very good as we executed well in the whole period.
I thought it interesting Veesaar started the OT period, and played well. I imagine to give Tobe a blow, who I think came in after 90 seconds.
I was thinking Veesaar started the OT since he's taller and he had a better chance of winning the tap and giving us the first possession.
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Re: 2024-25 Arizona Basketball

Post by TheCat »

Chicat wrote: Wed Jan 29, 2025 8:48 pm
TheCat wrote: Wed Jan 29, 2025 8:32 pm Well you and I might feel that way but someone took the time and posted the results of the first five minutes with ADO and it wasn't the reality that he is detrimental .
Except that I posted the results that we are about 15% more efficient on offense the rest of the game, so he may in fact be detrimental.
So ADO didn't play in those other minutes? Listen he sucks as a defender but he is our best shooter. I don't know if it is an advantage for KJ to see some game action before coming in but compared to the beginning of the year he is more active and also does not foul as much. I think the potential replacement to ADO will be Carter but he gets abused on defense also (although can block shots). Since you pointed out our offense is spurred by our defense do you think ADO could be helped by having our best defender on the court with him instead of replacing him. I trust our coach to figure this out because he has the most skin in the game and knows basketball and his team.
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Re: 2024-25 Arizona Basketball

Post by Chicat »

TheCat wrote: Thu Jan 30, 2025 4:53 pm
Chicat wrote: Wed Jan 29, 2025 8:48 pm
TheCat wrote: Wed Jan 29, 2025 8:32 pm Well you and I might feel that way but someone took the time and posted the results of the first five minutes with ADO and it wasn't the reality that he is detrimental .
Except that I posted the results that we are about 15% more efficient on offense the rest of the game, so he may in fact be detrimental.
So ADO didn't play in those other minutes?
Of course he does. And we need him to play (some nights more than others depending on matchups) but my issue is with him starting.
TheCat wrote: Thu Jan 30, 2025 4:53 pmListen he sucks as a defender but he is our best shooter.
He’s our best shooter … from distance.

In fact, he’s really our only consistent threat from distance, but only on catch-&-shoots since he can’t really create his own shot so he’s taken out of the offense pretty easily.

It’s on Lloyd for not recognizing the hole we have in our offense and filling it with a legit 3 and D who could get his own shot. Hopefully he has that fixed for next year.
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Re: 2024-25 Arizona Basketball

Post by Winger »

ADO is Arizona’s worst shooter on 2FGA.
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Re: 2024-25 Arizona Basketball

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Winger wrote: Thu Jan 30, 2025 7:34 pm ADO is Arizona’s worst shooter on 2FGA.
That happens when you don't shoot them...He has probably the best off the high glass bank layup I have seen in a while.

He also has the best TO ratio on the team. So what. Not sure what your point is. He is a situational player that was brought in to help the offense by capitalizing on his main skill.

We have already establish that you think highly of your basketball evaluation skills, that you think our team does not fit together well, that our coach is not very good despite the results he has demonstrated and the trust of USA basketball, and ADO should never set foot on the court as a starter. You also laid out a case against Tobey, Townsend and you hate Love and our Euro are soft. Okay we got it.

This team could lose every game they have going forward. They live right on the edge. Their decision making can be flawed. They are not a typical team but they all play hard and I have enjoyed watching the struggles and the accomplishments. You don't. It isn't that no one doesn't see what you do (except soft Euro's) it is that when we lose we are deeply disappointed but don't see it as a player or coach character flaw. There are players on another team that are trying to be successful.

I hope you can take the time to enjoy the game and not be critical of every moment. It took me a while to learn that . My hands still shake in close games and I always have trouble sleeping win or lose. It is still fun, I always have hope. I trust our coach although sometime I don't understand the decisions he makes but I know he has forgotten more about basketball then I will ever know.
Last edited by TheCat on Thu Jan 30, 2025 9:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2024-25 Arizona Basketball

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TheCat wrote: Thu Jan 30, 2025 8:28 pm
Winger wrote: Thu Jan 30, 2025 7:34 pm ADO is Arizona’s worst shooter on 2FGA.
He has probably the best off the glass high bank layup I have seen in a while.
Hard to miss this, his go-to move. But I wonder if he largely pulls it off against lesser opponents that he can beat off the dribble. Not that I can make that judgement.
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Re: 2024-25 Arizona Basketball

Post by TheCat »

dovecanyoncat wrote: Thu Jan 30, 2025 8:41 pm
TheCat wrote: Thu Jan 30, 2025 8:28 pm
Winger wrote: Thu Jan 30, 2025 7:34 pm ADO is Arizona’s worst shooter on 2FGA.
He has probably the best off the glass high bank layup I have seen in a while.
Hard to miss this, his go-to move. But I wonder if he largely pulls it off against lesser opponents that he can beat off the dribble. Not that I can make that judgement.
I think it is he is convinced it is going to be blocked if he doesn't. Who knows.
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